Eggs are 60% more expensive than last year in the US
semafor.com
semafor.com
In 1966, the price of eggs rose to a level that President Lyndon Johnson judged, God knows how, was too high. There were two culprits – supply and demand – and Johnson’s agriculture secretary told him there was not much that could be done. LBJ, however, was a can-do fellow who directed the US surgeon general to dampen demand by warning the nation about the hazards of cholesterol in eggs.
This hasn't been true for 18 years.
High sugar in blood is bad. High sugar and high fat in the bloodstream is worse. Also, recent studies seem to show that cholesterol limits are arbitrary and don't mean much in a vacuum: there seem to be a correlation between high LDL levels and longevity—i.e. people that live longer tend to have higher levels of LDL than average recommendations. Go figure.
The important levels for health are: stable glucose/insulin system, lower triglycerides, lower trig/HDL ratio. Everything else is too noisy a signal, including just measuring dietary cholesterol.
There is about 10x more unesterified (absorbable) cholesterol secreted into bile than one typically eats in a normal day.
> Eating cholesterol has very little impact on the cholesterol levels in your body. This is a fact, not my opinion. Anyone who tells you different is, at best, ignorant of this topic. At worst, they are a deliberate charlatan. Years ago the Canadian Guidelines removed the limitation of dietary cholesterol. The rest of the world, especially the United States, needs to catch up.
https://peterattiamd.com/the-straight-dope-on-cholesterol-pa...
The only caveat I would is that there is weak evidence for a "dietary cholesterol hyperresponder" phenotype that is more sensitive to dietary cholesterol than the general population.
I probably have (heterozygous) familial hypercholesterolemia, so my diet (even saturated fat) unfortunately doesn't influence the (very high) levels I have anyways. I'm envious of people like you, for sure.
As you mentioned, eating whole, healthily prepared eggs and meat makes a difference. If you were getting that much egg and beef from McDonald’s you would likely be buried in the ground by now.
I used to eat like you and my blood work was horrifying, though. I’d say I was eating around 95% whole foods by volume, though I had a weakness for rice noodles and fermented sausages. I stopped that diet though and now my blood work is excellent, too.
This is a contentious but super interesting thing. There are some factors here I suspect matter a lot, but haven’t been properly proven out yet. I do think in the next decade or two we will start to get a good grasp on it.
One is gut flora and enzyme production. Essentially, where is that food broken down and what’s present as it happens? This is a big science experiment with significant variance across individuals. One common variable that’s becoming very obvious though is that people who adopt “western diets” tend to lose a staggering amount of gut flora diversity. I think this matters a lot for anecdotal but also research-oriented reasons.
I had a chronic bacterial illness which required nuclear-grade antibiotic regimens and that completely crushed me. I was burping up the most putrid gases, getting awful cramps, and having bizarre GI motility issues for over a year after; I’d never had troubles with food in my life. I’ve wondered often if I’d done my blood work before that, when I didn’t feel like garbage eating that food, if it might have looked good like yours. I really wish I started doing blood work sooner. Regardless, I wonder if gut flora can protect us from the harms that the greater body of evidence implies high amounts of saturated and trans fats can cause.
I’m totally plant-based now, and I meet countless people who say “I can’t eat like that because I just feel like shit all the time”. And I think yeah, I did too. I had to do all kinds of stuff to build my guts back up and now I’m a plant crushing machine. Had I eaten like this when I ate a lot of meat, I’d be bloated and miserable all the time. There’s no way I could handle so much fiber and sheer bulk. What your flora and system is accustomed to seems crucial to both what you’re able to eat, what you want to eat, and how well it supports your health.
As for enzymes, we know various foods stimulate enzyme production and in their absence that enzyme will reduce or even vanish — sometimes permanently. What you eat with your eggs and steak, whether it’s with the meal or 12 hours later, very well could protect you from what harms others. This kind of thing is researched and there’s growing evidence for its importance, but it isn’t clear who/when/what happens since nutrition is so incredibly diverse. I can’t wait until we understand protective mechanisms (enzymes or otherwise) better. I suppose the best known is antioxidants, but there must be so many more.
Finally, there’s the genetic factor question. We know there are hyper responders to saturated and trans fats. Are there hypo responders? I haven’t read up on that. If so, the greater body of evidence would indicate that most people are not hypo responders at all, and that saturated fat intake (animal or plant) can easily become excessive and harmful.
All of this is to say that I doubt there’s a one size fits all in any case, but since saturated fat appears to become harmful in most populations, I think people should be careful and if it’s an option, so regular blood work. I’m also not aiming to be contentious or argumentative; I find this stuff interesting as hell and love to discuss it (and learn things — I’m by no means an expert and I don’t have all the data).
>If you were getting that much egg and beef from McDonald’s you would likely be buried in the ground by now.
This is my hunch too, when i really got serious about my diet and health I was worried eating all these eggs and meat was going to cause issues so made sure to get blood tests etc. This sort of started me down the rabbit hole of realizing that almost every single thing I had ever been told about nutrition was either misleading or just flat out wrong.
The gut biome stuff is fascinating to me and it feels like it's so underexplored. Can't wait to see what kinds of things we learn about it.
One reason I don't think i'm as optimistic as you is that it feels like society doesn't want us to understand this stuff. Between the billion dollar companies influencing regulations, massive marketing budgets of these food-poison companies, and then even the populace doesn't want to know the truth. Everyone just wants to cope and complain and do stupid fad diets instead of learn or change anything.
