What the spread of universal basic-income schemes says about Americas safety net
economist.com
economist.com
As with all these trials, this is not universal.
Universal means we treat 'basic income' as a fundamental right, like public healthcare (in the countries that have it). This means Gates and Bezos would also get $500 as a tax break or income.
Unless we decouple this money from our own 'fairness' biases then it will never be _universal_.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/1/8/18173678/tr...
It strikes me that the only way for the goal of UBI to work is exactly for it to be not be universal.
Nothing is stopping you (or someone) for simply importing those and selling them for a dollar, esp. if you can afford to take a hit on the margin -- and you can cuz your rent is paid by UBI.
Like, rents and COL are already insanely out of tune with incomes in many places and we don't have UBI.
There's no program akin to what is generally just called welfare in Ontario. (Technically known as "Ontario Works" which gives you an idea of the intent of the program.) The maximum amount is somewhat under 500 USD a month, and includes some things like drug insurance or maybe a transit pass. depending on municipality. Long-term recipients may get placed in various work training or work placement programs of varying quality. It's possible (and encouraged) to earn income while receiving welfare; the welfare is reduced $1 for each $2 earned. A person can be disqualified for not complying with program requirements to find work or engage in training, but it's pretty rare in practice from what I know.
The number of long-term recipients is quite low anyway. ~120,000 single adult recipients, about 40,000 for 1+ year, out of a population of 15 million. Total welfare spending by the province is about $2 billion out of a $160 billion budget. We are not particularly generous with our social programs compared to some comparably wealthy European countries, for example. But when you have absolutely no income, even that pittance seems to matter a lot.
And income requirements just make it a UBI with an adjusted tax code.
Also isn't this:
> They are paid for by the flood of money made available by the federal government for relief schemes during the worst of the pandemic.
a misuse of funds that were supposed to be returned? (or am I misremembering the "supposed to be returned" part from something else?)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income_pilots
I suggest that there's nothing particularly special about the US's UBI pilots.
The amount of free money given to companies and corporations in the pandemic was outrageous, except that Americans are conditioned to accept any and all corporate giveaways without any oversight or even debate.
Much of the call for UBI is based on the recognition that living in America only really works if you have money. Giving everybody "enough" money seems simpler than reforming all of our broken systems. (Opinions are divided on whether UBI should replace, or only supplement, existing welfare schemes).
Supporting quote from the article:
> Americans who fall on hard times can access a panoply of different schemes, at both a local and a federal level. There are disability benefits; food stamps; section 8 housing vouchers; Medicaid; and unemployment insurance (which is paid for and administered by states, but in crises often expanded federally). Most of this comes with an extraordinary amount of bureaucracy, however, and many people fall through the cracks—for example, because they do not have a permanent address, or they fail to file the right forms, or they do not qualify. Local governments generally do not have the data to even identify the people most in need.
I also think this is country thing. Europe tends to have job markets where private jobs aren't much different than government ones. In the US the difference is stark. Government jobs are basically for life while private ones can fire you the next minute. For all it's drawbacks the ability to fire quickly has a marked effect on business efficiency. There's potentially a large efficiency gain by moving employment from government to private sector.
Or at least so the argument goes.
If we want to maintain a high-quality healthcare system, then the only option will be to reduce demand through incentivizing people to make healthier lifestyle choices. That will require sweeping, systemic changes and may not be politically feasible.
Also, what good is a high quality healthcare system if it is only accessible to a fraction of society?
What's the alternative? It's not going to be politically or economically practical to devote a larger share of GDP to healthcare, and minor improvements from increasing automation or reducing waste won't be sufficient.
Because of corruption of politics by vested interests that will vote out politicians that actually try to change things (e.g. by allowing insulin to be imported, or by allowing home construction).
A UBI is more widely palatable because it isn't threatening to stop anyone's unjust gravy train.
Except everyone who peddles the existing programs UBI is supposed to be replacing.
Navigating bureaucracy involves skill and willpower. A lot of schemes rely on people failing at it (public and private).
There is so much wrong with many of America's systems like health care and housing, with UBI a bandaid solution. Fix the systems first, then see if you even need UBI to begin with...
Because poor people are sucked dry now so they need injection of fresh money so they can be sucked further by the rich.
You give money to the bottom, it cycles back up to the rich through landlording, goods sold, etc.
It's a perfect microcosm of debate today. Left wingers get to propose a solution. Right wingers get to call the left wingers dumb idealists. Left wingers get to call right wingers evil racists, etc.
If you think you made some grand point, consider that this can be determined in like 10 seconds of internet searching. And in fact you're just further proving my point that supporters have absolutely no idea about actual budgets.
Eliminate all military, and you can increase the UBI from about 15k to 18k per year.
Thanks for mentioning this though, as it's exactly the proof i needed that left wingers really dont know how a budget works.
