Apartment rent growth set to keep slowing this year
wsj.com
wsj.com
> Now, many of those same places that shot up in price are seeing slides in demand and rents are going down. Between April and October of 2022, rents fell 3% in Las Vegas, 2% in Phoenix and 1% in Tampa.
I sure haven't seen that 1% drop. If that's a true figure, I'd wager its the luxury unit companies slightly lowering.
I also can't imagine how people can rate it the best place to live, given the complete lack of public transit and awful road infrastructure.
What this thread really makes me think is that I need to look into moving back to Seattle.. if Seattle is still half the price of the Bay and only a short flight away, maybe I can find a decent job without too much of a pay cut, haha.
It's not.
> maybe I can find a decent job without too much of a pay cut
You can. I have two friends who started at new jobs in Seattle in the first half of 2022. Both are making over $500k.
I'm at a bit of a disadvantage since I only work on C/C++ OS/driver stuff, so there aren't as many openings around for me.. Maybe I should pivot to something a little higher up the stack
If you have any interest in securities trading, you can definitely make top dollar with those skills.
[EDIT] I mean I guess the other possibility was that it was never true. I've been briefly a couple times and the city seemed pretty unremarkable, either way, but I wasn't there long and only saw a small part of it.
Finally, Jacksonville's time to shine.
Of course thanks to the "Florida man" law the whole state gets a fair amount of negative attention.
The lack of cold weather, and no state income tax goes a long way.
If that's your position, I wouldn't call it reasonable. Central Florida is paradise. As they say, if you can't take the heat...
That said, I'm not super heat-tolerant, and definitely prefer the cold! I also like walking a lot more than driving, so spent a lot more time walking around than the average Tampan, I guess? (Though maybe not anymore now that downtown's been revived!)
I've been wanting to move out of this state for years now, but it feels like everywhere else that's comparable in the US is just as expensive if not more.
It's a huge pain for my SO and I
I personally moved from a tier-1 major metropolitan area to a tier-3 small city, because I found that I stopped caring for the "big city amenities" that made living in the former worth it despite all the pains in the ass. I'm quite happy with my choice.
We looked at a small town in AZ (~40,000 people, iirc) that was beautiful and affordable, but unfortunately it didn't seem like she'd have many job opportunities in that area unless she's able to get a remote role or she wanted to drive to Phoenix or Flagstaff every day.
Prior to June these houses would sell in a day .. starting in October I started seeing these type of home sellers not have the same opportunity those who sold earlier in the year and they started to drop their prices after two to four weeks on the market. Once they drop their prices the house sold in a few days or more.
The nice homes (newer then 2005) with in-ground pools in this area if priced at 350k to 450k (in maryland i prefer PA though taxes are higher) will still go pretty fast.
Overall the market in this area has changed where it's not a sellers market as much as it was prior to June. But overall there really isnt much inventory of said homes (homes that you can buy that are nice enough to flip in a few years or so for a profit) and I think that's indicative of the entire housing market.
For home buyers who are not looking to flip, this isn't as much of an issue. You have to live somewhere. For renters, they'll likely need to move to see the lower rate, since if you're already paying a large amount successfully the landlord isn't likely to lower _your_ rent.
That said, there are certainly people who live with family or take on roommates that otherwise would prefer to live independently due to high rents. So it is an issue. But rents declining a bit, or even a lot, wouldn't put a dent in homelessness.
https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2018/12/14/18131047/homelessne...
Interviews of homeless people, at least in some West Coast cities, indicate that drug addiction is perhaps the single biggest contributor to homelessness.
The supply of housing needs to drastically increase in housing-constrained places that suffer from homelessness. That means fewer zoning regulations, fewer environmental regulations, stronger rights of property owners to develop and sell or rent their property for what the market will bear, allowing "poorer" housing (like the boarding houses that Yglesias's article discusses), and so on and so forth. But you also need to convince the public that the people they see strung up on the street can be good neighbors; otherwise none of that policy change would happen. So we must also address drug addiction.
(Honest question).
Remote work will hurt your career (https://www.wsj.com/articles/think-working-from-home-wont-hu...)
"Productivity theater" and employees cheating (https://www.wsj.com/articles/your-boss-still-thinks-youre-fa...)