There are so many internal and external forces pushing us to take the immediately gratifying path of least resistance.
We already know (and have known for decades) that a diet including mostly whole foods based around mostly plants seems to yield populations with far less disease and longer lifespans. It may not fit everyone, but it would certainly work for most people currently suffering. We don’t need to know more about gut flora and protective enzymes to help them; we need to stop hurting them with an overly permissive health industry and sabotaging food processing industry. We’ve had generations of normalizing this stuff. We have intelligent people talking about how statins are game changers and various weight loss drugs are revolutionary. It’s a sort of tragedy to me that we aren’t focused on making these things redundant and eliminating the root problem. It’s like we’ve simply accepted excess and the innate self-abuse of our lifestyles.
I also had this diet for many years. Wait till you get older. This is a diet will run your cholesterol through the roof.
From what?
https://www.drmirkin.com/histories-and-mysteries/lyndon-bain...
Unrelated:- I regard him as one of the best presidents.
I say Coke's policies are evil because I saw inside the room.
The first step in playbook was paying the NAACP + other civil rights groups to call opponents racist
Coke gave millions to the NAACP and the Hispanic Federation - both directly and through front groups like the American Beverage Association.
This picked up in 2011-2013 - when the Farm Bill and soda taxes were under consideration. https://nutritioninsight.com/news/cspi-report-criticizes-big...
The conversations inside these rooms was depressingly transactional:
"We (Coke) will give you money. You need to paint opponents of us as racist."
The effort was successful, and the message was carried in thousands of articles between 2011-2013.
Coke's position was clear: soda is one of the cheapest ways to get calories - a flagrantly inaccurate statement when factoring in the health consequences.
I watched as the FDA funneled money to professors at leading universities - as well as think tanks on the left and right - to create studies showing soda taxes hurt the poor. They also paid for studies that say drinking soda DIDN'T cause obesity. https://reuters.com/article/us-usa-drinks-tax/soda-tax-war-t...
Soda companies are deeply embedded in the USDA - so much so that the agency carries discredited talking points like "there are no bad food, only bad diets."
This ignores fact that sugar is highly addictive and has negative nutritional value.
In the end: racial tensions flared, soda spending was kept in SNAP funding, and many of the soda taxes were defeated...
I think we have an accepted fallacy in logic where we apply: Assume ignorance before malice.
I do agree ignorance is far more probable than malice, but malicious people are incredibly skilled at exploitation of ignorance and they use that skill without missing a beat.
It depends on what the goal is.
If one seeks an opportunity to punish the NAACP or to chill discussion of racism, focusing just on the NAACP might be a way to do that.
Otherwise, if one seeks to end harmful astroturfing[1], then directing punishment (eg: press+fines) at the companies/lobbyists that craft those campaigns seems more effective.
As for the non-profits that get duped by bad-faith corporate campaigns, being held up as a hapless corporate stooge should provide all the aversion anyone could want.
It's funny, I heard my father-in-law parroting this when complaining about soda taxes. I also don't care for the taxes, but I don't see them as inherently racist. In fact, hearing him say this made me think that the characterization of the tax being racist is, itself, racist, as it bears the presumption that various minorities more regularly make the irresponsible personal choice of drinking soda, and this is without any data to prove it.
The argument should be that regressive taxes like soda taxes, much like speeding tickets, affects the poor at a much greater clip. Who cares about a soda tax or a speeding ticket when you make 500k a year? If you make that much and you want soda or you want to speed, you're going to do it. However, if you make 28k a year, the calculation is much different.
In America, poverty and race are strongly correlated (and there's causation, but I digress). Because of that, it's easy, although inaccurate, to use classism and racism interchangeably.
Calling someone racist creates a larger emotional response and is more damaging to social equity than calling someone classist.
Hence calling soda taxes racist.
Also, wouldn't we expect that organizations that are explicitly anti-racist would conclude that because classist policies or laws have racially disparate impacts, addressing them still increases racial equity even if they are ostensibly motivated by race-neutral class concerns?
I would not contend that they were not racist. I wasn't implying that every classist action is actually racist or vice-versa. Just that some are incorrectly labeled for rhetorical effect.
> addressing them still increases racial equity even if they are ostensibly motivated by race-neutral class concerns
Yep, nearly anything that effects class equity in the US will also effect racial equity.
A lot of otherwise reasonable people that I had known at the time told me that I shouldn't be racist by voicing my support for these policies
I asked them to explain, but they would not, (do your own research, etc.) so I never really got a hold of their logic since the research that I pulled up always seemed so tenuous at best. I don't really recall if the taxes went through or not
This sort of shines a light on all of it though. Shows how susceptible we all are to this kind of manipulation =\
at the least, tax at sales tends to be regressive, affecting poor people more than not poor, which maybe you could claim is racist. but pa constitution doesnt allow anything but flat taxes, so unfortunately theres basically no progressive taxing here. sin taxes in general i find somewhat troubling, sure its a luxury but why is this luxury deserve more tax than that.
I'm always amazed at how many people flat out get angry with me when I say fast food is simply not cheaper than cooking yourself, provided you have a kitchen. I'm consistently told that that level of thinking is necessarily classist (and therefore racist), because it's more time, effort, and in the short-term, money, that needs to be involved.
