Comment by roenxi | Hacker News Reader

Comment by roenxi | Hacker News Reader

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1. Seems like you're not going to contest the idea that we're running out of oil.

2. Just a few hours ago you referenced a link [0] showing that China has electricity prices sitting at half the US's. India too.

The US has lost access to a cheap form of energy and is likely going to be forced to rely on electricity going forward. I put it to you that it is by no means certain that the US market is going to be in a position where it can sustain even relative out-performance, let alone objectively good performance in line with historic figures. Depending on how optimistic we are about the communists continuing to adopt sane policies, it may even be unlikely based on the current trends.

Fortunately those trends will likely change as the squeeze the US is going through right now gets more pronounced. But the conditions we see now are simply not the conditions of the past 60 years, putting strategies based on the last ~150 years of data into a suspect light.

> America hasn’t run out of cheap oil ... all while the economy uses less oil, year after year

So cheap you can't afford to use it? I don't want to be exposed to your version of cheap.

[0] https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/China/electricity_prices/

> you're not going to contest the idea that we're running out of oil

Why would I? Everyone knows this. It’s just not a catastrophe for America.

> few hours ago you referenced a link [0] showing that China has electricity prices sitting at half the US's. India too

How did you misread “China pays more for power than American industry” as China pays less?! Look at the national price for business in China. Now look at our states’ industrial prices. Lots of variation, because e.g. New York has different policy preferences than Texas.

> US has lost access to a cheap form of energy and is likely going to be forced to rely on electricity going forward. I put it to you that it is by no means certain that the US market is going to be in a position where it can sustain even relative out-performance

This is a real argument. Thank you.

I agree it’s uncertain. The point, however, is that this won’t happen to America in a vacuum. And as it happens, it hurts others worse and first. I’d also challenge the assumption that we’re out of cheap energy [1], but that’s a separate discussion. My point is that in a world running out of oil, nobody is better positioned than America, with its domestic reserves, co-located industry and cheap electricity.

> cheap you can't afford to use it

You really can’t think of another reason we won’t use our fossil fuels?

Hint: it’s the same reason Chinese and Indian power prices are anomalously close to America’s.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_sourc...

Are you sure you posted the right link? I didn't realise there was a toggle between household and business prices and the business gap isn't as large; but even then for me it says China 0.092 and US 0.136 of electricity, so power in the US is ~50% more expensive than them (and ~36% more expensive than India).

I don't see individual states.

> You really can’t think of another reason we won’t use our fossil fuels?

The price rockets upwards and people start using less of the stuff. There are a lot of possible explanations beyond that, but it is safe to assume the obvious one that is most likely.

I'm sure you already know about https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox but I'll link to it anyway.

The second link [1]. 8.61¢ per kWh, national average for industry. Lower in the energy states.

> price rockets upwards

Again, where is this happening? I’ve provided numerous data points refuting this faulty hypothesis, yet you keep circling back to it.

Across the West, fossil fuels are being shifted away from for environmental reasons. India and China burn coal. That’s why Indian and Chinese power prices are even in America’s ballpark. Surprisingly, we’re finding some of the new generation methods, e.g. wind but increasingly also solar, to be even cheaper than coal and oil.

[1] https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/end-use.php

That isn't a fair comparison though; China will also have a big spread of prices between their provinces. And it would seem from the other link you posted that average Chinese business has much better access to electricity than the average US one. India too.

> isn't a fair comparison though; China will also have a big spread of prices between their provinces

Then use the national figures. Still cheaper.

And China won’t, not for oil. Oil is cheap in Texas because it’s pumped in Texas. China’s closest analogs are Russian pipeline terminals and seaports. The former, in aggregate, is less than a third of Texas aline’s oil production. The latter vulnerable. (Chinese electricity is cheaper in its mining provinces.)

> seem from the other link you posted that average Chinese business has much better access to electricity than the average US one. India too.

America is ridiculously more electrified than either country, so “better access” is the wrong phrase. I think you mean cheaper?

Short answer, mostly no. New York City adds power tariffs because they don’t want power-intensive industry in the city. If you’re doing energy-intensive work, you go upstate, where the tariffs are intentionally cheaper.

Will a shop in San Francisco pay more for power than one in Delhi? Sure. But now the energy intensity comes back to bite, because that shop in San Francisco is doing a better job turning energy into production. That means the fraction of income going towards power is smaller.

In any case, those are policies voters chose to impose on themselves. They could any day choose to prioritise cheaper power over environmental concerns and pay what Wyoming does. We’re comparing retail prices, after all, not generation costs.

You've given me two links [0] that show on average the US has notably more expensive electricity than China, and one link [1] that shows there is a lot of intra-country variance in the US which isn't really evidence because there will also be large intra-country variance in China.

How are you getting from that to "China pays more for power than American industry"? Could you do a summary in one place? Your links seems to support the opposite conclusion but maybe you've got something going on across a few comments that I've missed.

I also went to look at the absolute numbers out of interest and China produces 8 PWh total and the US 4 PWh total according to [2] and playing around with the "Electricity production by source" graph. Although obviously that means per-capita the US is still a way ahead.

[0] https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/China/electricity_prices/ & https://www.statista.com/statistics/263492/electricity-price...

[1] https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/end-use.php

[2] https://ourworldindata.org/energy#country-profiles

> two links [0] that show on average the US has notably more expensive electricity than China

The median American pays more for everything than the median Chinese. Including power. For electricity, particularly for households, the difference is largely taxes.

The median kWh purchased in America, however, is bought for less than it is in China because power-hungry industry happens where it is cheap. This cost difference is partly because China underproduces energy by a third [1]. It’s partly because we make power more cheaply [2]. The first gives us security. The second economic advantage. (It’s also why ditching coal and oil is easier for America than it currently is for China.)

Also, fun fact: electricity is getting cheaper in America, and has been for at least forty years [3]. (Those are household figures. No ready source for industry, but same tale, you can deflate historic prices using the PPI.)

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_p...

[2] https://www.iea.org/reports/projected-costs-of-generating-el...

[3] https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/electricity-...

Well, I appreciate your dedication to responding after I kicked off this thread. Given the first response I didn’t feel it was worth the time to continue engaging, but you hit pretty much every point I would have.

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