Tesla video promoting self-driving was staged, engineer testifies
reuters.com
reuters.com
* They collected extra data along this particular route.
* They made multiple test runs and picked the best.
Contrary to the spirit of the demo video and their advertising, but within "not technically lying".
This is pretty normal in marketing demos. For example, in the original iPhone presentation: The engineers identified a “golden path,” a specific set of demo actions that Jobs could perform in a specific order that afforded them the best chance of the phone making it through the presentation without a glitch. For example, Jobs could send an email and then surf the web, but if he reversed the order, the phone tended to crash. https://www.internethistorypodcast.com/2017/01/the-history-o...
If it weren't for the "and then when they released the product people thought it could do the things but it couldn't, and died" we might be looking back on this as a "clever marketing hack".
I interpret lying as reclining your body in a horizontal position.
The video is 3:44, and I think doesn't have any bits cut out. I'm guessing that after running the route many times for practice and giving it extra data they could have gotten down to about odds of somewhere around 1:10k. And I think they would have accepted those odds.
(I would definitely not accept those odds, and would not want to ride in or near a car made by people who would. I'm glad that the law prevented them from doing runs without a safety driver at that stage. And I don't think they're anywhere near ready to do that today either.)
Why practice? They did the run until it worked well for the video. It wasn't a demo with a live non-Tesla audience. In this case not working 9/10 times is good enough rather than 1/10000
The odds I'm talking about are not "it doesn't work as well as the video" but instead "things go horribly wrong in a public way".
[1] https://electrek.co/2022/12/14/tesla-full-self-driving-data-...
Q. And isn't it true that during the various
attempts to generate the video, there were instances
in which the person sitting in the seat had to intervene?
A. Yes.Why say the exact same thing twice? I think its clear Tesla wanted to make a stronger claim than "he happened to not do anything this particular time"
A glitching IoS is mildly annoying, a glitching autopilot kills you.
Or worse - others.
You at least had control over the decision to use FSD (bad already, given human driver psychology) and then not pay attention to be able to intervene in a split second (which is ambitious to begin with especially over periods longer than a few seconds).
Below [0] is a link to a comment I recently made about a very dangerous incident I myself experienced with only a much more mundane "lane assist", on a German autobahn, while fully engaged and in control. Imagine I had had something like FSD and had required even a split second longer to get control of the car back... it would probably have been too late by then. I don't think it's a good idea to think well, I can just disable assistants, or FSD, unless conditions are perfect. Some day you will forget.
He was found guilty of fraud, and will be sentences soon, facing up to 25 years in jail.
(Something can also be fraud without being a lie.)
[1] https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/former-nikola-corporati...
"The driver is only in the seat for legal purposes. The car is driving itself."
Not in any way that any other Tesla on the road could drive itself, with HD maps and custom tuned firmware for that route.
(I still think it's bad, and am not a Tesla fan)
The Musk / Tesla fraud also seems extremely obvious, but even tho Musk has haters, he's made a bunch more people tons of money, I would expect him to have much better lawyers, etc.
Teslas FSD is released for years (which they call beta for marketing / libility) and is still missing a lot of features (including the ability to work without human oversight) and being quite buggy on others.
This was my thought, isn't this stand operating procedure for pretty much all companies? How is this news?
And by the launch of the phone that was fixed... I fail to see how that's the same thing.
I mean... they haven't launched Full Self Driving. You can (for money) get a beta that requires you to remain in control of the car and often makes mistakes. But the beta does most of the stuff shown in the video.
Today, after ~7 more years of development? Can it do them consistently or "80% of the time it works every time"? Because that's the problem, the bar for an autonomous driving system to be useful is high.
Below that bar you either have just a set of driver assists that have no claim at real autonomy, and have existed for (relatively) cheap for years, or you have the the "Goldilocks zone" of dangerous tech, smart enough to coax you into handing over the control but too dumb to be actually capable of taking over.
Just like I have the capability of running a marathon. I just haven’t done it. And I probably won’t…
(An honest name might be “Full Self-Driving Aspirational Future Upgradeability with Limited Self-Driving Capability”, but that probably wouldn't sell as well since it would set realistic expectations.)
However if a car crashes you can put multiple life’s in danger, isn’t it?
The iPhone example is an interesting one. I would say that was still a 100% legit demo, because Jobs was demonstrating the actual working features (rather than say bring up screenshots of a web browser and claim to be surfing the web.)
I can't tell for sure whether the Telsa video is closer to the iPhone demo or the Nikola semi demo (which was obviously way worse.)
Except Tesla kept on with the lie for years. Tesla has already copped to false advertising around "full self-driving":
https://electrek.co/2022/12/12/tesla-ordered-upgrade-self-dr...
Now Tesla doesn't want to be done for fraud so their current spin is that they have failed at full self-driving but "failure is not fraud":
https://electrek.co/2022/12/07/tesla-self-driving-claims-fai...
It's not helping Tesla's case that they took money from customers for an "aspiration". Tesla should do the right thing and refund everyone's money.
In a past life, when I sold my soul to the devil, I did a lot of demos on behalf of Microsoft that were precisely scripted. And, even then, NT4 BSOD'd on me in front of a packed auditorium once.
That's why one of the key skills of a corporate public face in IT is stand-up comedy. They didn't see the flawless ISS crash containment they were promised, but at least they had some great laughs.
Funny now that the devil isn't that much of a baddie anymore.
Has anybody managed to find the deposition? The search engine fail is made even better by the fact there was another deposition involving the same individual. Ugh!
Because they’re serving ads. They don’t want you clicking on a link that takes you to an external site. They don’t care about you reading primary material and forming your own opinion, either. They want to shape your thought and they want you to click their ads.
That would be bad (for the media company).
I saw a million articles talking about his manifesto calling him a radical socialist and picking out some quotes and then others calling him a radical conservative and picking out some quotes. All while not providing links to said manifesto with a kind of proclamation of "we don't want to share his ideas" (except they already did with the quotes). Really it just sounded like they didn't trust me not to kill a bunch of people if I read such a "dangerous" document because it was so compelling.
When I eventually found it, all it really turned out to be was the ramblings of a clearly not well adjusted mind. It seemed to me like the motivation for not linking it was more likely that they didn't want me to realize that whatever conclusions they decided to draw were totally unfounded because the document was complete nonsense.