I do not understand how making stir fry with chicken breast/thighs, frozen veggies, and rice is somehow the most expensive, time-consuming task in the world, but apparently that's a high-class dinner to many folks on the internet, and I'm 100% convinced it's because of the lie they are told (and then perpetuate) that the dollar amount you see in front of you is the dollar amount in totality.
Don't do Reddit, folks.
Some fruits may be not much better than candy in that the sugar can metabolize quickly, but apples aren't one of those despite their fructose content.
There is as much protein in broccoli as there is fiber in apples.
To get your daily suggested intake of fiber (30 grams), you'd need to eat almost three pounds of apples a day.
I fail to see the harm. If I did feel wild one day and decide to down a dozen apples (I'm not sure I physically even could), I'd meet my fiber RDA for that day, and still have only eaten 504 calories worth of carbs.
You may object that I'm not getting any micronutrients this way, but most sources of micronutrients are nearly irrelevant calorically, so they don't really matter when you talk about capacity planning for macronutrients and calories.
Seeing no harm in eating apples is like seeing no harm in eating candy. Sure, eating a piece of candy once is trivial -- but you're insisting on candy as a part of my diet, not as an incidental, rare snack. Eating candy only has downsides.
You may want to factor in that the 20 minutes they have to acquire and prep a meal is already coming out of the 6 hours they have allocated for sleep.
Having done a decade of hunger-level poverty, I found it surprising busy.
Driving to Taco Time every day takes time, gas, and costs $20 for a meal.
Ironically, I microwave meals and such not because I'm poor, but to save time. I dislike going to restaurants and even McBurger because it takes too much time.
Another meal I like takes less than a minute. Pour some oats in a bowl. Add raisins. Add milk. Ready to eat. I doubt it costs 50 cents. Or make a couple cheese sandwiches with butter and a pickle.
They do not sound like something that can be done consistently by someone without regular transportation or pay.
> They do not sound like something that can be done consistently by someone without regular transportation or pay.
If someone has transportation to go to a fast food restaurant, they have transportation to go to a corner store and buy a can of beans. If they have money for one, they have money for the other. It's actually usually cheaper not to eat the junk food.
Reality is that most poor people eat junk food because it's less effort, and because the high amounts of salt, fat, and sugar that make it so unhealthy are nearly addictive and act as a comfort.
There's a number of ways this wouldn't be true and they aren't difficult to come up with.
Beyond that, the discussion is encapsulating somewhat broader points - the resources it takes to eat consistently healthy vs eating cheaply. It wouldn't make sense to only include fast food in the poor diet options.
Your seem to be asserting this: That someone living in a healthy-food dessert and without reliable access to transportation has no excuse to not consistently eat a healthy diet.
I counter that 60 seconds of thinking it thru would produce any number of scenarios that clearly speak against that assertion.
> Reality is that most poor people eat junk food because it's less effort, and because the high amounts of salt, fat, and sugar that make it so unhealthy are nearly addictive and act as a comfort.
This is meaningfully related, though it's a bit over declared. Some with limited access to resources may be able to put a healthy meal together if they're playing their A Game. But A Games are hard to come by for folks condemned to survival mode - maybe the sort where 5 hours sleep is the norm along with caregiving multiple people while working multiple jobs.
What are the poor people supposed to live off of? Potatoes, beans, and rice 24/7?
That diet is a tough sell. Especially since people in a low socioeconomic position are frequently quite busy trying to hold life together between 2-4 jobs and a family which includes children. I can understand why someone in this position would spring for something quick, easy, flavorful, and requiring as little expenditure of mental and emotional energy as possible.
The lack of empathy demonstrated throughout this thread for less well-off folks is not surprising but still a disappointing non-deviation from the HN stereotype. Why is it so hard to imagine being in someone else's shitty position? Being poor obviously sucks, it wears people down and disrupts and interferes with making optimal long-term decisions. This is obvious and I can't say I've ever truly been in this exact situation.
I believe many people hold on to that sentiment because it's easier to blame a boogieman than to educate themselves on affordable, healthy diets and execute on learning to shop and cook for yourself.
I am, however, interested in bringing better educational resources and time-saving instruments to consumers. Many people grow up in an environment where they don't know how to properly shop in a grocery store. For example, you give someone a $50 gift card to the supermarket and they walk out with a cart full of crap, because it's all they knew growing up.
Then once you teach someone how to shop, they may not have experience cooking for themselves. For those of us who grew up cooking with our parents and continued to do so for ourselves, it's hard to imagine how overwhelming the learning process can be. If you grew up in a lower income environment with busy parent(s), chances are you never helped out in the kitchen with your mom or dad. They probably brought home a kid's meal from McDonalds on their way back from their second job.
Well, that's an easy fix. Ask your employer to cut your salary to ~$20k-$30k. Tell them that you're going to be in the office at 7 on-the-dot, and he can write you up if you're 5 minutes early or late; you're going to be there for 8-10 hours, w/ a 30-minute lunch and two 15-minute breaks (again, write-ups for taking even a minute longer than alotted). Sell your car, get a used one (financed, of course), model year before 2012, 80k miles minimum; give the profit away (give away any savings you have, too; you can't access any of your retirement or investment accounts, either). Insist that any credit you have access to be cut severely and the rates jacked up. Sell anything you own other than your car that's worth more than $2k, give the money away. You are also now limited to going 20-30 minutes out of your way to the "good" grocery store, since you are moving to a food desert. Your mattress now comes in a box from Wal-Mart; get rid of any sleep or wake-up aids other than your cell phone. Hard mode: separate from your spouse, if you have one, and adopt as many kids as you need to get to 2 or 3.
