> But normal users don't really give a crap about Twitter politics.
Your mistake is thinking Twitter users were normal users to begin with.
Twitter users have always been weird. There's a reason the user base never really grew after hitting a certain plateau. It's always catered to chronically online, media savvy, news obsessed types.
They are by definition enthusiasts.
> The people who don't think about Twitter as a community or wider thing and just want to retweet funny cat pictures or whatever.
You're describing Facebook and Instagram, not Twitter.
> They start out posting everything on Mastodon. Then they realize they're leaving lots of people out, and they start posting everything on both platforms. Then slowly, one post at a time, the laziness sets in and before you know it they're posting exclusively on Twitter
People weren't even doing that with Twitter.
The people who actually made Twitter successful--the celebrities, news sources, "influencers, etc--have always had a presence on multiple social media platforms, whether it was Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, etc.
If Mastodon is successful, it's just gonna be another one of those platforms.
And hence, this article.