Letter to Sundar Pichai from TCI Fund Management [pdf]
tcifund.com
tcifund.com
They don't.
They own 0.5% which is nothing compared to other investors. The lion share are still owned by Brin and Page. I'm sure Google leadership humored their call with TCI but it means nothing to them. He didn't even meet with Sundar as far as I heard, but he makes it seems like he did.
All else equal a bigger stake gives you more leverage, but its still possible to influence company decision making with a smaller stake by getting other shareholders on your side
They designed it this way to prevent activist shareholders who tend to be very focused on the short-term.
Here we are discussing TCI and last week we were discussing Ross Gerber calling for board seats on Tesla - who was trolling to get free advertising for the Gerber-Kawaski fund.
It is basically brand hacking/building 101 - Social Media/Legacy Media Engine Optimization. Pick a Goliath and start attacking and assume that Goliath's brand name will drive tweets and news articles and increase engagement for your David brand.
The "any press is good press" approach has been used to win political elections. Rinse repeat enough times and maybe it could be a way to win the presidential election.
But it is still a signal to manipulate the job market. If many tech companies agree openly to fire employees that will have consequences, if many tech companies just happen to get the same signals from some investors about firing people then is not that just a happy coincidence that may depress the market and lower salary without any manipulation to be blamed for?
This man had the highest salary of anyone in the UK.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/05/the-very-pr...
But no, it's not his salary, it's dividends.
Unless he isn’t resident in the Uk. Which I don’t know.
He's our Prime Minister's old boss as well. Rishi Sunak used to work for TCI[1].
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/08/rishi-sunak...
They are also not counted for NI contributions as far as I can tell.
Admittedly, the difference isn't as much as I thought.
I find it funny that there are economists who still use the argument of class warfare for wealth taxation, indeed we're living a class warfare, but now we know that it's the working class that's being assaulted.
Google pays up to 24 months of compensation in the form of a severance package includes salary, vacation pay, bonuses and accelerated GSU vesting to laid off employees.
The minimum compensation for a laid off employee at Google in the US:
"We’ll pay employees during the full notification period (minimum 60 days).
We’ll also offer a severance package starting at 16 weeks salary plus two weeks for every additional year at Google, and accelerate at least 16 weeks of GSU vesting.
We’ll pay 2022 bonuses and remaining vacation time.
We’ll be offering 6 months of healthcare, job placement services, and immigration support for those affected.
Outside the US, we’ll support employees in line with local practices. "
After layoffs, it's hard to get comparable high compensation offers at other companies.
Apple is the odd-man-out right now amongst tech giants with no layoffs. They also didn't spend like drunken sailors on new hires for the past two years though.
The ones that will do well for the coming economic cycle are the ones that are the IBM/Oracle/Cisco tier.
Microsoft and Amazon have never had operating losses, not ever.
Google and Facebook did. But they are the product of a very blue ocean for their respective markets. The first people who did it will were going to absolutely clean up, and both of their current strategies are focused on finding the next market that works that way and get there first.
That business model isn't plausible in a high rate environment.
https://cdn.geekwire.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/amzn-wo-...
Microsoft: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2015/07/22/tech...
I really get tired of this sentiment because it’s become a lazy stereotype.
Activist investors come around because of bad management. Bad management is irrespective of the MBA.
Satya Nadella of Microsoft is a much better CEO than Sundar Pichai, and both happen to have an MBA.
For reference, over the last 5 years, Microsoft stock has grown over 150% (not counting dividends) while Google has grown about 70%.
Chuck Robbins, CEO of Cisco, has a degree in Math with a concentration in CS, but no MBA and has only grown the stock by about 12% before dividends.
Mark Zuckerberg of Meta, studied CS at Harvard, but Never graduated. He has lost about 25% for investors over the past 5 years.
I choose stock returns because they are what fund most people’s retirement accounts (usually via a mutual fund owning them). The companies are all significant tech companies of roughly $200 billion or greater.
> I really get tired of this sentiment because it’s become a lazy stereotype.
To me, the comment was presented as general evidence that MBAs run companies better than people with non-business educational backgrounds. Otherwise, what's the point?
Yeah, If you zoom out on Microsoft stock, it's always been going steadily up. It never went to the moon but it also never had any major long term dips.
Which is why I'm bullish on Microsoft. They seem to be taking very good strategic decisions. Their focus on linux and WSL, data centers, cloud and services, VSCode, swooping up heavy gaming IPs, now ChatGPT.
Same with Apple.
If only they could remove the suck from Windows 11 and Teams that would be great.
Google on the other hand, seems like it's heading to become the next Yahoo! looking on how the quality of most of its products has declined or they have cancelled.
Google Meet is the only videoconferencing system I've used that works reliably almost like a phone call. I've used Zoom and WhatsApp extensively too and those both suck in comparison. Like not just "worse quality" but painful to use.
Meanwhile, Microsoft has customers that pay with cold hard cash for their Office 365 subscriptions, even if some of their products suck, they still make plenty of money.
Whereas, if any major regulatory body from EU or the US were to crack down on Google's ad tracking empire, a lot of their products would collapse as there's nobody paying for them with actual money.