People are not making poor individual choices. They are, collectively, subject to perverse incentives that are imposed by a regulatory-industrial complex that profits from the ill health they develop when behaving as might be expected of any normal human being of the past two centuries. Thank you for being frustrated at the state of the world; it means that you recognize that there are improvements to be made. First step: stop blaming the wrong people.
And for the record, I cook, but I only have time to because I'm unemployed.
I think the challenge here is looking at numbers without factoring in reality.
A common scenario in poverty is money isn't available when it's needed. If one has $4 today for food now and will have $4 more tomorrow, their choices are to forgo eating until they can save up the ingredients or buy whatever food can be had today.
Edit: No, this is the same text, under the name of George Will from the day before: https://nypost.com/2008/12/29/lbj-the-egg-czar-other-govt-he...
Weird...
December 2022 news article says 52,695,450 chickens killed in the US alone. About the same number in Europe. 10 million in Japan.
https://www.npr.org/2022/12/02/1140076426/what-we-know-about...
https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/11/business/bird-flu-japan-chick...
However she said they had chicken legs that were .49/lb which is a great price but hard to reconcile with the narrative that avian flu is the cause for the price increases. Why are broiler chicken cheap but eggs from layer hens not?
Just to give an example, I (and I think most humans) feel negatively about deforestation or destruction of plant life because it is destroying or profaning something beautiful. It’s like burning art.
Same with the chickens. I’m not sure I consider factory farming immoral, and I definitely don’t consider killing animals for food immoral. I grew up raising chickens (laying hens, it was a family hobby and not a business)and don’t feel any moral or aesthetic issue with killing them. I also hunt and fish a lot, my freezers are full of wild game whose lives I personally ended.
Still, certain kinds of factory farming, like the raising of chicken-blobs, disturb me because they take something I find beautiful and make it ugly. Not sure what to make of the disturbed feeling tho, it’s not a moral condemnation or political position.
That’s the best way I can put it on the internet.
This is a highly interesting standpoint-- would you consider it morally problematic to kill more intelligent animals for food, like dogs?
What about human children (younger than a year? younger than 6?).
Is there a line for you somewhere? Where approximately and why?
This is drastically different from myself and most meateaters I know which concede moral problems with killing animals for food in general but ignore them in favor of enjoyment of food, so I'm very curious about how your framework looks like.
Why would it be moral to farm cows but not horses, and pigs but not hares?
horrific. they breed frankenstein bodied animals, that this is even allowed makes me sick.
In 2019, I picked up 15 dozen eggs for $8.69, and the 5 dozen was $8.99 at that time. (There were times when they didn't stock the 15 dozen, so I had to opt for 5 -- a much more expensive $1.80/dozen but still reasonable.)
I can't say how my experience tracked or would have tracked inflation, but I can say that even before the pandemic, I did see wildly varying prices on things. Costco's large vanilla extract was once around $10 (though this was before my spreadsheet, so I don't have dates/exact prices). It was up to $35 in '18, then down to $30 a year later, and just a few days ago, I noticed it for a little over $20. But 25# of flour used to be around $6-7, and I bought a bunch the other day for ~$12. So some things up, others down.
Is there a typo?
I recently went to buy eggs at a higher end store and the only eggs available were cage free, but would have been less expensive than generic eggs.
Might I suggest buying eggs from a normal grocery store or other alternative source? That's $7.33 per dozen and unless you have some very unusual situation, a dozen eggs can be had for less than half that price at a grocery store.
Canada, under $4 cad per dozen which is about $3.20 USD. Saw about $4.39 when I was in San Francisco last month, I (perhaps wrongly) made the assumption that similar would be available elsewhere.
https://abc7.com/egg-prices-in-california-avian-flu-bird-cag...
I’m just not seeing these quoted prices anywhere.
...2015.
And that's without factoring in inflation.
Healthy or not, a chicken can only give it's two wings once. Laying hens produce eggs repeatedly for as long as their bodies allow.
Although I suspect in short time we'll find out that the price hikes due to "bird flu" and "inflation" become... permanent.
Not exactly the strongest counterexample I've ever seen, though (barely) technically correct.
And the last deflationary "period" (a single year) before that was ... drumroll... 1949, following 3 years of >8% inflation.
0. https://taxfoundation.org/historical-income-tax-rates-bracke...
1. https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/effective-income-tax-...
On average, aka the vast majority of tax revenue, it's stayed constant according to your own source.
Food, electricity, heating, all went up from minimum 30% to nearly doubled. Luckily my rent and doctor's bills went up only 10% so thank God about that.
Of course inflation is permanent. The mechanics of money would break down otherwise. When money can deflate, money becomes an investment vehicle like crypto did and we know how bad that is.
When there is a threat of inflation, it forces people to transfer money instead of hoarding it. That is the entire purpose of money.
Now, about the price hike… is it permanent? Probably not when there are 160,000 competing poultry farms.
This strong flu will not be gone in a while and it speaks for the position that current large scale farming is not sustainable.
