Pretty sure mini splits are significantly more efficient today, with SCOP of above 5, so that seems unlikely?
The stat is that you lose between 25-40% efficiency for "typical" existing installations. The document goes on to explain that an insulated duct which doesn't leak doesn't have this kind of efficiency loss.
[1] https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www1.eere.energy.gov/bu...