The Aral Sea has shrunk because of the re-routing of its source rivers (2022)

Indeed. Here’s a discussion from yesterday for those who may have missed it:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34276519

And it's sad, because it can all be averted. A modern day Dust Bowl.

It's not the first time this has happened in the United States:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Owens_Lake

While as far as I can tell the Great Salt Lake's level is presently severely low due to human actions, reconstructions of the historic level of the lake from tree ring analysis shows that the lake's natural level fluctuates substantially even when humans aren't doing anything to it. So even if water diversions stopped, the GSL area would still have a long-term problem on their hands. The toxic lake bed will get exposed one way or the other, if not through the actions of men then through natural fluctuations. Given that the lakebed is already contaminated and there's no way to fix that, the best solution is to live someplace else.

> For example, the driest (wettest) year on record, 1581 (1464) occurred many centuries ago and was substantially larger in magnitude than the historical record. At lower frequencies, the GSL lake-level reconstruction revealed large, multi-year reductions in lake levels from 1580–1600, in the 1630s, and from 1700–1710 that in each case were at least as severe as the known lake-level minima during the drought of the 1930s and 2000–2001 (Figure 3).

https://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/pubs/46447

Incidentally, the "many centuries ago" framing is revealing of a general attitude I've noticed from Americans, particularly Americans living in the western half of the country. They think "several centuries" is essentially an eternity because in their region, several centuries ago is before recorded history. And in a sense, for an individual human planning their life, several centuries may as well be an eternity. But for city planning, an environmental problem that's likely to be disastrous for the city every few hundred years should be considered a severe threat. That sort of circumstance makes for a city that won't survive the test of time.

Another example of this sort of short-term thinking is water levels in California. According to tree stump analysis, California has been unusually wet since America acquired the land; this luck will not last. California had, and will have again, droughts which are far more severe than any Californian drought in living memory. Californian communities should be planning to deal with such severe droughts, but many Californians seem to prefer believing that they can somehow stabilize the Californian climate to always be the way it was when they were kids.

That’s terrible.

Is the primary reason overconsumption from farming (70% of the consumption according to Yahoo News)? If so then I guess they could import more agricultural products. That’s easier than having most of the residents use less water.

But another problem might be: where would the food come from? California also has a drought problem. I don’t know.

I’ve been to a few of said towns - Aralsk is the most notable.

It’s a forsaken place. Never mind the port machinery swinging idly in the hot, dusty breeze, suspended over toxic sludge where a sea once lapped its shores - the human disaster there is palpable. There’s no industry, no work, no future. People sit, and wait. The North Korean friendship centre hands out packages of household supplies on a dusty square full of dead trees. The place is half abandoned, and the people who remain - well, they’re abandoned too.

It’s hard to describe the heaviness that sat over the place - it’s oppressive, a feeling of inexorable doom.

It’s unlikely these places will exist in the not too distant future. They existed on the brink, and the brink is long gone, and they are in freefall.

Apparently the great salt lake is also a huge magnesium source. There's a company called US Magnesium that takes salt water and routes it into a bunch of evaporation ponds.

Actually, the Russian textile industry needed cotton, they were a major customer of US cotton, then they saw an opportunity to grow cotton in Turkestan. So they started growing cotton there. Even after the 1917 revolution, Turkestan remained a major cotton producer, and population growth, increasing demand for cotton, the ruthless Soviet central planning dried the lake. That YouTube clip might have a point about water leaks, but even with 100% efficiency they would dry up the lake anyway, the inertia to grow cotton was too strong.

You mean already happened. The wetlands have receded hundreds of miles up to The Delta, and Lake Tulare has been gone for a century.

It is perfectly clear. We're talking of an almost full disappearance in forty years, not mere fluctuations over centuries.

One can always find the devils advocate.