A lot of legal writers are actually pretty good, even from the perspective of a layperson, especially judges/clerks writing for judges at the appellate and Supreme Court level.
In this case it's surprisingly hard to find a link to the deposition via search engines. Just out of curiosity, I tried googling and binging (?) several phrases from the pdf; nothing comes up. Adding the case number doesn't help much either. It's 19CV346663, if anyone wants to try.
The deposition is from June 2022 btw.
The full deposition is embedded on this page: https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/17/23559294/tesla-autopilot-...
A direct link to download the deposition is here: https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23574198/elluswamy-de...
In my view, none of those things make the video staged...
As a viewer, none of those things are surprising. If the car could reliably do those things pretty much every time, they would have brought a journalist along for the ride. If it could do it every time on any route, they would have released it to the public to try.
Back in 2016, other self driving companies were making similar videos, and I'm sure all of them were mapped and took multiple tries too.
(Corrected sloppy math, see below)
An article from the time clearly interprets it as a tech demo: https://electrek.co/2016/10/20/watch-tesla-new-full-self-dri...
If someone says, "Buy a Tesla, now with Full Self Driving! Here's a demo!" <insert demo>, then you're going to very reasonably assume that the demo is supposed to be of the current Full Self Driving feature, not of any future feature, and of a typical, if slightly polished-up, usage of that feature.
The kind of absurdly nitpicky legalistic weasel-wording you're trying to do wouldn't even fly in most American courts, let alone in the court of public opinion.
Edit: Here is the blog post the video was embedded in: https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now...
"The driver is only in the seat for legal purposes. The car is driving itself." Tesla's website, at the time, and until now.
Even now, they say “The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat”. Again, that’s fine if you’re showing a tech preview but when you start taking preorders on consumable product you really should be very clear that what people get for all of that money is nowhere near the demo.
Whether it's FSD, Cyberpunk or a Kickstarter campaign, preorders should cary the same expectations — if what you are buying doesn't exist yet, the seller cannot possibly guarantee they will be able to make what they 'promised'.
I won't defend Tesla here, but I think e.g. the gaming world is often unfair to game studios and game developers when a game is launched and is different from what was presented on some conference before. Scope changes, priorities change, playtesting changes the original plans, resources are limited. It's normal. When the end product is different it doesn't mean the developers lied when they originally presented it.
imho.
There is a world of difference between the demos other companies were showing and this.
> A 2016 video that Tesla (TSLA.O) used to promote its self-driving technology was staged to show capabilities like stopping at a red light and accelerating at a green light that the system did not have, according to testimony by a senior engineer.
Completely faking capabilities would be much worse than using multiple tries, though I can't find a transcript of the full deposition and so I'm not sure the deposition backs up that claim.
But the product demo was instead mapped?
"Staged" might not be the correct term, but it was certainly misleading.
It's about equivalent to saying you made an algorithm that can identify the breed of dog in a picture, but then only showing it correctly identifying golden retrievers.
They over-fitted the AI for the specific route they took.
Seems to me it's the very definition of staged. They arranged all aspects of the route in a way that typical driving wouldn't allow and then selectively released information about how it went. Seems unlikely Musk's intended readers to know how the actual drive went when he tweeted "Tesla drives itself (no human input at all) thru urban streets to highway to streets, then finds a parking spot"
The only real argument that can be made here is some variant of "all demos are staged and everyone should have known not to believe the car can actually behave that way outside of a demo"
As far as mapping the route... that's The Standard Model for this industry for every manufacturer except Tesla.
Folks: please stop watching coverage that merely confirms your priors. Every car can get FSD now for $200/month and enroll in the beta. Call a friend and get a ride. It's great, I promise. No, it's not done. But it's great.
It's not just great, it's hardcore:
https://theintercept.com/2023/01/10/tesla-crash-footage-auto...
Woo! FSD! FSD!
Even an FSDb equipped Tesla isn’t autonomous, and the car in question didn’t even have that.
No, you've been musked. It was Tesla's software that brought the car to a full stop, full stop. It's funny how Tesla wants to claim credit for X million miles without crashes under software control, except for that last mile where there's a problem. That one belongs to the driver.
> Even an FSDb equipped Tesla isn’t autonomous,
So.. you agree that Tesla's video promoting full self-driving was staged. And you agree with Tesla that they have failed to deliver full self-driving:
https://electrek.co/2022/12/07/tesla-self-driving-claims-fai...
> the car in question didn’t even have that.
Sure it did. Your beliefs are not matching the realities. You might want to read the article. Here's another article:
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/17/business/tesla-8-car-cras...
Sorry internet troll, but no, I haven’t. You’re the one stupid enough to take Musk at his word, not I.
> you agree that Tesla's video promoting full self-driving was staged.
Of course I do. Any sane person would also agree.
> Sure it did.
Read it again. Then apply logical thought to it and not “yeah, here’s a link that I can parrot around like an idiot!”
> In my view, none of those things make the video staged...
Fanboy detected.
And you don’t see them doing all the carnival barking line Tesla does
>>To create the video, the Tesla used 3D mapping on a predetermined route from a house in Menlo Park, California, to Tesla’s then-headquarters in Palo Alto
Remember they don't have the 3d maps, so they used a completely different car with different hardware to showcase it !
>>But the Model X was not driving itself with technology Tesla had deployed
>>When trying to show the Model X could park itself with no driver, a test car crashed into a fence in Tesla’s parking lot, he said.
Is it legal to falsify the claims ?
Every AV project other than Tesla (and maybe geohotz's AV thing?) uses other types of sensors, especially LIDAR, and 3D mapping.
If it turns out that 3D maps and LIDAR are necessary to achieve L3 and higher, not only are Tesla cars not equipped to ever be AVs, the data Tesla has collected from their cars is much less valuable for developing and operating AVs.
Back in the 90s my older sister left college a talented artist and promptly found the only real paying work available to her in the advertising industry. Every day she'd tell stories at the dinner table of what sounded to us like fraudulent advertising. Toothpicks holding buns off lettuce to make a burger look taller in the commercial, grapes dipped in oil before photographing to make them look shiny... I can't remember the others, it was a constant game of deceit.