Remote work means American jobs will be outsourced to cheaper countries (https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/tech-news-briefing/tech-industr...)
It's hard to make a point with a handful of links, but if you read it regularly then the bias is pretty clear.
https://www.propublica.org/article/yieldstar-rent-increase-r...
Also - setting rent in a given market is a game that the same landlords play with each other, annually. Strategy is different in multi-round games.
And - back in the 1990's, I knew a few residential landlords in a mid-sized college town. They clearly said that they got together annually, and decided how much to increase their rents.
Not good, certainly, but absolutely in no way driving the current rental crisis.
Would love to learn more about this software.
I've looked at homes that have been available for Rent for over 4-6 months and they are refusing to negotiate or lower rents. They could have already been halfway through a year long lease on places and they are refusing to rent in order to get an extra few hundred a month in rent and drive up the market.
People are packing up and going elsewhere. New buildings are being built like mad all around us, and I don't know where they expect these people to come from that will pay their high prices. The smaller property management companies are dropping prices like crazy to get vacancies filled, but the large ones are holding strong with high rents. They have probably been banking absurd rents for the past two years and can afford to sit on these homes long enough now if they can keep getting high rents. But jokes on them, inventory is getting too high.
My rent went up 30% in 2021, and went up another 10% last year. They are now asking for another 5% increase this year. I make good money, but I am effectively paying 50% more money for a home thats half the size of what I used to have. I can work anywhere in the country, so I'm not playing this game and I think many others are in the same boat.
Meanwhile, I rented a much larger, nicer place for much cheaper from a local human being who values me as a customer.
> “In 2021 and into early 2022 you could raise rents significantly without doing a lot to the property itself,” said Karlin Conklin, principal of apartment landlord Investors Management Group, which owns buildings in the Sunbelt and on the West Coast. “We don’t see that happening going forward.”
Gotta spend money to make money. Time to lift themselves up by their bootstraps.
Back in my day, landlords weren't lazy. That sounds like a problem these days.
scumbags
The vacancy rate for the full US is about 6%. Things are going in the right direction at least. But for some US cities, like Seattle, Portland, and Minneapolis, we're still a long ways away from reasonable.
That's not natural. That's just holding landlord profits constant.
Including ideas that are probably-illegal but could see mass consumer adoption before they could be stopped (like Uber)?
You mean near where people want to live or want to work? We have plenty of housing, just not in the boom towns that are growing rapidly.
I walked through Asuncion, Paraguay. People just build shacks and steal power from the lines. It's not the safest or most sanitary but it does the trick.
Many locales don't require building permits for mobile structures (like cars and trailers).
I've wondered if someone could buy some parking lots and just park nice mobile homes on them and rent them out. It'd be sneaky way of creating housing.
Houses really do depreciate with age, even if it is less noticeable in the USA than it is in say Japan.
New homes definitely have problems, but they are not going to have the same problems as older homes (e.g. burst pipes because they were never insulated properly).
I've never linked to Google Street View, but I'll try... https://goo.gl/maps/d6DvdC9gmhumQRB17
Of if you look up "860 Betty Meltzer Memorial Hwy, Palo Alto, CA" you'll see what I mean.
Right now, people overconsume because they own the underlying property. If they had to pay cash rent for the same property, they would move. And if they didn't then various taxes would be due on that income. Instead they freeride and externalise the cost of the consumption.
Another alternative is a mass, semi local infrastructure program. One of the reason prices and rents are so high in some places is because there are a very limited number of places you can live and access the city centre within 1h. So we should build a tonne of light rail lines around these cities linking empty areas to them. This is how cities are meant to grow, but it requires government involvement beyond the US political model (investments that take more than 1 election cycle to pay off, reductions in property prices, municipal and rural (and state and federal) governments working together. The same is true here in the UK with London.
Sure. The government could build and subsidize housing.
When you talk about a "moonshot" idea, the Moon landing itself was subsidized with a massive amount of government funding. But it appears that we'd rather put a man on the Moon than take a man off the streets. It's just a matter of priorities.
What is this supposed to mean? Are the buildings empty? Or is it just a comment about the company you keep?
