Hacker News Reader

Comment by rurp | Hacker News Reader

A few years ago crypto often had large jumps from deals like these, not so much because of the immediate affect but more because it implied much larger growth was on the horizon. That seemed reasonable at the time, and the reverse seems reasonable now.

If large financial institutions don't want to touch crypto, that severly limits the foreseeable upside for the industry.

View on HN

Interest in crypto comes in cycles, and with each new cycle there are more incumbents that want to get involved. This bear market may have been particularly worrying for the industry, but I'm confident that in 5-10 years from now large financial institutions will again want to incorporate crypto. The networks behind these currencies are too resilient and the upside is too high to avoid.

Why 5-10 years? Hype cycle, or do you think there will be changes in the tech that could make it useful to these institutions at that point?

Both. There are ongoing developments in Decentralized Finance and Identity Networks on Ethereum that are reinventing more parts of the current financial system, as well as the shift to proof-of-stake that is making Ethereum more scalable and efficient.

I focus on Ethereum just because it's the center of innovation in crypto nowadays. Bitcoin has only incrementally changed its software throughout the years and only gains more use as a store-of-value as demand for it increases (hype cycle). After a bull market run it generally takes 5-10 years to reach its peak again.

> After a bull market run it generally takes 5-10 years to reach its peak again.

Bitcoin has only existed for 14 years—seems a bit early to generalize anything based on the two times it has peaked and crashed so far.

There's been more than two peaks and troughs, I would disagree with the numbers presented

You're right, my generalization is too early. It is based on crypto's correlation with the overall stock market since it is seen as an investment, which has always returned positive over a 15 year period. But this is more speculation than anything else.

Ethereum is not decentralized. Decentralization is the most important thing in a blockchain. The sooner everyone realizes that, the sooner we can start building momentum on the chains that are viable.

Bitcoin is not decentralised, a couple of pools account for the majority of hashpower.

What is your definition of decentralization? What is it based on?

Based on what?

On almost every dimension Ethereum looks like the most decentralized network out there: Most nodes, most validators, most distribution of validators, most clients, most development teams, ease of making your own block.

Because 5-10 years is a long enough period for another generation of youthful greater fools to enter the market who weren't old enough to have been burned by the previous cycle.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com