At least my company does. And my girlfriend's. I think gapps is quite popular. (Yes I know Meet is free, but it's well integrated into Google's paid ecosystem.)
As someone who held it from 2001 to 2011 I beg to differ.
Apple rose a lot in that period but because they were nearly broke right before Jobs introduced the first iPod.
I guess in that period everyone though Microsoft will be running out of steam with their Windows & Office products and had no future.
It sure is, but just as "googling something" means searching it, the zeitgeist doesn't care. I think this should severely worry MBA programs, and those with the degree.
People quote the successful leaders who hold MBAs, while simultaneously ignoring the many who don't, or the many who have it but have failed. It's almost like it doesn't matter; because it genuinely isn't correlative beyond "I'm interested in business, let's get an MBA" (meaning, there is a pipeline bias in the statistics, but that doesn't independently validate the incremental impact of the degree).
MBA programs have no need to be worried, because the people who generally control businesses know better.
If one has an MBA but still flexible enough to change their mind and not rigidly stick to their models they'll be fine. Satya has an MBA but his notions of value don't seem rigid or short-term, so he's very successful.
Source?
Exactly. There is no source for the unsubstantiated 'three successive quarters' claim.
> though the official determination in the US is made by the NBER
I would not wait for an entity to determine and tell us if it is too late. Hence why businesses are preparing now, even when they should have done in November 2021.
And of course, I am not saying this in hindsight either, since the warning signs were there in [0] and finally when it happened [1].
Google desperately needs to find another money printer, and ostensibly they staffed up to help them do it. That hasn’t changed, and Google‘s workload won’t drop noticeably in a recession outside of a few departments.
And even in the those departments, they have so much still growing cash on hand, that they’d probably be better off to weather the storm the lay off only to rehire in a year.
There's also an argument that big tech keeping a bunch of people on payroll when they don't need to slows down overall growth in the industry as it makes it harder for startups to find talent.
Is the management of google so incompetent they cannot find a profitable application to a large part of their workforce?
Let's say the average salary of the 12k people they just fired was $300000. That's 3.6bn a year. Last time I checked Alphabet were burning ~180bn a year. I'm not saying 3.6bn is pocket change, but how is such a small % supposed to make a difference? For comparison, they were fined ~4bn in Europe recently.
That is, demonstrating the business was suboptimal? This is awarding incompetent.
in a boom market you optimize for growth: spend some more to be ready to take on the next big thing.
with a looming recession you optimize differently.
basically they are showing they are prioritizing according to changing climate
Maybe it's just doing what investors want, or using that as an excuse to trim some fat. But when you're profitable I'm not sure it actually makes sense to slow down just because the economy has.
It's terrible for the people laid off, but from a company standpoint that falls within normal fluctuation range.
I am not saying that is the case here, but reducing a small percentage of cost could matter if your margin is small. And in the case of those big corps, you can think of them as multiple companies internally, it’s likely they are doing layoff on departments/ divisions that have thin margin or unprofitable (ie. if you are in ads, very few were probably laid off)
They built an advertising empire. They have gmail. And android had no real competition.
But over hiring and throwing mud at a wall to see what sticks hasn’t worked out to very much in the last 10 years…
They built an advertising empire, yes? By compensating people very well.
Windows is still the dominant player when it comes to consumer desktop. End of the day it’s the consumers who make Google spin by visiting google.com from whatever browser they use.
If MSFT can knee cap them on search result quality that actually gives you an answer instead of a link… I mean think about it. Why would you use google to be linked to SO when bing can just tell you the answer and also provide source.. and don’t get me started on atrocious recipe websites.
Personally? I like GCP. It’s way better to use than AWS imo. I’d rather google focus on empowering developers and technology. Ads were cool and can still remain a solid part of their revenue. But if they can grow GCP and various dx things like Go, workspace, and firebase as well.
Google can provide summary answers but you often want to dive in and get details on an actual site.
Right now google search takes you to a site (that pays for ad) that MIGHT have your answer.
I don’t want to cycle through five useless SO posts. I just want the answer.
Other than the elephant in the room which Google has to pay billions once in a while to be the default search engine on non-android phones. Certainly something Google would be doing if Android had no real competition.
Additionally, they’ve definitely met wall street’s expectations, with profit and stock price growing steadily for many of the last 10 years, which is what these jokers care about.
All of this is, of course, on top of the part we take for granted: they still completely dominate search and defended their total control over many parts of the Display ads industry.
My point isn’t that they’re necessarily geniuses, but I think your bias against giant evil multinational corporations (which I share!) is clouding your judgement. I’d say they control the internet more than any other company, and the internet is the home of the modern economy.
I just think that we are giving them more credit than they deserve. Doesn't mean there aren't exceptionally talented people there. Can imagine some of the guys working on stadia would have been incredibly talented. But they killed it off, never even got to try it as it wasn't available in SG/TW.
So, cut back on RSU grants.
However, with stacked refreshers etc… the math might get kind of fuzzy. But I’m just saying that it isn’t an obvious choice to think a pay cut won’t lose some of your better talent. And replacing them isn’t guaranteed to be cheaper. Not to mention the ramp up time and how it will take a lot of time to operate at the same productivity as someone who has been doing the job for years.
