> We can expect it to get to 90% soon

I won't be surprised, but that's less than "can expect", and I disagree that this is straightforward to forecast… unless you're currently playing with another similar model that hasn't been published and which can do this. As the saying goes, "forecasting is hard, especially if it's about the future".

AI progress has always been this weird combination of two sides, one saying for every breakthrough "this is just around the corner", the other saying "this is impossible".

This even happens anachronistically, with some people convinced AI can already do things they can't, and others that they could never do things they already do.