> However, once you move the companies infra to AWS (or any one cloud provider) and shutdown your infra, in due course AWS will keep increasing your price by x% every year. At the point you don't have a choice but to pay those price increases yoy. You have much less bargaining power.
I think you’re leaving out a key restraint: AWS is quite profitable now but has strong competitors and there’s still a much larger amount of IT spending which isn’t going to any cloud provider. If they abuse one customer, a ton of money is going to race to the exit. It’s also hard to see how they could raise prices enough to cancel out all of that lost future business without attracting regulatory attention, too — rearchitecting isn’t trivial but you’re still talking on the order of a year to profit before you’re not only losing the profits you had but also all of the future growth.
The other thing to consider is the substantially greater cost of a hybrid cloud: not just the obvious costs of extra resources, ops, security, training, application support, etc. but also the opportunity costs of restricting your usage to the lowest-common denominator cloud features. That’s a heavy cost to pay every month as a hedge against a low-probability event — I highly doubt that you’d lose money betting that you’d save so much money by using a single cloud that you’d still come out ahead if you had to migrate later.