From what I've heard talking to people who work at Google, most employees generate zero business value. The same as any other large enterprise.
How much is a Junior Google Software Engineer earning these days, assuming that they're hired straight off college?
A Junior Google Software Engineer is earning a lot more these days than they were during Google's ascent to market dominance, but not because Google decided to pay more.
I had a fairly harsh paragraph describing how I feel that we (the employees of the tech industry) are behaving in these times of opulence-for-us, recession-for-everyone-else. I removed it because it was certainly phrased too aggressively (against us collectively) and because I don't want to enter a flamewar.
Feel free to imagine what I would have written :)
I suspect that ship has already sailed, any of the postdocs or senior software engineers I know wouldn't touch Google with a 10-foot pole these days. There's a feeling I suspect that they've become too corporate, and that they could fire you pretty much anytime and the first thing you'd know about it would be your access card suddendly not working.
Today that seems to have been highly neutered. It's a giant corp with an old money printing machine and not a lot of future direction, IMO.
I'm not sure it's fair to blame them, I think it's just the nature of companies growing too large.
> but that would risk Google losing its lustre for talented programmers
Already has. Google is not "hot" anymore. Probably hasn't been for a while now.
hopefully this letter is fake
The letter is published on TCI's own website[0].
He is salty about his winning streak ending[1]:
> Billionaire Chris Hohn’s 13-Year Winning Streak at TCI Ends With Fund Slumping 18%. Sell off in equities hurt bets such as Alphabet and Microsoft. Last year’s loss was the second since the fund started in 2004.
He moaned about cost reduction to Sundar Pichai in Nov 2022 too[2]. I wonder whether these sentiments were echo'd by other such investors too and how much all that contributed to Google's recent layoffs[3].
His fund has done activist moves in the past too so this sort of advocating isn't new to them[4]:
> In 2008 the US railroad company CSX won a court case against the Children’s Investment Fund and 3G Capital Partners, another hedge fund, after the funds announced that they had acquired about 20% of CSX’s stock.[9] TCI succeeded in electing four of its five directors to the CSX board, but CSX shares declined by about 50 percent after the meeting. TCI declared defeat and sold its shares, taking its directors off the board. Chris Hohn, the founder of TCI vowed to abandon shareholder activism as an investing strategy.
Apparently he hasn't exactly abandoned it.
[0]: https://www.tcifund.com/CorporateEngagements/Alphabet
[1]: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-20/hedge-fun...
[2]: https://www.tcifund.com/files/corporateengageement/alphabet/...
[3]: https://blog.google/inside-google/message-ceo/january-update...
[4]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Children%27s_Investment_Fu...
Makes for nice clickbait though, I guess.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/15/alphabet-must-cut-headcount-...
>TCI’s stake represents 0.27% of outstanding Alphabet shares, according to Factset data, a position that the hedge fund has steadily accumulated since 2017.
>However, the company has three classes of shares, and co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin still have solid voting control thanks to their nearly exclusive ownership of Class B shares, according to the firm’s 2022 proxy report. That makes an activist takeover effectively impossible.
You think they took a $6B position without chatting with the company about it?
Not always (like in a hostile takeover), but if you think TCI just punches “$5,000,000,000 of GOOG” into their trading platform you’re wrong.
In a full blown recession going back to the headcount of 2 years ago isn’t exactly some Gordon gecko capitalist evil. It’s pretty reasonable.
Especially as it seems most tech companies are culling admin and hr staff, which is not where value is being created.
Not to mention the insane benefits these employees get, these are the best employers in the world. It’s clear employee happiness was much more important during good times than any investor sentiment. Investors just shut up as the business was still growing.
Investors are a rule are smart enough to realize that they - by virtue of being 'passive' - allow people that know more about the business to run it. Back seat drivers are hardly ever welcome as investors, if you're that good you should go and run another company, surely that's a better use of your talent then than to try to run a diversified fund.
With AI, capital will dominate everything. Crass inequality will be the norm. The only path out of this will be paved with blood. Except if humanity is much smarter than I think it is.
FWIW I don't think that it is pointless to talk about the effect that billionaires are having on our lives precisely because their billions insulate them from the consequences which effectively makes them our new kings with their own dynasty. And the kings of old were at least somewhat accountable to their population in times of hardship and their influence was limited to the countries that they governed (or decided to go to war with).
I sincerely believe that if we don't find a way to reign this in that it will come back to haunt us.
Perhaps this is a good thing. You can’t make emotional decisions when you are responsible for millions of people potentially. You literally wouldn’t be able to have leaders if leaders were emotionally involved in tens of thousands of peoples hard lives.
What is your blueprint for achieving this practically, instead of saying nice sounding dreams?
You asked for an example, I gave you one.
Have a read to see how Switzerland created their political system out of necessity:
As for me being naive: I am pretty realistic in my expectations but I do believe that the achilles heel of these characters is exposed: their wealth stems from a bug in capitalism that allows the unfettered collection of money, power, influence once you achieve a certain base. The fact that we don't have a way to effectively tax transnational entities is something that is absolutely fixable, and we currently do not have rules for that. Changing the game entirely is throwing the baby away with the bathwater, taking care of < 500 individuals in such a way that their tricks are no longer going to cause the upheaval of the lives of 100's of thousands of others is definitely something I would be happy to see implemented.
