Yes Foursquare is in trouble much the same way Gowalla was.

Fortunately for Foursquare, they have a much larger audience. A very calculated-yet-subtle pivot could put Foursquare over the top into a category with Google, Facebook and Twitter.

That slight pivot will be a make or break for 4sq though. Gowalla went way off in the wrong direction with their pivot, regardless that they probably would've been acquired anyways.

I do not envy anyone sitting in on the meetings to design 4sq's next step. Then again the high risks involved might give them motivation.

That said, I do know the direction 4sq needs to go.