One could argue broadcasting such misrepresentations contributes to the incidence of their excessive consumption related ailments. Obesity and heart disease can resemble slow death. Autopilot/FSD just does it faster.
This is different from Tesla (or any other automotive advertiser), where an ad that shows the car driving itself might reasonably be considered a claim that the car can, in fact, drive itself.
I think it'd be a lot of fun for like 2 days.
Everyone knows you can't tow the space shuttle with a Tacoma in any reasonable sense and that only a very skilled driver spending a day taking a crack at it can get a Land Rover up a ski hill in an elegant way.
That won't stop people from playing dumb in order to prop up some farcical point they tried making online and got called out on.
As someone who lives on a dirt road surrounded by airbnb's near a national park seeing lots of tourist traffic, I think you have an extremely flawed understanding of what "everyone knows" WRT their vehicle's capabilities.
I mean heck just look at what happened to Nikola. https://www.npr.org/2022/10/14/1129248846/nikola-founder-ele...
Dolled up, yes. Staged as in, "Portrayed in the best light?" Yes. But staged as in "As fake as the Apollo 11 moon landing?" No.
McDonald's Canada did an entire video showing how they shoot their food. They're not allowed to fake it, but what they can do is put forty patties on the grill and choose the nicest two to put in the ad. They can take a basket of heads of lettuce and pick the perfect piece. They can carefully layer the food on the bun with a slight setback to give the illusion that it's taller via perspective, but they cannot actually lie about how tall the food is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7xnjBoJHzE
I met a specialty food photographer once. He had food dyes and a tackle box full of glass beads, he could make a fake cup of coffee look like a hot cup of coffee, but he was clear that he did that when shooting an ad for something else, e.g. If it's the cup being sold, not the coffee.
Not everything in advertising is an outright fraud, although everything in advertising is staged as well as possible, just as you say.
And "as well as possible" can be really, really well when you have deep pockets.
Anyone that's eaten a big mac and seen a commercial for one knows they clearly do lie about how tall the food is.
I presume what you meant here is that they're not supposed to lie about how tall the food is. Clearly the can and do. Actual McDonalds hamburgers are the saddest looking flat soggy salt biscuits ever to be called a hamburger. Their commercials show nothing of the sort, get real.
Perhaps you could share with me the lies McDonalds has told you and everyone else about their food? I mean, sure, it sucks. But the video I linked to above explains exactly why and how the food in the ads looks better than the food they sell you.
Other than that, where are the lies?
But I can tell you right now that McDs is not lying about what a BigMac can look like, because I have eaten a Bic Mac, and other McDs burgers, that looked just like they were from a commercial. Food has natural variability; how the final burger appears depends on the ingredients and the preparation, and some McDs locations like the ones near me do a better job of storing their buns and assembling their burgers than others.
McDonalds Canada has published a behind the scenes of them doing a photoshoot for a burger[0] then compared it to the real thing. It's interesting seeing the tricks you mention involved (one you didn't mention but they do, is the patty is frozen and only the edges seared so it stays thicker).
it reminds me of a time when Larry Page (in a deposition) referred to the code repository at Google as: "I mean, there's some code-based repository thingy".
https://www.scribd.com/document/355385613/Larry-Page-deposit...
Is there a public accounting of Musk’s balance sheet? His fondness for margin loans is documented, after all.
Times have changed, Musk's debt (in every sense) caught up with him. Tides have shifted, his charisma has worn off. And people are starting to notice or remember the cracks that were always there. 7 years after that promise it's hard to imagine anyone still realistically believed in it or him.
In contrast Nikola's video survived scrutiny for far less time. It had none of Musk's advantages, the ability to steal people's imagination and make them just bury those red flags. The fact that they sold trucks didn't help with this.
It's just taken time for the industry to respond.
I say this because I interpret Tesla'a nonstop obsession with self driving as an admission they're in a race they will lose. The feature is a gizmo that appeals to techies and can, for a time, prop up sagging unit margins. But it's a nice to have bobble at best compared to the real prize of dominating the car market.
Christensen book, The Innovator's Dilemma even specifically identifies the electric car as a potentially disruptive innovation, mapping the path an upstart could take to eventually dominate the car market. Tesla never took that path, and instead did the exact opposite. It sold social status to wealthy customers rather than basic transportation to an abandoned market.
I thought their plan explicitly was to start with low-volume, high-margin exotic cars (the Roaster), followed by the slightly higher-volume luxury car (Model S), then progressively going towards higher-volume, lower-priced cars, with each step funding the development of the next.
Are you looking for the Toyota Corolla of the EV market?
I see them all around me and the marked for used ones, all the way back to 2012 models seems to be strong.
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a40613694/nissan-leaf-bein...
While they were a dime a dozen in the bay area and a handful of wealthy urban markets, its been hugely outsold by the more expensive Model 3 and Y despite being on sale since 2011 and didn't sell anything close to Nissan's hopes for the model.
MG4 is the cheapest EV (£30K) sold outside of China that could reasonably compete with a Corolla. There isn't much else in the cheap bracket. e-Niro and ID.3 start at £35K.
It is inexpensive for an EV and seems to be a reliable and durable car.
I’m almost sad to hear it’s going to be discontinued but for myself, when the time comes, I’ll be taking a good look at whatever Nissan will be offering.
Nissan Ariya is technically average, and rather pricy. It's technically comparable to ID.4, but 25% more expensive. Or for the same money you can get Ioniq 5 or Kia EV6, even in their higher trims, and they charge twice as fast.
You don't need to interpret there; it's one of the few things Musk has been relatively consistent and forthright in admitting to. EV technology alone is not a very wide competitive moat, it was clear that other OEMs would be able to catch up to it. The mechanical and electrical engineering required is not a big challenge for the supply chain and a lot of the components were already available off-the-shelf.
I believe he has said something similar to "without Autopilot Tesla is worthless" or some sort of dramatic statement like this - it's supposed to be their competitive moat going forward, so there's a lot, no pun intended, riding on it and making the market believe it's going well.