The game needs to be changed entirely, and we need to talk about how. Communism didn't work, capitalism does not work anymore, and the topic you'd like to discuss is really just a logical consequence of raw capitalism. I understand that capitalism was probably good to you in particular, so you are not interested in changing the game, just fixing it here and there, but that is pointless, as I already said.
My empathy with overpaid Googlers is also quite limited. Maybe they can now do something useful with their lives. I don't think Google's website works better than 15 years ago, so what are all these people doing?
Capitalism, like democracy is broken, but it is the best we've got - so far. Replacing it outright with some new system that somehow magically overcomes all of the shortcomings of the old and does not introduce new ones is a pipe dream, but you can make moves to fix the biggest holes and then keep doing that until you have incrementally arrived at a much better solution.
As for my empathy with overpaid Googlers: given the choice to sympathize with them or with their nil contributing rent seeking shareholder billionaire overlord I will side with them, and given the choice between them and a homeless person, inmate or mentally ill person my sympathy will be with the latter. Dealing in absolutes will get you quite literally nowhere, it's tilting at windmills at best and a distraction at worst. But feel free to pursue your goals in your way and leave me to do the same in mine.
There isn't a hard choice between these and no reason why we can't both pursue our goals in different ways and end up in a better place. It increases the chances of positive change.
I understand the follow up argument about a majority of people might not hold ownership in any public company at all, but that feels like a separate topic.
I am confused - are you saying did google management made an incompetent decision to hire them and now firing them is the rifgt decision?
Of decision 1 was incompetent, why do you believe decision 2, by same management, is competent? What if they fire all the wrong people? What if you need to fire the management? Has anyone even checked if management needs to be fired?
It's a business, not a charity. They have absolutely no obligation to keep tens of thousands of overpaid people on their payroll. It's not like we're talking about abused minimum-wage workers with no alternatives here either. And they're getting some pretty big severance packages, too.
I feel bad for the people on work visas, but that's a problem with the American immigration system, not Alphabet, and would apply anyone working at any company that needs to lay off people.
If Google had even 10% of the resources working on lobbying the US to fix the immigration system as it did lobbying the US to not antitrust it to death, I would buy this.
Who says they are "overpaid"?
It always baffles me how worker solidarity ends at the slightest sign of someone making good money.
The "of course businesses need to be ruthless sociopathic monsters that care only about profit for investors, even at the expense of their employees and customers" is a choice that society made. IMO, an ethical system would have employers really consider themselves obliged to their employees.
At the very least, if we want to go in this direction then we need to retire the term "job creator" from our lexicon permanently. Employers can't get credit for being oh so generous in granting jobs when the response to cutting jobs is "well what did you expect, your employer hates you."
I’m not sure why you think they were overpaid. Surely a lot of these people delivered value well above and beyond their salary for Alphabet, who required them to live in a very high COL area. A 300k salary in the Bay Area, unfortunately just gives you enough to live an okay life. It’s not like 300k in Alabama where you can live like royalty because of the depressed area.
Your perspective seems to be an internalization of extreme capitalism that only benefits the capitalist class. The workers, be they middle or low income, do not share this sentiment. Most other advanced nations do not allow this type of worker exploitation.
Why shouldn’t they have an obligation to keep employees on their payroll? They’re not in danger of going out of business. In fact, they’re wildly profitably. So, there is no need to make these cuts, only a desire to. The company made the mistake, but now society will have to pick up the tab, not the company managers and investors who ultimately made the decision to hire those people in the first place.
And really, your perspective on Bay Area salaries is detached from reality. Yes it’s expensive, but there are people there who survive on below minimum wage, under the table jobs. Make friends with your janitor or something and get some perspective.
The rest of the country is starting to hate tech workers, and takes like this are why.
The rest of the country is myopic, then. Workers should strive towards better wages, instead of celebrating layoffs.
It doesn't make any sense to hate engineers who can afford what most families did in the 50s and 60s, on a single paycheck.
What you’re describing is someone who’s living in the margins of society. Committing tax evasion just to survive while still living in poverty with multiple roommates just to get by is not what I would consider an okay life. This person will have no hope of retiring, so they’ll work until they die, which will be early because they won’t have access to quality healthcare in our expensive, privatized healthcare system. That’s certainly not a life I want to live, and I doubt you would want that either.
> Things cost less and businesses produce more when they’re run efficiently.
If you take a narrow perspective where the only thing you want to maximize is economic output, that’s true. But what we see in American society is that this comes with antisocial trade-offs. Wealth inequality has skyrocketed, health outcomes have plummeted, homelessness is a plague. I think there should be a balance. Yes, we want effective and efficient businesses, but we need to balance it with overall benefits to society and that’s not happening in America.
Should keep this in mind next time a corp asks for a bailout, taxbreaks, or has major court case against them. Then it suddenly becomes all about understanding their situation and protecting valuable business
Capitalism for mee but not for thee.
There is absolutely no accountability today. Is it not the CEO at fault if the company made a wrong decision? If he gets to reap the benefits his employees make which results in him getting obscene compensation, is it then not logical to also get a pay reduction if employees get fired.