Someone who has disposable income but doesn't care would buy normal eggs before, lowering the demand for regulation-compliant eggs.
Now, the store only stocks regulation compliant eggs, so that's what the person buys, increasing demand.
To be a "free-range" or "pasture-raised" chicken you simply need access to the outdoors. So, these animals are kept in the same cramped, feces-filled hothouses that the "budget chickens" are, but there's a tiny hole in the side of the barn where they can access a tiny bit of grass. That's it.
There is no incentive for these companies to do anything above the bare minimum; you will never find a large-scale egg supplier that raises chickens in the idyllic environment you may picture in your head.
Organic/Free range labeling is almost an outright scam. Very few operations (almost guaranteed to not be one you see in your grocery store) are what people imagine when they see this marketing. Most operations you could not tell the difference between chickens raised for that label vs. the "factory farm" operation across the street.
Source: family is organic market garden farmers, sells free range eggs. Organic labeling is one of the biggest scams I've ever personally witnessed.
If you actually care about this (almost no one does, they just say they do), you need to buy eggs direct from the source. Period. There is no other way to get what you are imagining.
Normally Pasture Raised means
- at least 1.8 square feet of indoor floor space each
- continuous access to a vegetation-covered outdoor area in which to roam and forage
- at least 4 square feet of outdoor space each
- access to perching and nesting boxes
I buy from Small Farms also...
As bare as these requirements are, they only exist because without them there is literally no reason to try. And even with them, there is only the incentive to legally meet the requirements, nothing else. The labels are for us, not the chickens.
But then we went back the next day and they had a few dozen eggs.
Or: the only reason I was buying generic eggs in the first place was that they were half the price of your Pasture Raised Organic eggs. Once they are almost the same price, I might as well buy Pasture Raised Organic eggs.
Why would a seller sell them for any less than they can get? Farms tend to be incredibly low margin businesses, so selling below market is just utterly silly.
Prices are set at the margin, they are not set by cost of production other than to act as a floor where companies outright go out of business.
I think there are normally ~400 million egg laying hens in the US and they've had to kill at least 44 million (filtered by 'table egg' and summed) [2]
[1] https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/APU0000708111
[2] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html
But they're great for redundancy (more & varied egg supply reduces the impact of supply chain shocks), to get the best quality eggs you can, and because it's just fun & rewarding.
The argument against backyard chickens would be health considerations i'd say, not cost. Curious.
My parents have a coup on their hobby farm which my dad built on the weekends. It looks great and the eggs taste even better. That said, they were never under the impression this was a way to _save_ money, the math just doesn't make any sense.
So realistically the difference is that I get fresh eggs every day, I never run out, and they are fun.
They lay their eggs in basically anything. Mine sit in a Aldi crate on it's side.
$600 on the largest coop Tractor Supply sold. It is just barely big enough for all the chickens but it does work.
The rest on reinforcement hardware since I have hawks and foxes all over my property. Metal mesh and wood to reinforce all around the coop. Also things like sand to fill the bottom of the coop, anchors to keep it down, etc.
Over time I spent a bit more to replace some bullshit hardware of the coop.
I could have saved some by building the coop from scratch but also this one has a nice design that I wouldn’t have come up with on my own without seeing how the chickens actually behave.
That said - we have had a lot more coop expenses than expected, because our neighbors wanted to be jerks about it and I wanted to keep the peace. So realistically the "savings" we would have had in egg costs have likely been eaten up or significantly reduced by having to rebuild / move our coop.
I think this is the catalyst I need to get started on a coop. If anyone has any plans or pointers for a coop, or raising chickens in the SW, would be much appreciated.
All that to say: the minimum threshold for starting backyard chicken keeping is very low. I’d recommend jumping in as cheap as possible and upgrading later if you find you enjoy it.
Source: I come from a farming family.
For the opossums, it's a stand off, the rooster just acts tough and makes a lot of noise so you can hopefully show up and scare it off. Weasels are annoying as they'll destroy eggs. Fox are particularly problematic though. They'll easily kill a rooster and are very quiet and conniving.
I'm in the Southeastern US in a suburb of a major city.
I think Costco locally sources their egg suppliers in some capacity which would explain these regional differences.
Let’s pretend Costco needs 100 eggs.
Normally 500 eggs are produced, but this year only 300 were produced.
Costco has a guaranteed contract and receives their 100 eggs. Everyone else who hasn’t paid yet fights over the remaining eggs and prices rise.
Southwest Airlines was also known for fuel agreements that hedged against sudden price increases.
You can take a look at APU0000708111 and see how crazy it's been the past 2-3 months.
Some farms will have lost a lot more and some will have lost less or none.
I think that most retailers have contracts with a specific set of farms to supply those eggs, which will only be a small subset of all egg farms.
It could simply be that the farms Costco has contracts with happen to mostly be ones that haven't been hit hard with avian flu.
There must be something that they do different in their business that makes these eggs less susceptible to the problems the other egg producers are having.
December 2022 news article says 52,695,450 chickens killed.
https://www.npr.org/2022/12/02/1140076426/what-we-know-about...
What was even more surprising is that the Vital Farms eggs did NOT go up in price very much.
Can't really substantiate this tho as I can't find online charts of oat milk prices lol
The issue is an anti-trust issue and consolidation.
I've taken to buying two bottles of the ultra-pasteurized when it's in stock, which of course makes me part of the problem.