This is doubly true because Tesla is arguably not doing great at scaling out the stuff that makes the other OEMs be able to participate in the overall industry business model. Tesla has made very impressive strides in bootstrapping and building out a volume production network etc., but what other OEMs do in having stable and predictable schedules and refresh cycles for a number of underlying platforms and car lines is still a very different ball game. Just look at how long in the tooth the S/X and even the 3 are getting without a full makeover or how long the Cybertruck is taking. Also a full refresh cycle of the factory network when you switch from one carline gen to another etc. is a milestone Tesla still has to manage.
There's nothing too special about their autopilot compared to what other manufacturers offer. Musk's fast and loose claims about what Autopilot cand do "in the next six months" or "around the corner" were overhyped exaggerations designed to sell cars at best or Theranos style lies at worse, hoping that by the time people wise up about the false promises, Tesla's engineers will have something to show for close enough to what he promised which will buy hem more time to create more hype to sell more cars. Rinse and repeat.
The thing is Tesla can't maintain their wide moat as the other manufacturers are catching up.
Grown up friends of mine were rabidly buying Tesla stock, basically putting their life savings into it, and when I asked them why, they kept telling me "because Tesla's innovations would make the other car manufacturers obsolete". Now they're pissed at him.
Always thought this was a pretty odd belief, because this, generally, is not how things work. It's very unusual for a company to sustain a monopoly on _innovation_; where it happens it's usually down to the market being too small to justify the investment to catch up by others.
This Autopilot is pretty old Tesla technology, basically abandoned, to be replaced by their FSD stack which also handles cities.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/21/test-driving-gm-ford-and-tes...
Mercedes-Benz is about to launch true level 3 autonomous driving technology, but it's not quite available for purchase yet.
https://www.thedrive.com/news/mercedes-benz-gets-approval-to...
Super curious about Mercedes, though. If nothing else, they will take on liability and thus likely delve more deeply into some of the challenges around L3.
Now that isn't panning out either. I don't know if there are any other places to fundamentally disrupt in the automotive space, but if there are, that's where Tesla will focus next I suspect.
Trying to "out automate" companies who make literal millions of cars per year was never a recipe for enduring margins. There are plenty of videos from even economy car assembly plants 15 years ago where robots did the entirety of the welding and humans were only involved for little bits of final assembly.
Now i'm just trying to figure out of it's arrogance or ignorance at the root of his problems in this space.
Unless of course you've bought into your own marketing and think yourself a disruptive genius.
To me this is just a wonderful object lesson in the naivete of so many SV "disruptors" who fail to understand Chesterton's Fence.
But then again VW has a lot higher consistency and less QC issues coming off their lines...
Tesla just wants to crack the whip on quarterly deliveries. God help you if you take delivery of a vehicle manufactured at the end of the quarter - you're going to spend a lot of time arguing at a Service Center for them to fix manufacturing defects.
I wonder if there's a correlation between that and "time on the line"...
I guess it's a trope he trots out in different contexts.
As for batteries, you hear much the same content at a variety of different OEM "battery days", which usually get much less coverage on places like HN however.
Steve Jobs was very good at this as well. Here's the all-new iPod! Video? Who'd want to watch video on such a small screen? Next year, the all new video iPod.
The downside to LFP batteries is that they are less energy dense than the old NMC chemistry, though modern LFP batteries now have the same energy density as NMC batteries from about 10-15 years ago (due to the fact that individual cells can be placed more closely together than in NMC batteries due to the lack of thermal runaway risks).
> Moreover, independent 4680 battery teardowns and chemistry analysis shows that Tesla is still using the regular 811 nickel-manganese-cobalt mixture for the cathodes and ordinary graphite anodes.
https://www.notebookcheck.net/First-Tesla-4680-battery-teard...
They also aren't using added-silicon anodes yet, which may explain why the energy density is so poor. I'm not sure if they are having trouble working on this, or if they are waiting on patents to expire.
Musk said, "The overwhelming focus is on solving full self-driving. That’s essential. It’s really the difference between Tesla being worth a lot of money or worth basically zero":
https://electrek.co/2022/06/15/elon-musk-solving-self-drivin...
2022: "Our focus is on solving the problem."
Musk in 2015: "Self-piloting cars are a solved problem." "I view it as a solved problem. We know exactly what we need to do and we will be there in a few years."
Apparently it got unsolved along the way.
Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/teslas-elon-musk-says-autonomou...
Why do they need a competitive mote when they can just outcompete by doing things as they already were?
AFAICT teslas are becoming worse instead of better, because of this obsession with gimmicks instead of excellence and customer satisfaction.
From the perspective of an employee at another OEM, I’d say they already do that. They have several moats outside of autonomous gimmicks:
1) Charging network. Nobody comes close. 2) Infotainment software (combined with underlying architecture and in-house silicon). They have the best experience in the industry. Their architecture is streamlined unlike disjoint legacy OEM 15 ECU hell. The broad market doesn’t really understand how far ahead they are in terms of architecture. Any new OEM has a huge advantage of starting fresh. 3)Packaging and battery density. They have the best range. They have the best packaging (tons of trunk and frunk space), where as many other manufacturers end up with weird raised trunk floors and no frunks in their competitor products that also somehow get worse range.
So yeah, I think Musk definitely undersells their lead in these areas. With no redesigns of the main models yet, they really could have focused a lot of effort on improving quality, interior materials, etc, but they instead poured money into the quagmire of autonomy.
That is more an artifact of the physics of electric cars. To get the range the masses want, you need a large, heavy, expensive battery battery. You can get tons of power for almost not additional money, mass or volume. So building something like a 5 series BMW is very easy to do and make competitive. Building a Honda fit is very hard. The nissan leaf is the closest thing to that, and people don't want it because it can't really do road trips.
My wife and I owned a Fit for over ten years. We took many long roadtrips (i.e. 8+ hours in the car). For a couple with no kids, it's perfect, with a decent amount of cargo space, and great mileage.
Frankly, outside of North America, small cars are by far the norm rather than the exception. The American SUV or pickup are quite literally jokes in other parts of the world for how absurdly large they are.
Kind of, you can also change the other factors in the equation like that startup building 'Lightyear' with the light weight platform, aerodynamics and with PV panels [0]
I know there are people with steel bladders who also need to tow a boat every day, through a desert, in the snow, uphill both ways, but for commuting and occasional road trips it's already pretty good. Just don't try this with Leaf and its previous-gen peers that are 5 times slower than the state of the art.