I have a feeling these CEOs would be a lot less willing to do firings on a whim, if by firing 20k people they lost 30% of their compensation.
The older I get, the more I realize how much Nassim Taleb is right. All of the points made in his book are valid and are still standing the test of time. There is no Skin in The Game today, hedgies and C-execs just jump ship when it is time to face your consequences. There is a big difference between being a Founder and being a CEO. The former actually deserves some respect.
Alphabet - TCI Fund Management https://www.tcifund.com/files/corporateengageement/alphabet/...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4567705-chris-hohn-tci-fund...
> This quarter, TCI Fund Management's 13F portfolio value decreased ~10% from $31.60B to $28.58B. The number of positions decreased from 12 to 9. The top three holdings are at ~53% while the top five are close to ~79% of the 13F assets: Alphabet, Microsoft, Canadian National Railway, Canadian Pacific Railway, and Visa.
This is down from ~$44B 1H2022.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522800-chris-hohns-tci-fun...
The letter is macro level, doesn't really bring up the reasoning, but the data points tell a story.
> Over the last 5 years the headcount has doubled
That's coincidentally been as long as I have used their business and cloud services. I can hardly tell a difference between Google's offering of 2018 versus today. At least not as much as it would explain 2x the employees. Same for their search and other services.
And their customer service still sucks.
> Median salary is $300,000. Average is higher.
This is truly a win for tech workers. But an investor might see this and feel people come to Google for money, not passion.
I think from an investor perspective, these data points are interesting, in context. This person is recommending what they understand; that the headcount and salaries must go down. Is that a solution to the dysfunctionality implied here? What do you folks think?
Mostly well paid too but the purpose is twofold. "high tech" employment with well paying jobs is well protected by politicians in a country that until the late 90s/2000s had limited opportunities.
This in turn "buys" political protection via Ireland's government's EU veto rights. [if you don't know in the EU single market you currently only have to recognise revenue in whichever member state you claim to be based]. It in turn ensured highly profitable exceptional tax deals, as should be Ireland's sovereign right to negotiate.
prime shopping worse today than 5 years ago. many item take longer than 2 day promise. too many scam items, like shopping at some flea market. reviews unreliable.
me kindle same thing as what I purchase in 2017 or 2016. in past two year they update some screen so feel more like android style but its otherwise exact same product.
alexa is timer and alarm clock. sometime use for weather but it always say “by the way” and try to sell something stupid.
ok now we discuss aws. “hey we give like nothing to open source community but let us take you open source project, create our own fork, and sell your hard work as managed service.”
ok but what aws really even do that big in past 5 year? s3..lambda.. ecs decent. redshift basically eat hole in your wallet. but all this stuff available 5 years ago. no significant disruption or amazing feature.
ok AWS at least make money. rest of they business is low or no margin. massive grift from amazon friends brag about rest and vest.
Maybe my experience is atypical, but I'm still pretty happy with Prime. Nearly everything comes in the expected 2 days, sometimes things come in 1 day. Last time I (barely) remember anything taking more than 2 days was at the height of supply chain and logistics disruptions during the pandemic.
> ok but what aws really even do that big in past 5 year? [...] no significant disruption or amazing feature.
Why does everything need to be "disrupted"? If the business is doing well with what it has, maybe that's fine. Worse is when a company starts spraying new ideas at the wall, hoping to find something that sticks.
> too many scam items, like shopping at some flea market. reviews unreliable.
Absolutely agree with this, unfortunately. But I think this problem has been around quite a bit longer than 5 years. I remember getting a counterfeit item back at the end of 2015, but I'm sure that wasn't the first time.
Might even be intentional. You are essentially pushed into buying amazon basics where you can to save the research time.
prefect. we both agree to this.
with this idea in mind how do Amazon justify so much hiring?
what the people do all day?
this my point. bloated bureaucracy growing without doing anything new or disruptive. instead of more efficient.. just growing headcount for promotions and ego. it massive GRIFT.
as a shareholder in amazon do not believe the layoffs go far enough. they run business like charity. company like amazon coddling economic elite class who do little valuable work.
Cry me a river. This is coming from someone paying himself 6 times this yearly salary... PER DAY!!! As much as 2400 Googlers make. I guess he is THAT special.
https://fortune.com/2023/01/23/christopher-hohn-rishi-sunak-...
As of 2014, he had given over $4.5 billion to The Children's Investment Fund Foundation.[3] Hohn is worth $5 billion according to the Forbes billionaires list in 2020
> CIFF was established in 2002 by Sir Chris Hohn and wife, Jamie Cooper-Hohn as the philanthropic arm of Hohn's hedge fund, the Children's Investment Fund Management (TCI Fund Management)
How generous! Giving over 4.5 billion dollars to himself!
Not sure where the skepticism comes from but surely he isn’t “giving over $4.5 billion to himself”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Children%27s_Investment_Fu...
Pretty hypocritical. I doubt the investor has put their money into Google because of "passion". Why should an employee join for passion, then?
> that the headcount and salaries must go down
Maybe upper management should feel those decreases just like the rest of everyone else. But yeah, right, like that'll happen. Whenever anyone advocates lowering salaries, upper management never takes a cut.
