Comment by delta_p_delta_x | Hacker News Reader

Comment by delta_p_delta_x | Hacker News Reader

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delta_p_delta_x

> It was supposed to be a SV darling to do it first, not some legacy German carmaker.

I feel quite vindicated by this, because I've always been (perhaps irrationally) rather suspicious of Tesla. Software company suddenly decides to make 'luxury cars'? Cool story bro.

My opinion is that the German triad (BMW, VW (and subsidiaries, including Porsche), Merc-Benz) may have lost some ground to Tesla when it comes to EVs and self-driving cars, but they have an immense mind- and market-share and will quickly recover lost ground. They have a pretty good engineering-first mentality, too.

Plus, they have always built generally good cars (late 1990s-early 2000s unreliability notwithstanding).

In fact, this is not surprising at all. Audi claimed in 2017 that its A8 was capable of Level 3 self-driving[1], but the system was subsequently downgraded. In the intervening years, the Germans' research into self-driving cars has drastically expanded.

[1]: https://www.audi-mediacenter.com/en/on-autopilot-into-the-fu...

> My opinion is that the German triad (BMW, VW (and subsidiaries, including Porsche), Merc-Benz) may have lost some ground to Tesla when it comes to EVs and self-driving cars, but they have an immense mind- and market-share and will quickly recover lost ground. They have a pretty good engineering-first mentality, too.

Americans, SV and HN especially, are also oblivious to this.

The current VW CEO was just sent packing.

Why?

Software quality.

They know it's do or die and the level of investment into it is huge, they've been hiring software devs like crazy, in Germany.

When was Tesla ever a software company?

Exactly. More like they are selling vaporware. I paid $7500 for the self driving mode _a full year ago_ and it I definitely don't expect it to ever work now. They clearly sold customers something they didn't have.

If you are a Tesla AP owner, I have a question for you that has been bothering me for a while. Would you demand a complete refund if Tesla announced a Level-3-ish model with LiDAR? Because for a while I have been wondering if that's why they are so keen on camera-only self driving.

When Tesla's sky-high P/E was predicated on software supremacy. I was informed self-driving robotaxis would be a multi-billion dollar industry that Tesla and Uber would dominate, destroying legacy automakers in the process. This was back when Uber had a self-driving program, it's been downhill since. TO answer your question more concretely: I'd say since 8-10 years ago.

I mean, maybe?

But, like, that's after they were making EVs. The roadster was announced in 2006, and started production in 2008 - 15 years ago.

They went from making EVs, which are cars with some software inherently in them, to making different cars with even more software in them. They're a car company first, who have been increasing the amount of software they've written to put in their cars.

The comment I was replying to was suggesting they were a software company first, which then pivoted to making cars. Which is... just... what?!?

Yes, you technically answered my question, so thanks for taking the time and making the effort and whatever, but just not in a way that is actually helpful in the context that I asked it.

I suspect there's a semantic collision on the meaning of first: it can refer to temporal ordering (occured before other events), first can also also refer to primacy/importance (which was my reading. i.e. to be read as "Tesla is fundamentally a software company which happens to sell cars." A take I never agreed with, but was the basis of the overvaluation.)

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