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Comment by sschueller | Hacker News Reader

Adding another nail to the coffin claiming Russia blew up their own pipeline.

At some point we have to face reality that it was the west and most likely the UK and US in a joint operation as the no one else has such capabilities.

Once we accept that we need to ask ourselves (as Europeans) who is really on our side and who has OUR best interests in mind.

I don't blame the US for taking advantage of a crisis but we need to stop being so gulable to believe they won't as they have time and time again.

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> Adding another nail to the coffin claiming Russia blew up their own pipeline.

Or not. Blowing up NS1 to pressure Germany to allow NS2 to open wouldn't be inconceivable, while also pushing up the price of gas through other pipelines. It's risky and stupid, but that also describes most of what Russia's been doing the last 9 months.

But it doesn’t make any sense. Like, at all.

Implicit in the threat of “do what we say, or we turn the gas off” is “and we’ll let you keep the gas if you do”. Russia’s threats become completely empty and meaningless if the blackmailees know that the blackmailer can’t turn the gas back on.

The game theory becomes totally boring when both outcomes are “Europe doesn’t have gas”. The obvious strategy becomes “just support Ukraine because there is no penalty for doing so”. Which is the opposite of what Russia wants.

It also forces Europe to find other gas sources… after which, any future attempt to use gas for blackmail is less effective. Again, opposite of Russia’s interests.

Putin may be stupid, but he’s not that stupid.

> Russia’s threats become completely empty and meaningless if the blackmailees know that the blackmailer can’t turn the gas back on.

Empty threats are Russia's MO and have been for literal decades now. They've threatened Europe with nukes so many times that it doesn't even make the news anymore when it happens. Also, NS1 was not the only operational pipeline and it would have been a massive win for Russia if Germany had flipped their decision on NS2 to ensure their own gas supply. And clearly if they're working on NS1 now, it wasn't damaged beyond repair.

> Putin may be stupid, but he’s not that stupid.

I don't know, it sure looks like it. Most of his recent actions seem to be best explained as short-term fixes to a massive strategic blunder. It's only human to try to read into things and assume there must be some greater plan to his moves.

> Empty threats are Russia's MO and have been for literal decades now. They've threatened Europe with nukes so many times that it doesn't even make the news anymore when it happens.

And would those threats be more or less credible if Russia unilaterally destroyed all their own nukes (and proved that they had done so)?

> Most of his recent actions seem to be best explained as short-term fixes to a massive strategic blunder.

Uh huh. And how does this help him, exactly? Putin must be the dumbest person to ever play eleventy-seven degree chess with such skill.

The threat in blowing up NS isn't “do what we want or we don't turn our gas back on”, its “do what we want or we blow up Baltic Pipe”.

> It also forces Europe to find other gas sources…

That was forced a while ago, the threat here is against those other sources.

What capabilities were required to place an explosive on the pipeline at that depth in the Black Sea?

It's been reported that the pipeline is encased in concrette which had to be removed before placing the explosives. Additionally several ships with proper diving gear and crew had to go there and stay undetected.

That is not true. Seismic monitoring show that the explosions were equivalent to several hundred kilograms of explosives. With that much explosives there was no need to remove the concrete. The "concrete removing CIA robots" narrative is only pushed by Russian propaganda accounts.

Where do you get that amount of explosives that can be used under water and not be questioned at time of purchase?

I didn't read about robots but divers that had to jackhammer under water.

We are talking about nation states, it's a silly question. Neither Russia, USA or any other state has a problem "buying" the explosives. They don't shop in the fertilizer section at your local hardware store.

It's in the Baltic.

Truth, that is what I meant. The Baltic Sea is generally not that deep was the point. It does not require advanced marine navigation or diving equipment to reach the pipeline

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