> Lawns were paved over to save on maintenance, failed lights were left for months, and apartments damaged by fire were simply boarded up instead of rehabilitated and reoccupied. Later phases of public housing development (such as the Green Homes, the newest of the Cabrini–Green buildings) were built on extremely tight budgets and suffered from maintenance problems due to the low quality of construction.
Housing the homeless is a much tougher problem than putting some people on the moon for a few days
Good thing I wasn't suggesting that.
There's a kind of self-defeating argument I see in some of the comments: since the minimal amount we've invested in public housing has resulted in some crappy housing, it's not worth investing more money in public housing.
That's an all too convenient way to avoid attempting any improvements. Can anyone sincerely and convincingly argue, "We've already tried our best, already made the maximum investment"?
If you want to block a nearby condo from being built, you have to go to the equivalent of Washington DC and beg your congressman for help. As you might imagine, they don't give a shit, so nothing gets blocked. End result is that you can work downtown as a janitor part time and afford to live in a nice apartment in the suburb 20 minutes away by train.
For example it takes months for an apartment to be re-occuppied. One month to clean and move. One month to find a new tenant. Jobs are no different. This is why businesses sometimes over hire and then do mass layoffs. If both adequately were fulfilled we wouldn't see any issues and apartments could opperate at a tenable rate which benefit both complex and tenant. However because the demand in the jobs would increase since no artificial un/availability will be made the pay will grow in the more in-demand roles not fulfilled.
When the jobs demand rises and the pay rises this cycle will start again. It is why businesses should try to retain talent so this process doesn't repeat and cause an economic collapse due to the rising cost of rent and living. Being tenable is important.
Apartments are always showing, and people have to give notice so the managers know what's coming availabile.
2 billion or so people were lifted from poverty the past 15 years, increasing consumption and driving global inflation. 15 years ago you were competing with less than 1/2 the number of people for, say, natural gas; and that was before Russia's gas exports were decimated by sanctions.
Many tried to warn of inflation when USGOV stimulus rained down on US citizens & small businesses. With the election looming, nobody listened.
Bottom-line... your elected leaders want to get reelected. They enact laws & policies that are inflationary because the body politic doesn't think long term, follow-on effects & is largely economically illiterate.
You get the economy you deserve, not the one you want.
Let the downvotes begin.
Apartment Rent Growth Set to Keep Slowing This Year
Not decrease—growth expected to slow.
Not quite the same vibe as "Apartment vacancies are piling up".
> The biggest wave of new rental buildings in nearly four decades is expected to cut the pace of rent growth across the country.
>Apartment vacancies are piling up. The biggest wave of new rental buildings in nearly four decades is expected to cut the pace of rent growth across the country.
> Now, many of those same places that shot up in price are seeing slides in demand and rents are going down. Between April and October of 2022, rents fell 3% in Las Vegas, 2% in Phoenix and 1% in Tampa, according to Apartment List. All three of those cities saw rents rise more than 30% during the preceding two years.
> nearly half a million new apartment units—the most of any year since 1986—are expected to complete construction by the end of 2023. That will come after more than 400,000 units were completed during 2022...The coming increase in new apartments is most likely to affect rents at higher-end buildings, because there might not be enough people who make enough money to rent them, according to CoStar.
> many housing economists don’t think job and wage growth will be strong enough to sustain much in the way of rent increases [in 2022]
tl;dr Prices are going down in many of the hottest markets in the country. Vacancies are starting to happen and are expected to increase, particularly in higher-end apartments going into 2023.
Now I also know a number of people that got burned very badly by Covid tenants that stopped paying and it took 16 months to evict them.
Some states passed their own laws but most did not last over a year, especially in southern states where renter protection tends to be weak.
Where would it take 16 months to evict a tenant for non-payment in the US?
http://hrcsf.org/rights-relief-during-covid19/
http://ebclc.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/2020.07.02-Berke...
That's two reasons why people are having trouble paying rent, and it sounds like those folks you know are responsible for one of them.
> "Apartment vacancies are piling up as a wave of new rental buildings are built, cutting the pace of rent growth across the country"
(I agree that some improvement is desirable.)
I think this would have had a harder time making the front page with the title the site guidelines suggest should have been used.