The nice thing about UBI being automatic and not means tested is it means anybody can lose their job or quit and immediately start receiving benefits. Rather than what we have now where it’s stressful and bureaucratic to get benefits, and once you are on benefits you are faced with a welfare cliff.
The primary reason is that it's roughly 2.5x the cost. And given that social security is allready the largest expenditure and it's going to be unaffordable in it's current state, I am skeptical.
If that alone is not convincing, consider that most social security recipients receive more than the proposed UBI. And as social security was income tested, you would effectively be transferring social security payments (which are ostensibly a promise/mandatory savings plan) from retirees who paid their dues, to everyone else.
And consider that many benefits are that are covered now would not be available in UBI.
What about people who need intensive nursing? That cannot be covered with their UBI.
I actually like the general idea of replacing a patchwork of county/state/fed programs. I also like the idea of eliminating the welfare cliff.
I just think the amounts being considered are so huge that it's just infeasible.
Of course, you can propose a plan for how this will be paid for.
But sure, I'd accept there'd be medical care it couldn't realistically be expected to cover.
Does this mean that they can't be collecting SNAP or medicaid? or?
Speaking of those other programs (brought up in the article), I with someone could make a phone app that managed the applications and such for people who need them. Some are disabled and need assistance; some are working two jobs to make ands meet, and all of them, by definition, have troubles (transport, kids, jobs) getting to the required meetings. Almost everybody has a phone; many have no other device. Having everything assembled ahead of time, with generated forms that could be printed out at the library, could make life easier for applicants and save time (thus taxpayer money) for the people working in social services.
This would have to be a charity-supported effort, and would need ongoing maintenance.
And of course, making life easier for applicants is against state policy in some jurisdictions.
All things considered, it encouraged bad financial habits. It'll never be practical.
UBIs solve all this.
It's still quite significant and over the decades prices have tended to adjust such that the benefit itself is never quite enough to retire on.
So, I have no hopes that UBI can succeed. But to call other forms of support UBI, like the article does to handing out $500 to support a few thousand, is a disgrace. There should be a safety net for poverty, a sufficient minimum wage, and socialized/nationalized health care. Lotteries and other utilitarian approaches from people who would like to call themselves benefactors are ridiculous.
How UBI is funded matters more to me than UBI itself so most studies now mostly focus upon allaying the fears of the "but the poors will inefficiently use their UBI" projection / conjecture that is basically not supported by any evidence thus far across the globe. For example, national LVT to fund UBI is nothing like a national VAT. I'm not a silver bullet solution kind of person but LVT along with changes to how we fund and develop infrastructure along with our insane, inefficient transportation policies seems to be a large part of the problem with many cross-cutting concerns into real estate value and therefore rents.
I wonder how much the scale would be different from the current remote work, plus at which point (if reached) those lower cost areas would start increasing in price. It is interesting too to think about second order effects of having most UBI and not working people live more in some areas.
Having a lot of the poor simply leave these metro areas can reduce some demand for lower income housing as well as increase wages for the lower skill jobs of a region - it’s been shown repeatedly throughout the past few years in every country basically and how the stimulus checks didn’t do anything to rents either. When our poor don’t stomp on each other they can get some better market leverage through indirect collective action.
My idea for that is progressive property tax.
The more property you own, the higher percentage of its value you pay each year as a tax.
It's so crazy, it just might work!
Also a lot of housing is empty because it's more profitable to keep it empty rather than sell.
Summary
A new flat tax on all income, in addition to existing taxes.
Distributions are exactly equal to all people
Tax revenue is set aside for immediate redistribution. It never touches the general budget
Distributions are based exactly on the revenue from the tax. There is no commitment to any particular amount
Details
The tax would be a percentage of income that is the same for everybody. No brackets or exemptions. 10% might be a good place to start.
All Income must be included in the taxable amount, including payments from this program. No exceptions. It particular it would include capital gains, dividends and carried interest. ALL income from ALL sources.
The definition of ‘person’ who is eligible would require a bit of thought. At a minimum, all adult citizens should be included. Whether to include children or various types of non-citizens is debatable. In any case, anyone eligible for distribution must also pay the tax.
Tax is set aside for immediate redistribution (say, monthly). It never touches the general budget. It requires no ongoing authorization. It never gets invested in anything (definitely not government bonds) or held for any substantial length of time.
The calculations on which the payments are made might happen somewhat less frequently than the payments themselves, for example annual calculations but monthly payments. This probably makes things a bit more stable for people in the short-term.
Let’s not create a new administrative agency, let’s just use the Social Security Office. They’ve been doing a fine-enough job distributing cash to millions of Americans and have all the infrastructure in place. And this program is similar to SSI anyway.
Advantages:
The system is self-adjusting. Because there is no guaranteed payment amount and it’s based just on the amount collected from the tax, then as people work less, the payment will be lower and people at the margin will more likely choose to work, pushing the tax revenue back up. As more people work, the tax and corresponding payments go up. There will always be some free riders – but that’s a feature, not a bug. If you have enough money and don’t want to work anymore – then don’t. That’s okay. The important thing is that because this program wouldn’t be means-tested, then there is never a dis-incentive to working more if you want more money. This contrasts with something like unemployment insurance and all other means-tested government programs, which DO penalize you for working more, by reducing or eliminating your benefit.