My initial reaction was that investors really shouldn't interfere like that, they can sell their shares if they are unhappy with how the company is run, or vote for a different board next time. In this case I think they have a point. 150.000 is a lot to lay off, but it's also a lot of people to hire within a single year.
You could defend the hiring though. Unless I'm completely off, it does seem like profit are still going up. Ideally their profits should be going down, as they onboard large numbers of support staff to increase their customer service, but those aren't $300.000 a year kinda jobs.
There were not 150,000 people hired in a single year, and the letter doesn't say that.
It is literally exactly that. You can say that "they just wan to optimize the system" but you are giving them a lot of credit.
> But an investor might see this and feel people come to Google for money, not passion.
Yes, that is called a job. Otherwise it would be a hobby.
Why workers trying to make money is bad meanwhile rich investors trying to rent-seek for even more money is good? That seems that would lead to a non-functional society were adding value is not rewarded but just owning thing is.
Bad news for investors; people are generally pretty concerned with salary when taking a job. Few people are sufficiently passionate about Google to work for it if were sufficiently below market and they could get jobs at market. What they seem to be suggesting here is managed decline.
Also why be concerned about the people making $300,000? Why not the ones making 50,000,000? It is always the obscenely rich complaining about everyone else making too much.
The funny thing is his whole investment in google is just a tiny tiny fraction
but still big enough to get the CEO on the phone.
Google is a for-profit company. Its goal is to maximize profit. Not to maximize employment. Or employee happiness. Google is not daycare for adults. It’s not about “making the world a better place”, it never was, it’s all about making money, from day 1. Enough with all the corp-speak bullshit, we need to be honest about this.
And making money is a wonderful thing. There’s a reason why people choose to work at Google and not, say, at non-profit orgs or for government. At Google you get to work on cool shit, be compensated very well, be surrounded by super talented and smart people, have great work-life balance, etc., and this only exists because Google is super profitable. So I, for one, welcome this.
And let’s not kid ourselves, there’s plenty of fat at Google, more than 10% even. So if you understand the reality of Google only caring about the bottom line (which is great, in my opinion) and if you recognize that there’s some fat to trim, then you accept that layoffs are perfectly rational and even welcomed.
Finally, to the people worried about losing their job (or having lost their job), this truly sucks, and I sincerely am sorry, but let me be blunt: Google doesn’t owe you shit. Google is not your friend or family, it’s your employer. You have a contract, and Google is allowed to terminate that contract if they see fit (and guess what, so can you!).
/unpopular opinion
Having said that...
Do investors like this at all consider the impact of firing 12K humans (abruptly, and apparently at random) has on things like morale? This has actual, real world, financial consequences that hurt Google's bottom line:
* Damage to productivity
* Damage to employee retention
* Damage to ability to hire new talent
* Damage to PR
* Damage to long term planning
Google had a reputation of being super stable (no layoffs ever, not even during dotcom), which means the best and the brightest were much more inclined to work (and stay) at Google. This reputation is now gone. And what is Google, if not the talented people working there? How much is this damage to Google's best asset worth? Does it really justify saving a marginal cost? Maybe there are better ways to trim fat? Or maybe some fat is worth having in the grand scheme of things?
I understand that an outside investor may not think this way, but from Google execs I would have expected more.
Behind every for-profit business, and a out-of-touch with reality hedge-fund billionaire -- are the people who actually get shit done. And those people, who get shit done - are humans. And while layoffs suck, and it's inevitable they will happen, the distinction will always be between humane approach and greedy-billionaire approach.
This letter, if it's real, is written from a very very very high tree, by someone who belongs to 1% (or even less) of society in terms of the amount of money he makes. And this out-of-touch with reality, hedge-fund billionaire - is not longer seeing anything humane in humans. For him, humans, are an expense in his ledger. The same way as let's say groceries.
</unpopular-opinion>
Just to call out that this is very real. It’s from the tcifund domain itself and there’s a previous letter written in November[1] where they share the same sentiments.
[1] https://www.tcifund.com/files/corporateengageement/alphabet/...
Yes, his position requires him to distill all the complexities of dealing with masses of humans down to one metric, P&L.
I don't think thats an opinion, it's a fact about his role in the larger machine.
It’s very easy to hate billionaires. But he invested a lot of money in Google (which allowed it to pay its employees among other things) and he wants to see his investment pay off.
He’s doing his job. I just think he’s not particularly good at it. This is where Google execs need to step in and tell him to fuck off.
> And let’s not kid ourselves, there’s plenty of fat at Google, more than 10% even. So if you understand the reality of Google only caring about the bottom line (which is great, in my opinion) and if you recognize that there’s some fat to trim, then you accept that layoffs are perfectly rational and even welcomed.
The layoffs had to happen someday and it wasn't sustainable anyway and I said this before that no company is safe and neither is it a day-care. As long as there are institutional investors, VCs etc in the company or the board, you accept the risk of relinquishing control even if it means that layoffs have to be done for the company to remain profitable for the next few years to shift focus on another higher priority product.
> Google doesn’t owe you shit. Google is not your friend or family, it’s your employer. You have a contract, and Google is allowed to terminate that contract if they see fit (and guess what, so can you!).