In a vacuum it might be simple cause and effect, but nothing about the global situation in the past few years is simple. Money printing certainly had a part to play in inflation, but peeling it off from all the other factors and labeling it as the main culprit is kind of just mental gymnastics.
> Using the relationship in Figure 1, we calculate this as an increase of the PCE price level from 295.7 to a midpoint of estimates of 300.2, plus or minus 0.9.
> Expectation of additional debt forgiveness programs evokes a moral hazard incentive for college students to take out more loans and for universities to increase tuition rates.1 To the extent that inflation is inherently persistent, any initial price level increase would also lead to sustained inflation over the near future.
Would you consider perhaps that a sky-rocketing price in eggs, when inflation overall has been between 6% and 8% might be about something else?
https://fee.org/articles/federal-covid-spending-will-cost-41...
Fact check:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2022/04/14/fac...
https://theconversation.com/joe-bidens-us-1-9-trillion-stimu...
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/03/11/us/how-covid-...
It looks like Biden's contribution is about $2 trillion to families and individuals. Counting the previous administration: another $2 trillion to businesses, $1 trillion to state and local, and $1 trillion to healthcare and other programs, for about $5-6 trillion total.
Worst case, that's about $18,000 per capita for 332 million people in the US. Best case, more like $6,000, since much of the stimulus was in the form of payroll loans that businesses were supposed to pay back, although much of that has been forgiven. Without knowing more details, the best I can estimate is the logarithmic mean, which is about $11,000. Spread over 3 years, that's just under $4,000 per capita per year.
Note that this is less than the $3,000 per year that I got in Pell grants to attend college in the late 90s, when money was worth about twice what it's worth today. At a $23 trillion US GDP, there's $70,000 per capita to play with, so $4,000 extra per year would raise per capita income by 5.7%. High yes, but not much higher than a typical 3% inflation. Especially when much of the world was out of work for a year or two during the pandemic.
The real culprit is corporate price gouging and speculation:
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/08/26/all-us-are-payi...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/25/inflat...
I noticed that Google and even DuckDuckGo have ranked this information so low that hysterical headlines totally dominate search results. It will be interesting to see how investigative journalism traces these knee-jerk headlines to their sources. Although I doubt that any titans of industry or politicians will be unmasked before the next election.
Capitalism still works. You can only price gouge where you have a monopoly and unless you're proposing some massive intra/inter-industry wide conspiracy the answer is still simple inflation.
I did a deep dive this morning on the Federal Reserve's contribution to inflation, and it looks to me like interest rate hikes contradict quantitative easing. I think they had no choice but to lend more money during the pandemic, or else we might have faced the total loss of personal savings and a global depression. So they made up for that by raising interest rates later in an attempt to slow inflation. We can argue about the amounts, but their $7 trillion contribution just isn't that much when measured against the US's $23 trillion GDP IMHO.
I also stumbled onto an interesting insight. Most of our economic policies since Reagan have followed Milton Friedman. That's where the Fed's quantitative easing comes in, because it's based on the quantity theory of money (QTM) from David Hume and John Stuart Mill:
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042015/how-does-mon...
Keynesian economics (an alternative approach) rejects QTM and says that inflation comes from demand-pull and cost-push. To me this is self-evident, because even with no change in money supply, prices will rise due to increased demand when supply decreases because people are out of work.
Just so we're both on the same page, here's an alternative interpretation of inflation from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which examines demand-pull, cost-push and inflation expectations instead of QTM:
https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/causes...
Although they practiced quantitative easing in 2022 just like we did, and reached a similar 7% inflation rate. Which seems to indicate that they had no choice, meaning that inflation was structural outside the US too, and not due to a specific economic or political approach.
Notably, China began flirting with Keynesian economics in the late 90s. Here's an opinion piece from fee.org, which hosts the one I found supporting your initial argument:
https://fee.org/articles/chinas-flirtation-with-keynesian-ec...
Since that time, China's economy has grown exponentially and now they're eating our lunch:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply#/media/File:China...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply
So you say that capitalism still works, but this data challenges that assumption on a number of levels.
IMHO the financial elites of the world are effectively gamblers who make long bets on how this will all play out. Based on these figures, where are they most likely to place their bets for the best return? China and the developing nations it influences.
The propaganda against progressivism, socialism and communism is a knee-jerk reaction to the two lost decades we've had in the time since, as US wages have stagnated and we've lost our industrial capacity, including the closing of 70,000 factories, which began when the George W. Bush administration did nothing to stop outsourcing, and pretty much endorsed it to enrich its wealthy contributors with short-term gains:
https://checkyourfact.com/2018/04/12/fact-check-did-the-us-l...
The US is gradually losing its petro-dollar dominance and will probably lose its global policing and empire-building abilities by the middle of this century. We'll have to start producing and paying our own way again, not just run huge trade deficits and continue importing cheap goods. A similar thing happened when England lost its colonies.
So now we're colonizing ourselves in the search for cheap labor. At least we were until the pandemic, but people woke up. Now we see how wealth comes mostly from being born with it or skimming it from workers. A point proven every day by our leading billionaires.
If wealth doesn't come from hard work or saving, that creates cognitive dissonance. Which is the best explanation I can find for stuff like the former president's election.
And that's the real danger in all of this. Not that the US might adopt democratic socialism, but that exploited and disenfranchised workers around the world could elect authoritarian leaders in a misguided attempt to thwart their oppression, which could lead to WWIII.
