‘Extreme event’: warm January weather breaks records across Europe | Hacker News Reader

‘Extreme event’: warm January weather breaks records across Europe

theguardian.com

32 pointsmontalbano12 comments

Here in Belgium we had perfectly fine winter weather in the weeks leading up to Winter Solstice, but then it started turning and suddenly around year's end it was a record high for the time of year. It's quite welcome though, considering the energy crisis.

On Saturday: Noticed that outdoors was warmer than indoors and opened the windows to warm the house. In winter!

Two essential rules by which to judge this headline and story:

1. Never take seriously as an indicator of any massively complex trend or long-term tendency any headline from a single paper or small selection of media outlets whose express mission is to desperately seek attention and hype up drama from any possible thing, no matter how tenuously related to anything wider.

2. Do not assume that one specific regional weather trend of a certain brief time's duration is an actual indicator of something bigger and more complex, especially if other contrary trends are happening at the same time elsewhere. (human effects on climate change are real, but media and uninformed people pointing to any specific individual weather event as proof of them are little better than someone who doesn't believe there's human caused global warming using a single cold winter where they live as proof of their own contrary argument.)

"Temperatures in Vysokaje, Belarus, would normally hover around zero at this time of year. On Sunday they reached 16.4C, beating the country’s previous record January high by 4.5C.Temperatures in Vysokaje, Belarus, would normally hover around zero at this time of year. On Sunday they reached 16.4C, beating the country’s previous record January high by 4.5C."

It's surely somewhat unusual for a temperature record to be beaten by as much as 4.5C

So you.... argue against my points by doing exactly what my second point mentions? It's certainly possible that global warming and human-caused climate change are partly responsible for what you quote (I don't deny that both exist), but again, for the obtuse: pointing to a single unusual weather event as an argument for a vastly complex multi-century global trend is as absurd as when a person who doesn't believe in global warming being real argues their idea by pointing out that it snowed more than normal for a few days in their town.

It seems to be fine to throw shit at "deniers" (damn I hate that phrase, it gives a scientific subject that should be tacitly open for debate a wholly religious air that no technical subject ever deserves) for doing that but somehow any random warming anecdote or attention-grasping headline doing the same to argue for the dangers of climate change gets a free pass?

Meteorologists will tell you that temperature records are usually broken by fractions – tenths or hundreds – of a degree. To see records broken by multiple degrees, across an entire continent, is unusual.

Times article, for reference:

'Experts said the extreme heat was almost certainly linked to climate change. New highs for the month were registered across the continent, from the Czech Republic and Germany to Denmark and the Netherlands. Temperature records are usually broken by a few fractions of a degree, but Warsaw hit 18.9C, 5.1C above the previous high set in 1993. “The intensity and extent of warmth in Europe right now is hard to comprehend,” said Scott Duncan, a meteorologist. “There are too many records to count. Literally thousands. Overnight minimum temperatures are like summer.”'

The article goes on to mention similar records in Bilbao and across Germany, Switzerland and the Czech Republic. It continues:

'Alex Burkill, a meteorologist at the Met Office, said the Warsaw record was particularly striking. “It has taken the old record and increased it by more than 5C. That’s exceptional. It was exceptional in the UK in July when the record was broken by almost 2C. To do it by 5C is almost unheard of.”'

"media outlets whose express mission is to desperately seek attention and hype up drama " - While I agree that in general the media often does that, in this particular case, the story contains quotes from a number of scientists stating how extreme this is. Its truly frightening. If (well to be honest probably when) such an anomaly happens in the summer, we're looking at 45-50C in Europe, which would mean severe effects on human health and food supplies. Not sure what the Guardian is meant to do in this context? The truth really is shocking and dramatic is it not? Should the media downplay it? I heard a Guardian editor on the radio stating they now use the term "Climate Crisis", because it is indeed, a crisis, nothing less. Words like "change" or "warming" doesn't even begin to capture the scale of how bad this is.

And in the States with record setting winter storms? How The Guardian stays in business escapes me.

What’s your point exactly? I’m on the US East Coast and it’s rather unseasonably warm this week here as well, after a week of lower than usual temperatures for the end of December.

Do you put energy/electricity into a refrigerator or take it out in order to make it colder?

I live in Germany. It was 57F on January 1st, and has been similarly high in the days before and after. The Guardian may be a bad source of news, but it is insanely warm for this time of year.

The two are related, aren't they? Record cold in one place, record heat in another. Due to disturbed weather patterns that are deviating far from normal. Result - threat to life in many places. Possible future societal breakdown due to crop failures, famine, even affecting Western countries (including spread of nasty diseases previously limited to hot countries). Likely to get far worse over time, unless we find some silver bullet technology for sucking pre-emitted CO2 out of the air. Thank goodness the likes of the Guardian are reporting this, when so many people are in denial.

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