I'm talking 1/2 of the stations broken/bricked on average, another 1/4 not delivering at all or not delivering the promised (250kW+) output, so you're stuck with 50kW in the middle of nowhere and your 20 minute stop now takes you 2.5h with no amenities around.
Check the Out of Spec channel on Youtube for frequent updates on this type of stuff.
What does a Lucid get you over these? 1,000HP. Does anyone really need that? So why pay 4x the price?
I mean we're talking EV cars here, and comparing with Tesla. The cheapest Model 3 you can get out the door is $47K. So they're "cheaper than EVERY Tesla".
Even if Tesla developed robo taxis tomorrow, there are numerous legal, regulatory, liability and willingness hurdles to overcome.
There is also the issue of which markets robo taxis would address. Old-world cities tend to have good to excellent public transit. The value is largely in limited regions - north america being one.
Also even European cities with great transport are often choked by cars and parking issues. London in particular seems to have issues with the volume of vehicles that could be at least partially helped by car share robo-taxis.
There were tons of potential issues but it still formed the ideological core propping up any semblance of rationality to Tesla's pre-crash stock price. IMO it's still way over valued but it's at least no longer larger than every other major car manufacturer combined.
Sounds miserable, I wouldn't want to get back to my car after work and find some passenger had ruined it in some way. Bodily fluids, smoking weed in it, leaving trash, the possibilities are endless!
If you can print cash with your Robotaxi, why would Tesla ever sell you one? Just build your army of Robotaxis and make your billions that way.
Unfortunately for Tesla, you can't just hang an "automobile" sign on a faster horse and declare yourself the owner of a disruptive product.
As an aside, I actually think the advantages of Tesla are its willingness to constantly improve the product - from software OTAs that make the cars better years after purchase to fundamentally reworking manufacturing (eg mega casting). They've taken Toyota's Kaizen and cranked it up to 11.
As far as the rest of the auto industry, I think there is probably a cheaper worse play (low end disruption). EVs are much simpler to make and that's going to wreak havoc on the auto supply chain (needing it to be much smaller/leaner). And it would also seem the dealer's days are numbered - both as a dated sales model as well as their revenue drying up (fewer repairs to make). Do any of the encumbants disrupt themselves (knowing it is inevitable)? Or is there another player that comes in? (And I don't think Tesla really fits this role).
Can you expand on this?
When the iPhone came out there was literally nothing like it on the market. It genuinely redefined what could be done with a phone, and it doing so, completely changed the category.
Nothing that Tesla is doing rises to that level of disruption/innovation, at least as far as I can tell.
What, exactly, are they doing that brings you to this conclusion?
> But I guess only time will tell.
I find this so strange.
Tesla has been around for... let's see... 20 years. The S is over 10 years old now (production started in late 2010).
The iPhone came out in 2007. A blink of the eye later and the smartphone was ubiquitous.
You say "time will tell", but... how much more time, exactly?
The early criticisms about Tesla's build quality and a lot of the arguments about a battery not being good enough seem to follow a similar argument. Is the original Model S as good as a top of the line gas car at the time? By most metrics used at the time, no. The criticisms in the peer comment by lbsnake7 are similar - those are legacy metrics of a car. However it did find a customer base that valued what it offered, bad seats and poor panel gaps and all (just like the GSM buzz and non-replaceable battery).
As far as the timeline, the slowness has surprised me a bit but I think comes down to a couple of things. One is the turn over time of getting a new phone vs a new car. Cars are much slower. And another (which might be related) is the price point of cars being orders of magnitude larger than phones. And finally, it's taken a good while for Tesla to ramp - it's been supply constrained forever (although there might be signs of that shifting).
At the same time you've claimed Tesla will be the iPhone of the car world. You claimed "In this way [Tesla] is similar to the iPhone coming in and basically killing Nokia, Motorola and Blackberry."
I'm asking why you believe that. Can you expand on that?
I've heard claims of vertical integration, but that hasn't proven to be a major differentiator, and in fact is turning out to be a liability (see: reliance on China).
I've heard claims of manufacturing automation, but that's turned out to largely be a failure.
I've heard claims about the synergy with Solar City and their battery development, but that's proven to be a very small moat, at best.
I've heard claims about the value of OTA updates for software, but that too hasn't been that disruptive, and now other manufacturers are doing the same.
I've heard claims about their abandonment of the dealership model, but that doesn't seem to have been much of a differentiator, and given their service reputation, seems to have become a liability.
Elon is selling the idea that FSD is the critical factor, but FSD is increasingly looking like an unattainable dream, at least with the hardware platform Tesla currently has in the market.
So what's your take? Why do you still think Tesla will be like "the iPhone coming in and basically killing Nokia, Motorola and Blackberry"? What am I missing?
You've also explained why you think Tesla, at 20 years, hasn't yet had the disruptive effect on the market that you seem you be predicting, laying it at the feet of market structure and so forth.
But you haven't explained why you believe that will change, either.
So honestly I don't believe this is the case anymore. I think, as more EV competition is entering the market from both new and established automakers, they're now just another EV that happens to have great brand recognition but an eroding brand reputation, a good charger network, average to below average quality, a very weak record on customer service, and a CEO that's just another crazy, out of touch billionaire.
What nobody expected is the power of: people just loving the device. Enterprise IT departments were approached by C-suite folks demanding to use the device. Consumers decided they did want to fork out big bucks for one, and carriers found a way to finance them.
That might be true, but it's not clear at all that it's good.
Vertical integration carries risks because you now have to run your own end-to-end supply chain, which means you are also responsible for building diversification in that supply chain (as otherwise you end up with single points of failure), which is complex and expensive.
I've heard similar claims about how cool it is that Tesla doesn't have dealerships, but the downside is they also have absolutely horrendous service.
And this is ignoring the fact that how Tesla builds and sells their products is somewhat orthogonal to the question of product category disruption.
No one would've called Apple disruptive if they made yet-another-flip-phone but just built and sold it differently.
As much as the iPhone killed off those companies, it grew the market for smartphones more.
There is no significantly growing market for cars like there was for "handheld internet-connected personal computers". Every EV sale is effectively 1 less ICE sale - a 1:1 replacement in the market. Whatever market growth potential exists is in the very price sensitive developing world (South Asia, Latin America, Africa, etc), where EVs will show up en-masse last.