So price gouging doesn't come just from monopoly, but from the wealthy elites created by those monopolies who effectively control our government now. They're the conspiracy. They could use their wealth to alleviate human suffering, but they're still asleep. In other words, there's nobody at the wheel advocating for progressive change who has the means to actually enact it. Only outreach and organizing can do that. The fate of the world quite literally depends on it.
Anyway, I'm well outside my wheelhouse here, and we're below the fold so nobody will probably ever read this anyway. But I hope this clears up my position. I have no terse way to defend it, because the evidence is vast and suppressed by the mainstream media and wealthy elites who don't benefit from a reduction in wealth inequality.
Edit: I re-read your original comment, and maybe we both agree that it would have been more effective to just give everyone the $40,000 directly? Just like during the housing bubble popping in 2008, when people needed a few thousand dollars to make their mortgage payments, but the government gave the money to the banks instead, which prolonged the recession. To not print the money is not a viable option IMHO, for the reasons I stated above.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_trade-to-...
This is important as it really underscores what a small part trade is to our economy compared to other nations. America's manufacturing output is still at record levels despite less people working in manufacturing. That is part of why our GDP is so high, the productivity of a single person is constantly increasing with technology.
I also disagree the 'elites can use their wealth to alleviate human suffering'. The elites, billionaires, etc.. do not have enough money between them to pay for better hospitals, schools, fair laws, etc.. They also don't have the ability to control prices as they're constantly competing with each other. They are a lot less powerful than you think.
The changes happening in society are more often than not capitalism itself balancing limited resources the best it can. Society is massively complex, way out of scope for any single human to understand or control. The fed and legislature printing money disrupts that self regulating process.
What triggers me about this stuff is power imbalance. After I got out of school, I moved furniture for 3 years in the early 2000s around the time of the Dot Bomb, 9/11 and wars in the Middle East. I worked harder physically than some people do over a lifetime. But I had no money. Then I had a job repairing computers for 3 years during the housing bubble pop. I repaired up to 3-8 computers per day, 6 days per week sometimes, and I had no money. I've had countless software projects fail to generate income, and again, I had no money.
Meanwhile I watched my employers throw around vast sums. It costs more to fill a semi truck with fuel than to pay lumpers to load and unload it all day. Heating a warehouse costs a small fortune. My bosses bought the strip mall we worked in while we were coming up short in pay $100 every month. I experienced the endless insults inflicted on labor firsthand.
It wasn't until I was exposed to New Age philosophy in the late 2010s and the pandemic that I started getting over myself. I realize now that my struggles were something that I chose to take on for their experience in this life. I let others dictate my time and didn't communicate my needs or set boundaries, and learned the hard way how personal growth works.
What I'm getting at is that we all let the wealthy be wealthy at our pleasure. We could turn the tables at any time, but we don't. Why is that?
So what I mean about elites alleviating suffering, is that they could do it without doing anything at all, simply through messaging and culture and doing the shadow work to understand why they hoard wealth to such a degree. They could steer us away from subjugation and exploitation towards egalitarianism and self-actualization. But they're ok with skimming 3/4 of productivity from their workers. And it's not even always their fault, because that's just how business works under capitalism. They're every bit as trapped as we are, if we look at metrics like leisure time. In fact, they may be even more trapped, because their material comfort blinds them to the plight of others. Which touches on the religious aspect of all of this, how for whatever reason humans tend to put themselves in The Matrix to live up to external expectation. That's a lot to unpack, so I'll leave it at that.
Good point about trade, I agree that something has always bothered me about people harping on about the trade deficit. Probably what's going on is that we don't have an economic measure for stability. Countries love to do business with the US because it's reliable. They make the products and get paid, so it may be worth doing even at a loss. We forget how difficult it is for them to make money locally. But in fairness, we also forget how our lack of fair trade policies impacts their ability to do business. Again, it evolves.
The fed bothers me too, for what it's worth. I don't think it's right that some people are able to print money arbitrarily, while others are stuck in zero-sum games. Like, why should banks get bailed out while we all have to go bankrupt? That's fundamentally discrimination against the poor, performed under the guise of protecting the poor from economic downturns. We can't stop the banks, and maybe they won't let us have UBI, but maybe we could vote for the government to provide low-interest loans of perhaps $10,000 to create competition. Or maybe that would create its own problems, I don't know. But access to capital is literally the single most important thing under capitalism, and that's being denied to millions of hardworking people in our society right now for.. reasons.
Anyway, I have no real argument to make here. It's been good chatting, and thanks for not jumping all over me about some technicality I overlooked! I like to think of this stuff as breadcrumbs for further thought, not solutions wrapped in a bow.
She buys a 60 pack of eggs real regularly. It was $13 in November, it's $18 now. The same pack is $30 is California at the moment.
Check it out. Go to this link and change your zip code. See what happens to the price.
https://www.walmart.com/search?q=eggs%2060%20count&typeahead...
it's not because of putin, the prices rocketed already way before. its...
Guessing part of the concern is that lower income folks might have historically substituted eggs for meat when money was tight.
That said, meat is also one of the cheapest foods you can buy in many cases, usually quite a bit cheaper than fresh fruits and vegetable.