Not subject to the whims of politicians. Because the revenue from the tax never enters the general budget or is invested in any way, there is no way for politicians to use it for their own ends, or to tie it up in political battles.
It preserves freedom and dignity. An important part of being a free person is the ability to choose for yourself. It’s something that many of us take for granted, but any program that comes with strings attached, vouchers, subsidies or earmarks is a way for politicians and bureaucrats to control what the beneficiaries do and thereby take away their freedoms, dignity and basic humanity. Distributions from this program will be made equally to all, with no strings. People have the dignity and responsibility to choose for themselves.
We can't have UBI without stirring housing considerably.
So I propose progressive real estate tax. The more property you own (directly or through subsidiaries) the higher percentage of its value you pay every year as a tax.
As a result of this, large property owners should start dropping properties on the market like hot potatoes making housing affordable and the tax can be used to finance UBI to help poor people pay for mortgages which will make becoming propery owner even easier.
Detaching it from income can ease the decision who should get it. Anyone with a pulse is fine
The rest of your ideas are fine, like separate bucket and no commitments.
Main challenges of this system would be tracking property ownership and property prices.
Personally I'd prefer to avoid doing too much work like issuing licences, or policing what small owners can do with their properties. However things that are being done like tracking ownership, pricing for the purposes of tax and collecting tax should be done as simply as possible and ruthlessly. So the market can figure what's optimal in this new reality. In a decade we could check if further tuning is necessary.
Those people at the margins are going into minimum wage jobs, and contributing only ~10% of that minimum wage towards the budget, which gets redistributed to everyone. That's not going likely to push a below-subsistence income level very much at all, and in practice the causality is more likely to work the other way round (tax receipts drops in a recession along with employment opportunities; the benefit payouts decrease at the time people are most likely to need it).
If the plan is in addition to welfare payments people depend upon to live on, that may be less of an issue. If it isn't, then some of the people that most need it are going to be worse off.
This is a reminder that the United States has several Welfare Cliffs - places where, if you make $X more than a certain amount, an entire benefit disappears completely; and, was previously a considerable benefit.
For all the people that talk about educational ignorance when it comes to "I make more money, so now I make less because I'm in a new tax bracket", in the US, we actually do have one of those cliffs with regards to Medicaid, etc, at around $40k / year.
And don't get me started on the "disabled people can't actually get a job because they'll lose their disability check" situation.
As a whole, this country's policies really need to update when it comes to facilitating people to get out of traps they find themselves in - because the trap is actually safer than outside the trap - they literally make more money and have a higher standard of living. A poor person making money legally should never be a punishment.
Separate thought: with so much focus on the oppressed and downtrodden in our politics these days, how is it that obvious problems like the parent commenter mentions are not being fixed?
Why aren't reasonable people of both parties trying to create the right incentive structures for the poor at least in areas where they both agree?
That's because these programs start with idea of having societal benefits but eventually persist to serve themselves (and the people they employ). Elevating people out of your program makes the peogram less necessary (along with the voters it employs).
The Government Program Industrial Complex, if you will.
The compromise between those two ideas is what we have today.
His thinking was that he didn't have a birth certificate, had no idea where it was, and he was WORRIED that if he brought this to the government's attention he could be declared a "non-citizen" and might be...well..he didn't really know. He was very fearful of this.
Eventually he found a girlfriend who was a friend of mine and we convinced him to sort out the situation and everything worked out just fine (he was obviously NOT the first person in Canada with this situation). But imagine he had gone for all these years avoiding the government just because of this line of thinking. So there is something to your point here about the fear of bureaucracy and scrutinization.
...he did not have enough contact / experience with government entities to really know if he would get "screwed" or not.
Because if the problem goes away those people won't have reasons to vote for you next time around. LBJ has some rather crude quotes about this concept, it's not a new thing.
If you’re receiving $1234/month (typical disability payment from a few years ago), that works out to $14808 annually. Under your scheme, you’d have to find (and work) a job paying $14809/year just to see an increase of $1 in your real income. In effect, you’d be working for a full year and being paid a net of $1.
It is more about ensuring that a person receiving assistance can work as much as they are able without any concerns. Anything less than a totally smooth off-ramp to financial assistance is bound to create scenarios where the optimal strategy for a worker is limit their maximum compensation below the arbitrary financial cliff.
That’s why I’m in favor of a straight cash subsidy through the negative income tax.
[1]: https://thefinancebuff.com/stay-under-obamacare-premium-subs...
That created an obvious incentive for male behavior in poor families. Once the unattached male hits bottom, there’s three options: mooch off of parents/baby mama and get in your feet, mooch and do nothing, get on disability, or go to jail.