Now that practically every company is selling EVs, Tesla only has its brand to differentiate it, which was at one time significant but perhaps less so lately.
As I see it, their only meteoric growth opportunity (by eating into competitors' market share) would be if they released a $20K, 250+ mile range, 5 seater EV in the very near future - like what the VW Beetle did in its generation.
But that's hard to achieve in an EV (especially from a luxury brand used to high margins), since the majority of the cost of an EV is still in the battery, and that cost doesn't scale down much with a lower price tag.
> The feature is a gizmo that appeals to techies and can, for a time, prop up sagging unit margins. But it's a nice to have bobble at best compared to the real prize of dominating the car market.
The feature and all the rest of the hype somehow got it this far.. it might break 2m ($100B revenue) cars sold in 2023. That's about as much as Mercedes. BMB is 2.5m. So it has wiggled its way by sheer tyranny of will, luck, and incumbents dragging their feet to being in the top 10.
Otherwise I'd agree with you but the bluff, improbably, worked out. They are here to stay.
I'm sad about this.
(I'm also reminded, thanks to chatting with friends over the weekend, of Grolsch adverts in the UK about 20 years ago: "Stop, it's not ready yet!")
The video
https://www.tesla.com/videos/full-self-driving-hardware-all-...
What matters is:
(a) whether you clearly communicate which kind of video it is, or make misleading claims
(b) whether you clearly communicate dependencies, release schedules, etc.
(c) how things are framed, e.g. whether the video is shot on a test track or things are made to appear like they are in an everyday situation
If you look at other similar promo videos from other OEMs at that stage of development, you'll find that they often take place on e.g. locked-off test tracks where each car in play is driven by a professional and often pre-faced or end with clear words on product availability and what it's subject to.
Some of these OEMs are even willing to take the liability for their product once it becomes available. These come from the same place ...
(Disclaimer: I work for a competitor.)
> Weight-loss products accounted for 13 percent of the fraud claims submitted to the F.T.C. in 2011, the most recent data available. That is more than twice the number in any other category.
https://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/08/business/us-charges-4-com...
It is not legal to do so when it materially misrepresents your product.
The key detail here is that the engineers went off and 3d mapped a route and used that to operate the car. That's not actually something the product does. That's fraud. You can totally produce that video and say "Here's how autopilot will work in the future" because you're demonstrating the intended behaviour, not claiming something about the current product. What you can't do, is fake what the product can do today, and then claim it's capable of that today. Unless Elon Musk plans to personally go and 3d map every journey I take for eternity then that's not an honest claim about how the product behaves.
Note, we're 7 years down the line, and autopilot still doesn't work. The average age of a car is about 12 years. So if you saw that advert, bought a Tesla, you bought it under the understanding that it had a feature it still doesn't have and your Tesla is (edit:~~half~~) quarter-way to being scrapped.
Imagine you read an article with damning testimony from an Apple engineer who said the prototype was crap, and only really worked for the demo. That's what this article is.
If Apple never delivered the features that he demo’d and went on to sell the phone for $650 with the promise of those features existing, then yes.
If I'm not mistaking, it was a video that detailed how they did the AI training.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33212850#33214018
> This is also how Zoox, Tesla, and Cruise do their demo videos to scam more money out of investors: they collect ultra-HD maps in a very narrow area or a very specific route. Then they drive the route/area about a thousand times, recording each drive. Then they upload the drive with the fewest mistakes to YouTube. Just like me taking a thousand half-court shots with a basketball, hitting one, and then claiming I can do it every try. There, I just gave you the formula to raise $100mm from FOMOing VCs.
You can cherrypick without mapping (Nikola rolling a truck down a hill).
You can map without cherrypicking (Waymo/Cruise allow you to record your ride in fully driverless vehicles in SF right now).
Waymo and Cruise can drive SF because they limit the number of scenarios and they collect ultra-HD maps for that tiny area. Throw a Waymo van in Knoxville, TN and it fails left and right, even in similar scenarios due to the lack of the quality map.
> you’re committing fraud.
Where is the fraud? Waymo and Cruise are not selling cars. They are selling only the rides which they have the ability to provide. Not only that, they pretty prominently display mapping as a part of their stack, so it's not like investors are deceived.
No they won’t. That’s the entire point. It doesn’t scale from a cost perspective. The entire thing is funded by their search ads monopoly right now. They can’t pull in the revenue they need to maintain the map from ride fares alone.
> Mapping is probably the closest thing to a solved problem in autonomous driving.
LOL! Not even close to true. “We can do it” != “we can do it without burning billions of dollars per year”
> so it's not like investors are deceived
Investors (and consumers) are absolutely deceived. I don’t really care: being a VC is risky. But these types of videos are intentionally deceiving. Only the best of many runs is shown. Editing is often used. The routes have HD mapping that won’t be collected universally (due to cost problems). How is that not deception in your mind?
> LOL! Not even close to true. “We can do it” != “we can do it without burning billions of dollars per year”
"We can do it" = closest thing to solved. No one can say without a doubt we can do it for the other parts.
> How is that not deception in your mind?
You used "fraud". Fraud requires damages to a party. All the VCs have asked these questions and were given answers satisfactory enough to invest.
Here's a basic one they can tell investors: the top 10 cities for ride-sharing comprise 70% of the total market. It will cost $X to map and permanently have access to the vast majority of the market. We believe in addition, we can induce demand so this 70% of the market becomes a massive multiple of the current market.
If you're going to be this snarky, at least do some basic research.
I literally work at an automotive OEM that maintains its own AV team and map infra. I have seen the balance sheets. It’s not going to scale.
Also, you make the inverse claim without evidence or any purported industry expertise. Where’s your evidence that Waymo can just walk into a new city without ballooning costs? If they can do it, why don’t they? That which has been asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.
> You used "fraud". Fraud requires damages to a party
Tesla owners bought a product called “Full Self-Driving”. You are illiterate if you don’t consider that product name tantamount to fraud if the car can’t drive itself.
Investors were clearly lied to. Once again, I don’t care about VC money. Part of the game to lose it.
An automotive OEM would probably have a hell of a time scaling a video streaming website or a search engine as well. Yet it scaled when a tech company did it.