Exactly well said. Until many realize this, the better. Enough of the 'We're a family!' bullshit or useless DEI initiatives going on at many companies. Another product of the free money and zero interest rates era that needs to go.
> Do investors like this at all consider the impact of firing 12K humans (abruptly, and apparently at random) has on things like morale? This has actual, real world, financial consequences. Awful productivity. Awful employee retention. Awful ability to hire new talent. Awful PR.
I don't think they care, as long as Google is making money for shareholders and investors, but your points are also valid
This really ties into the first point about profitability: there’s always room for disagreement about the best path, especially over a longer time frame, and that means you want to have some idea of where your upper management stands. It doesn’t help you personally to be working on some long-term project if they’re focused on answering somebody like this.
Reminds me of the saying "everyone's a genius in a bull market." I suspect that the 10 year roaring bull run in tech has added a strong randomizing effect in executive promotions, such that the people in charge today aren't the best that the company could've produced; they were just in charge of projects that succeeded "with the tide" even if executed poorly.
Sure explains a lot of Google (and big tech) behavior recently - the massive overhiring during COVID, cancelling projects left and right, now the timid and pointless layoffs that probably do more harm than good.
Sure you have two extra SREs you don't "need", and your HR department might be slightly overstaffed. But then one critical employee gets cancer and is off work for 6 months, and another employee has to go on maternity leave, and you don't have any extra employees in that department anymore. Hope you didn't fire your bloat!
So you beleieve twitter can maintain it's market share for prolonged period of time with zero improvement? That means it is facing zero competition?
Do you believe free market has failed?
Have changed the algorithms they used to drive engagement, serve you most interrsting tweets, make sure you are angry and depressed?
What do you think about the system they built to manage political slant, nudity, hatespeech and racism?
Or have youjust looked at their UI, and decided there are no new buttons and thus no worl was done?
These companies are generally valued as they are on the expectation of future growth. If Google said “yeah, we’re just going to keep everything as it is, forever, on a skeleton crew”, its investors would _freak out_, and rightly so.
Keeping a well designed website running isn't a major investment. Evolving a product though is.
I think the jury is out whether Twitter is going to continue to being a going concern. It could very well a major success.
But the fact that it didn't just crash and burn isn't that surprising.
Only for people who don't know how software works.
No, it is not. Twitter had more down times in the last weeks than ever before. Regularly the timeline is not loading and since a few days the viewer count is broken.
Interesting argument for a purported long-term investor.
I don’t give a rats about Google’s profitability though. Even if Google’s engineering ranks are filled with incredibly privileged highly paid people, I’m all for them sucking the company dry if it perturbs people like this investor.
I’ve also got the privilege of nobody caring what I think. If there were an iota of a chance that me writing this comment changed the head count at Google, I’d keep my mouth shut.
This guy can suck a lemon.
https://www.tcifund.com/files/corporateengageement/alphabet/...
The middle ground that sundar took is weird
I really don’t get the purpose of such a small layoff. Kills employee morale and doesn’t move the needle on costs
Possibly just one of layoff waves.
If it is total comp, is it adjusted for the fact that googlers are provided with RSUs and not dollars?(ie, a googler given "$70k" worth of stock in 2019 for 2 years out would receive $150k in stock in 2021.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Children%27s_Investment_...
Outside of Silicon Valley $300K/year median for rank-and-file employees is a number that just makes people’s jaw drop. Is that the actual median compensation?
It wouldn't surprise me at all to also find letters from these assholes to Silicon Valley city councils complaining about how the councils insisting on spending valuable real estate for affordable housing is hurting the region, because that's poor use of capital and they should instead build office buildings for tech companies.
Edit: haha my bad. I was too furious reading the letter. Hate billionaires and their influence tbh.
not by 150k
Which is about 20% versus the 10% announced.
What marvels Google is working on?
But mostly trying to find another cash printing machine before their current one runs out.
Given the output of every other company tackling self driving cars, for example, I think there’s some evidence it’s the latter.
An “illusion to trap investors” seems like a big leap without any real evidence to support it.
Even with the economic downturn, a lot of the companies that did these layoffs still were making massive profits.
Maybe these companies need an organized counterweight to the activist investors in the form of a union.
That being said, the salaries will still be great, just not "I make more than a surgeon" great.
Person A and B create system X that is responsible for some % increase in revenue.
Person A and B should be compensated well, so they don't go over there and create system Y. Especially given the FTC might be clamping down on non-competes, this is a plausible scenario.
Person A and B eventually tired of maintaining system X, so they bring in new people. The new people, once they have earned the trust of persons A and B are now the successors. The successors should also be paid well for the same reasons.
Scale this up, and you get the salaries.
I know this because I spent my career becoming the new persons A and B, and the bean counters always hated people like me.
The salaries are thus well deserved, but that is why the companies are trying to create electronic slaves that can be driven by a few persons A and B.
* I don’t count Netflix as in league with the others
This may make talent at the top end more tolerant of risks and willing to dive in and try and disrupt a company facing the inevitable morale and operational challenges that come after layoffs
The link above is a mini-MBA made with animation. Go out there, gain the business knowledge to take on these so-called tech giants.