However, eggs are of course used in the preparation of a lot of other products that are regularly consumed (pasta, baked goods,...). Thus an increase in the price of eggs alone would have an effect on the price of those products too, but with eggs being only one of a number of ingredients, that would still be a moderate increase.
The raise in prices you see is across the board is due to _everything_ having become more expensive, not just an after-effect from pricier eggs.
A couple months ago I noticed they were $5.50 and they've gone higher. 4 pack of butter has been $5.99 as well.
I've put off getting chickens because eggs have been so cheap, but it's probably something I'll be doing soon.
* https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/9bc4caf3-c1b0-4a79-9196-4de1f...
Some countries more, some less.
I think right around 4 years ago, maybe just before (52 months), I could get a dozen at ALDI for $0.69-0.79 at times. Though I bet if I went to ALDI today it wouldn’t be less than $4.
Inflation certainly hasn’t helped, and then with the 50 million plus birds culled, the difference has been stark. Takes time to recoup that stock of hens, assuming some of the smaller farms that were suppliers didn’t go belly up in the aftermath.
https://www.trolley.co.uk/grocery-price-index/category/?id=1...
Edit: The takeaway is answering the post I'm replying to as to why anyone can't just start selling eggs.
Edit edit: Child's axe-grinding notwithstanding, I really am just pointing out that USDA regulations are why the average person can't just start selling eggs. That's merely a descriptive statement, and in no way implies "all regulations are bad," which is, frankly, a level of discourse posters here should aim higher than.
Also, Unregulated eggs are not a solution.
What is the takeaway from your comment, it’s unclear.
Edit: OP replied to this comment as an edit to their original, that makes it very awkward to actually respond to their reply. The reply also didn’t address the points because it amounted to saying “the take away is that I replied to someone”.
That comment appears to be an “all regulations are by definition bad!” viewpoint. Please explain What usda regulation caused the shortage? Was it new? If not, why did it not cause the shortage previously. Those clarifying details should be easy to provide presuming it wasn’t a knee jerk comment.
You have to hire a lawer who follows these things, interprets them. Then you have to craft new changes in the way you do things (no matter what things you do or how) to adapt, and you have to also signal that so you won't get audited/inspected (which is a huge cost in time & resources even if there are 0 violations).
And that's before the cost of the actual regulation.
a reactionary “all regulation bad” view is too simplistic and doesn’t make for good discourses.
but what do I know, I must be biased because I’m not a fan of asbestos.
What is the purpose of those comments?
We saw the same thing in early LAN engineering when Ethernet fought it out with Token Ring. Oversimplifying a bit: Token Ring provided a highly regulated guaranteed delivery protocol with lots of complexity and overhead and Ethernet just spurted packets out onto the wire and let the nodes figure out collisions. Can you guess which one is considerably more performant and easier to implement? Even so, Ethernet still has plenty of rules and complexity, just considerably less than Token Ring.
Sure let's go with that :)
I'd summarize it like so: while it is theoretically possible fore regulation to be net-positive, it is vastly net-negative on average and especially cumulative. And we aren't able or willing to figure out which ones are positive/negative beforehand, so zero new regulation would be the optimal strategy.
Plus, we need to hold all other variables equal, so we can be sure what the causation is. And best of all we should use the gold standard, randomized controlled trials. With this method, some states/countries get randomly selected to implement a policy, but they don't even know about it, and to make it double blind, we also don't know about it until after the trial.
Anything less is unscientific, frankly.
Thanks for the negging, makes for intelligent comments just like posting one line regan slogans for “humor”
Don't be so condescending and you might notice that commenters here are quite a bit above that level.
Since you mention, "Yes" could be a nuclear tier rhetorical slogan. "What do you stand for?" "Yes!" Who can't get behind that positive can do attitude!? I don't know what a regan is, but I'm happy to help him, her, or it out at my standard consulting rate.
Actually, even then, you'll have a problem - not from the USDA, but from your local zoning board/HOA/anybody in the government your neighbors can get in touch with.
Of course you know the joke about two economists walking through a busy train station. One points out a $20 bill on the ground, the other says it's obviously fake, because if it wasn't someone would have picked it up already
In that time we could very well go from scarcity to glut with current producers as bird flu works itself out and they regain capacity. And it’s not like you wouldn’t be subject to your flock(?) of chickens getting the disease.
That’s not too say there isn’t opportunity here (there might be) or that people aren’t reacting to it (my brother in law just repopulated his home coop), but in general agriculture is a highly competitive business with low margin’s and “obvious” profit opportunities are riskier than they appear.
possible the infrastructure won't be complete before prices go down. possible that prices will go down before you recoup the costs.
On the other hand, depending where you live and local rules, it is easy to have a few layer chickens for eggs. Having 4 or 5 chickens can mean 3 eggs a day which can keep you supplied. Costs would be a coop, food, water, and chicks. Layer feed where I live is 18 bucks for 50 lbs which can last for quite a while with that small number of chickens.
At least compared to how much we think we know.
Doesn't have to be much if a value add. Just something.
Fed claims on flour prices: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000701111
Are you used to it yet?
Companies see the federal line that we're in an inflationary environment and raise prices re-actively.
Insulated, heated, lighting... they seem to be quite happy and the eggs are delicious.
You're of course welcome to your position, but it's going to drown in this sea that is mostly about the cost. Also, there are many options for both eggs and meat that are absolutely not torture, so you've kind of put yourself at odds right out of the gate.