> Tesla owners bought a product called “Full Self-Driving”.
Can you point out where I used the word "Tesla"?
https://medium.com/cruise/hd-maps-self-driving-cars-b6444720...
https://blog.waymo.com/2019/09/building-maps-for-self-drivin...
https://zoox.com/journal/putting-our-robots-on-the-map/
When you're ignorant on a topic, it's not surprising that every fact you come across might end up being misconstrued as discovering some well-hidden secret.
You are a moron and I seem to have struck a nerve. Hello, salty Tesla owner or engineer.
Meanwhile working at an automotive OEM speaks to your qualifications on the subject about as much as being a mechanic at a car dealer: it doesn't.
The only person who sounds like they've had a nerve struck is the one who immediately devolved into name calling the moment they were called out.
I think we're seeing what happens when FOMO meets "missed out". It'd just be more humorous if you weren't projecting your anger onto me.
Where? A narrow area in which you can create ultra-HD maps that are in no way indicative of the general case?
If you’re at Cruise, I can only grab a ride between 10 pm and 5:30 am (lol, lmao). If you’re at Waymo, your beta is still closed (though I have several invites from former colleagues) and you only serve a tiny fraction of realistic destinations in the city. Do you think this proves your point? Let me restate my position: you can’t scale to the general case. You never will. You will be stuck in Phoenix and specific part of SF forever. Your business will never be viable. Your vehicles will never be able to navigate roads without a prohibitively costly mapping effort in that region that doesn’t scale. Your valuation will continue to decline. What part of offering unsafe rides to friends and family right now changes that?
You're already behind on which cities are being mapped by the way.
Funded by investors or search ads, not ride fares. And in a $200k vehicle that will never be economically viable. Your resume will be embarrassing in a few years if you stick around. Do yourself a favor and get out before you go to zero.
First off, you're saying AV companies share examples from repeated runs? What a truly shocking insight to absolutely no one. That's how you track improvement in AVs, repeating runs and comparing. There's no trickery involved in the fact you see runs that were repeated when almost all runs are repeated by design.
Second, what Tesla did is nothing like you described. Tesla lied about who was running the drive they showed. A human was driving when they claimed the human was only there for legal reasons. No one else has done that.
Maybe hold the "I told you so" for something you understand enough to actually tell anyone anything about.
I work in computer vision and work at an automotive OEM. Left autonomous field specifically because it was fraudulent. Have many friends that helped stage fraudulent videos like the ones that Tesla/Zoox/Waymo put out regularly.
When you post a video of a “successful” drive, have the CEO tweet about it and say the car is driving itself, yet the same software version of your autonomous stack literally crashed on an earlier run, you’re committing fraud. If you imply via video that your AV can handle a certain type of driving scenario without issues, yet in the actual video your AV is relying on an ultra-HD map of that specific route that your company cannot conceivably collect for the majority of roads, you’re also committing fraud. If you think otherwise you’re drinking somebody’s Koolaid.
Right. Just like Steve Jobs holding an iPhone that crashed before the keynote is fraud.
Fraud is saying it's driving itself when a human is driving.
> If you imply via video that your AV can handle a certain type of driving scenario without issues, yet in the actual video your AV is relying on an ultra-HD map of that specific route that your company cannot conceivably collect for the majority of roads, you’re also committing fraud.
This is so utterly nonsensical I don't even know where to start. Driving scenarios are not fungible. Navigating around a stopped car in downtown SF is not the same as being able to navigate around a stopped car in Mumbai rush hour, or navigating around a stopped car in the middle of a California wildfire with 0 visibility and a fire roaring 10 feet away.
So when a video shows that the vehicle can handle a given situation and the vehicle handles it on video, the implication is not "we've now solved every variation of this situation to ever exist", the implication is "we were able to handle the situation you just witnessed".
I thought it ended at you not understanding EVs, but it's even worse: you don't even know what "fraud" means, and you clearly don't understand how bleeding edge technology is presented. That mentality is definitely more at home in the fossilized environment of an automotive OEM, but it must certainly be interesting to watch all that "fraud" translate into hundreds of thousands of miles on public roads and open betas with real riders... sour grapes much?
Apple planned for the iPhone to do all those things. Tesla has never planned for their cars to do those things, and to "advertise" what their cars could and would do, they used a car that was not and is not one that you or I could ever acquire.
I specifically call out Tesla as being completely fraudulent (and we're literally replying to their director of Autopilot say the same). They are not even in the same game as actual AV companies when our sensor stacks are worth more than the entire vehicle they claim as "FSD"
In response to the link you provided though, it's fair to add that with current FSD beta, a trip such as the one Tesla faked in 2016, is now almost trivial. So there's definitely some progress in the space. Of course the timeline Elon (and others) claimed were absolutely bullshit.
Or Tesla's video that says "the driver is only in the seat for legal reasons - the car is driving itself"?
I still wonder how him lying about robotaxi in 2019, the whole 2 minutes speech he gave that prompted the rapid increase in share price, is any different from Elisabeth Holmes speech about Theranos blood recognition. Except that Holmes did not sell any Theranos share. I must be missing something, because it seems like I'm the only one perturbed by this.
What Tesla did for the world, in my opinion, was make electric cars a desirable product. Before Tesla, the image of an electric car was that of a compromise, a vehicle for "hippies" and not people who love cars. In that regard, they got some things right. I really doubt the F150 Lightning would have happened if not for Tesla's successes in the market, for example.
And even still, it does seem like the market has a lot of catching up to do. While I'm not an expert, it seems like the Model Y heat pump is still state of the art electric vehicle engineering. Hopefully in the future, all electric cars will have high performance heat pumps and sophisticated temperature management for the battery system, as it would definitely alleviate winter range concerns. I think right now a lot of people believe that it is impossible to have an electric car that performs well in cold environments, but it seems like it is possible to maintain almost all of the range with enough engineering.
It's sad to see Tesla in the dumps like this. It's easy to meme on it, but the truth is that behind the many issues, the team did accomplish something pretty incredible. It really isn't every other day that a new car manufacturer pops up and manages to swipe significant marketshare. When I first moved to the California bay area, it was pretty novel seeing just how many Tesla's there were. But back here in the Midwest again, it's getting to be kind of uncommon to not see one on a drive nowadays, too.
