Why should the West have more influence from the other side of the world than the largest economy in the region?
So, Why should the West have more influence?
Because any person or group of people who want to live a self-determined life and with a self-determined government, must always be better armed, better prepared, and have better alliances than the abusers and autocrats who will steal from them and rule over them the instant they are given the chance.
If you don't stop the neighborhood bully, he'll steal your lunch every day and keep you from walking where he likes to walk.
At this point in history, all the "...-ism"s are irrelevant, and we can see what it is - a deadly serious conflict between autocracies and democracies. It is now a hot war with Russia waging a genocidal war of aggression in Ukraine and threatening the Baltics, Poland, Germany, etc.. Zero of those countries want to live under Russia's rule, even though you think Russia should have the right because it is the largest and nearest player.
China is openly threatening the entire south China Sea, none of which, again want to live under CCP rule.
If it is not stopped, Russia, China, Iran, and other authoritarians will not stop. If you would rather live under the rule of Putin or the CCP, I suggest you move there, rather than attempt other free people to not defend themselves.
How's Russia doing, given their "hypersonic missiles?"
So much for the wise mandarins.
I think “Donfeng 6” is the IRBM that easily destroys a George Washington class carrier from beyond the effective range of an F18 and costs like 5 million bucks, which is why the PLA has a zillion of them.
Sailing a carrier battle group into the Strait with violence on the table would be a very bad call…
There’s a reason everyone puts the most powerful weapons on submarines, or so all the squids in my hometown of San Diego tell me.
My Navy buddies seem pretty confident the Virginia class fast attack boat is the one that goes home after a scrap.
In any case, either might makes right, and China can invade Taiwan and run all the genocides they do because they are big - but them it is also fine for US to naval blockade China into collapse and famine, if it so pleases because might makes right.
Or there are universal values and human rights, and the West would be evil for destroying China and causing untold suffering, but then China is also evil for attacking their neighbours and for running bunch of genocides.
You can't have it both ways!
Now it is very much our business what is going on in Asia, particularly since the risk is the subjugation of our allies by a totalitarian regime. It is better to have a strong and independent Taiwan, a strong Japan and strong Korea and even strong Philippines and Vietnam to counteract a strengthening PLA Navy, but we also want them to not be hostile to the USA, and we also want it to cost the PRC to even think nukes are the easy way to check the ambitions of their immediate neighbors. That does mean keeping our military promises to Taiwan, Korea and Japan. Simply put, there is no World from where we stand today where unchecked-by-us PRC ambition is an acceptable path forward.
War costs a lot of lives, but a hot war between adversaries means making the adversarial position suffer more for having taken up arms in the first place. A defensive war over Taiwan and keeping our promise doesn’t need a number on the table in advance to make it worth doing. It’s crass to even ask. How many American lives will it take to sink every boat belonging to or commandeered by the PLA in the Taiwan Strait, shoot down every jet that flies above and mow down every pair of PLA boots that lands on Taiwan’s beaches, and destroy every military shipyard on their coastline? Let’s assume this isn’t purely an American fight, you know, for the sake of argument.
If you can figure that one out, you’ll have something close to your answer.
How many people do you think the CCP will sacrifice to take Taiwan?
For instance, just recently the likely next DPP/pan-green presidential candidate is declaring that Taiwan is already de facto sovereign and independent, and so there is no need to formally declare independence:
https://twitter.com/brianhioe/status/1615638156367507456
Odds are, this entire discourse in this HN thread is just a lot of fulminating hot air by people who don't even live in Asia, grognarding hypothetical wargames and war toys, while the actual people in China and Taiwan will peaceably and gradually figure it out over time.
I'd prefer no Americans die in the course of this, similar to Ukraine. But certainly the number of Americans worth dying to heroically save a country of nearly 25 Million from genocide and slavery isn't 0.
Somehow Russia gets to play "great power politics" (although I think, personally, they must've lost their great power license by now lol). But when the US even helps the country being attacked, it's immoral and we have to stay neutral on moral grounds? Wtf, pick a standard. If Russia gets to play great power politics, so do we.
Can we apply the same logic for China's influence in Africa, for example? Does geographic location matter more than, say, trade volume? Given that there isn't anything between the US and China (or Taiwan) except the ocean does that not give credence to the US being a partner in that area since it's a Pacific nation?
If we're talking about the west, US, Japan, South Korea are either close or exceed Taiwan's trade with China, and that only includes western nations that are part of the Pacific Ocean directly (and doesn't include Canada, Australia, or New Zealand either).
41% of Taiwan’s exports by dollar value went to China + Hong Kong in 2020 versus 25.4% for US + Japan + RoK.
But let’s assume the numbers you listed are correct (I’m sure trade varies by year and breakdown and I assume good faith). What does it matter? Does China get 41% influence over Taiwan and the US, Japan, and South Korea get 25.4% influence?
The whole line of reasoning that started this was nonsense from the start and it doesn’t even include The Jungle [2] that is relations between nation states.
[1] https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/taiwan-marke...
[2] In international relations might largely makes right. Powerful countries are able to impose their will and influence on other countries. For example, the US imposes its will on China w.r.t Taiwan regardless of the amount of trade that occurs between nations.