Levels.fyi tends to be in the right ballpark. However, the equity number has to be understood in that Google gives out $X RSUs vested over 4 years and the stock number there factors in stock growth, which can vary a lot by person and hire date.
The L5 salary on levels.fyi is near the upper end of the range, at around $196k in MTV. The engineering ladder is very lopsided, with most people being in the L3-L5 range.
I am a longtime Googler, not impacted by layoffs.
I also dispute all the other comments here that Googlers are overpaid. Now, I certainly can only speak from what I see. In my experience, Googlers tend to work very hard, including extra hours on nights and weekends. Expectations are very high, and unlike many other companies, the engineers don't get a lot of top-down direction, so often have to figure out what they work on by themselves.
HN is crying a river about a bunch of millionaires losing their jobs.
99% of these people will land another job without any problem. Sure maybe they will have to accept a more normal salary (shock! How will they survive on less than $300k per year!)
Believe me, I'm not one to play the "you're privileged" card, but: you're privileged
This isn’t finance, just a rent seeking guppy casually trying to move the Overton window on 20,000 families.
It's been a continuing meme on hacker news for the last decade, that Google/alphabet hoover up all the talent in the market and pay them "f*ck you money" with golden handcuff stock vesting schedules, in order to keep them off the job market and out of competitor's hands. that's been the understanding of the situation for 10 years.
Alphabet has hoovered up some 180+ small businesses that threaten their monopolies over the last decade, only to throw away all the IP and bench the employees, just to keep their markets intact.
Those are things to be upset about, and much more serious and manipulative business practices. Don't be upset that an investor has just pointed out Alphabet's bullshit and wants them to course correct, now that the free money has dried up, and you can no longer afford to feed an army of useless rest'n'vest employees.
And the Overton window has absolutely nothing to do with this conversation.
Personally, I'd argue that naked indifference represents a wholesale abandonment of the good (cooperate/cooperate) Nash equilibrium for the bad (defect/defect) one, and rationally society should punish those advocating for this phase change of society at any level, since it represents an overall loss of productivity and profitability at a societal level. Andor (great show, btw) points out that seeds of rebellion are constantly forming in tyrannies, but the converse is also true, that the seeds of tyranny are constantly forming in liberal societies. This seems like such a seed, and it's worth asking what mechanisms are in place to undermine such seeds before they have a chance to grow into trends, into movements, and into the world in which our children find themselves. How about shame, guilt, reputation? Communal responsibility is always the first casualty of income inequality, which leads to a positive feedback loop of less responsibility, more wealth inequality.
In summary, Christopher Hohn should be ashamed of himself, people should spit on him in the street[1] and in his food, he should be sneered at and verbally abused by everyone in his community for being a greedy, inhuman monster that would destroy 100k lives for his spreadsheet. That this type of recourse is generally not available is a failure mode of our society that should be addressed through enacting any and all policy changes until this type of recourse is online once again. If this mechanism for basic humanistic correction isn't possible or practical, then Christopher Hohn and others like him should be taxed into oblivion.
1 - He looks like this: https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=christopher+hohn&iax=images...
That's $80,000 for each of those 100,000 people. For one person.
Sickening.
We should decide whether we like free market capitalism or not. What this guy is doing is very much the core of free market capitalism. He's also not doing something inhumane - it's not about funding new sweatshops or something, it's about not paying extremely high salaries to people if there's no need.
I know we're mostly well-paid tech workers here on HN, and I think we're all a bit scared that power balance might change a bit. I get that - but it doesn't make this action that despicable in my opinion. He's just trying to make money, and a public letter to call our the management is just so much better than eg. releasing self-driving cars that cause accidents or even hyping up worthless "currencies" that'll make less informed and vulnerable people poor.
Nothing should be treated as absolute. The man considered as one of the fathers of free market capitalism, Adam Smith, directly appeals to humanity and sympathy in his other popular book, The Theory of Moral Sentiments. Yet for some it's like, either we have full on free market, with child labour, capital having all the power and all, or a command economy.
How about a middle ground with a free* market with regulations restricting the worst abuses of the greedy human nature? That's what already exists btw, it just needs more tuning. With more regulations to stop newly found abuses - today it's not child labour, it's pollution of all sorts, or disregard for (near-)slave labour, or optimising for short term profits at any cost.
I'm referring to the recent fine applied to Facebook. The ruling is long, but TL;DR would be as follows: It will become impossible to pay with privacy in the EU. My crystal ball is as good as yours, but I guess this will significantly squeeze AdTech. I wouldn't be surprised if AdTech revenue, valuation and salaries drops to whatever "good" IT companies make these days.
Gotta pay the piper.
This would be a Show HN only when billionaire investor Chirstopher Hohn [0] himself posts this. If not, this perhaps is a Tell HN.
Instead of suing, unionize and take a bit of the power we all ceded to the hedge fund managers back. It won't make things perfect, but at least you'll have federal protections and Weingarten rights and the like and the ability to push back and have the tiniest bit of power in your work place.
These ranches seem more like a symbol.. to show the people with less money: "See, I can go there and you cannot."
Automation increases employment, it doesn't decrease it.