Why is it "sad to see" potentially fraudulent goings-on brought to light?
Good question, to be honest, I have no idea since that's not what I said.
It may have cracked open the market for electric cars, but now it's recklessly playing with people lives. If for this and other reasons it goes out of business that's perfectly fine. Other companies will produce breakthroughs and Tesla doesn't matter is the greater scheme of progress.
Their stock was an appreciation and acknowledgement of that? They were valued more than all of their ( major) competitors' market cap aggregated together at one point. Many argue that it still is overvalued.
The incident cited above is on the same slippery slope as the Nikola demo, just more nuanced. It is well worth a discourse.
You'll never have all the range because you're going to have to spend some amount of energy on heat, and even with heat pumps it's often more energy heating a space than cooling when it's hot. Where humans mostly are, it gets way colder than room temperature than it gets hotter. Sure it might get to 110F in Phoenix (+38F from 72), but it'll get to -40 in the cold areas of the US (-112F from 72F). That bigger temperature differential means more energy.
Don't get me wrong I imagine there's some improvements to be made out there, but with current battery chemistries and needing to warm a cabin you're gonna spend a lot of energy on heating no matter what.
I wish Tesla hadn't gone whole-hog after full self driving, and had just concentrated on making a Better Car.
The difference between Trevor Milton (Nikola founder) and Elon Musk is that the latter tends to deliver something resembling what he promised even though he lies and exaggerates a lot.
Trevor Milton couldn’t even make a car! If he had done that, he’ll be rolling in his hundreds of millions of cash from stock sales thanks to hype and occasional lies instead of waiting to go to federal prison.
[1] https://news.yahoo.com/elon-musk-self-driving-teslas-1756196...
Obviously this was just extremely dry and self-deprecating satire from a master troll and shitposter, not an actual misstatement of fact by a CEO
(/s)
This part is even worse.
C'mon Reuters, you're better than this article. Or are you?
That part of the video implies Teslas are self-driving and that does not exist now
That honestly sounds like the description is "unpredictable and dangerous".
The driver knew about how this part of the road was incorrectly recognized by the software yet didn’t pay attention.
You get sue for the life you didn’t save and get almost zero merits for the ones you did.
Walter Huang’s Tesla drove into a barrier on the 101 not far from Tesla’s Palo Alto facility. It drove into a barrier because of its naive vision-only system paired with the constantly changing and faded lane lines on the 101 due to construction. If Teslas can’t drive the 101 without mistakes, they can’t drive anywhere. It’s literally right down the road from their autonomous driving team’s office.
What if it’s a net positive (reduction of death) and delaying the progress cause more death, who is accountable for those death?
The Tesla system was approved by the relevant authorities or they would not be able to drive them in the US. If the system was required to nag the driver by law and didn’t then it is a breach of the law. If the system is imperfect, know to be so and approved that way I see no foul play.
If the law isn’t good, change the law.
I don’t. Should you be able to sell an unsafe car just because you speculate about some non-existent alien technology that would make it safe if it existed? Why?
> If the system is imperfect, know to be so and approved that way I see no foul play.
So if NHTSA doesn’t force their hand then they have no obligation to make a safe driving system, even if they know it to be unsafe? I’m very glad that countless engineers at Volvo (3-point seatbelts) and GM (airbags) and others didn’t have that mindset.
Honestly that isn't the question here and also not society's problem. If Tesla can't make the business model work, that is a Tesla problem.
Plenty of other companies are making great progress on autonomous vehicles without passing a non-working system off as something that "drives itself (no human input at all) thru urban streets to highway to streets, then finds a parking spot". It is more expensive that way and requires more upfront costs, but thems the breaks.
>If the law isn’t good, change the law.
This thread is literally about a deposition in a court case. It might not require any change of law. It might not be a criminal trial, but civil cases can be just as effective at getting bad actors and their faulty products out of the market.
There is alway a tradeoff of progress and safety. 46 000 people die in car accident each year in the US I hope that this also count in the balance, not only the one who ignore all the advices while using autopilot.
Isn't that just like, an insanely high bar of fraud to meet? How many things in recent memory rise to the level of fraud that Theranos represents?
"Not the most fraudulent fraudsters" just comes across as a damningly weak defense (imo).
I think the worst thing they did was giving those device out to healthcare institutions, when they knew it was inaccurate.
I'm not defending her, she was clearly dangerously delusional, but I think it explains why she didn't behave like a classical con artist/scammer
Mr. SBF from FTX would like to have a word with you.
The missing comma before "and fraud" is doing a lot of work in this sentence.
I think your punctuation is doing you a disservice.
/s
The problem is that neither delivered those things to the particular qualities promised.
He's clearly responsible for more innovation across multiple sectors than anyone alive. Maybe he's an asshole too, but no one get's the same level of scrutiny.
How about this article from 2018 suggesting GM will have a wheelless car in 2019? https://www.wired.com/story/gm-cruise-self-driving-car-launc...
Nobody cares to follow up and hate on Mary Barra everytime there's an AV or EV conversation. It's absurd
This is the cost of the kind of marketing Elon engages in. By making himself a very prominent public individual and the face of Tesla, he's inextricably tied to the brand. No one knows who Mary Barra is because she's not on Twitter replying to AOC with sick memes. Unfortunately the knife cuts both ways and now that Elon is regarded with a lot of suspicion by many that's transferring to Tesla as well.
Responsible in what sense? In the sense that he bankrolled his engineers? If that's the case then couldn't we draw the line all the way back to his father who bankrolled him?
It's hard to see Elon as a visionary these days. Most of his businesses already existed before he took the helm, including Tesla. Twitter has been a shitshow to say the least. The only remaining thing in my eyes is SpaceX, and we shouldn't fall into that trap of giving the billionaire all the credit.
In the sense that without him the innovation would not exist or become mainstream. Don't be fooled into thinking he only has cash to offer. John Carmack himself has stated that he thinks Elon is in his wheelhouse in terms of engineering.
>Most of his businesses already existed before he took the helm, including Tesla.
Tesla was a concept car at the time, not a mass production vehicle with no intentions of ever making millions of cars, if you don't see why they are different I don't know how to help you. The production is at least as hard as the innovation.