For U.S. companies, the race for the new EV battery is on
e360.yale.edu
e360.yale.edu
The liquid stuff might be a pipe dream, but I think the goal should be for electric cars to have a 'instant' fill up option shortly. Having a network of such stations greatly aleviates issues of trying to squeeze every last watt hour out of every battery and lets range anxiety be less important. I dont really care as much if my car only gets 200 miles range if I can fill up in 2 minutes at any existing gas station.
Filling up of course can mean anything from the liquid fuel meme idea above to a fast battery-swap to some megawatt based 'super fast' charger. It really doesnt matter
* There's no standard battery pack between makes and models.
* It is one of the more expensive components of the car, so operating a business around taking in and giving out extremely expensive equipment is a massive hurdle from a capital investment standpoint, not to mention the equipment to remove and install the batteries - you basically need the equivalent of a mechanic shop or oil-change setup
* Battery packs, as currently designed, are not always fully separable from the rest of the car- cooling systems etc. are not 100% self contained, but may pump heat elsewhere in the vehicle to be radiated off
You're basically asking a company to take on the ownership aspect of the most expensive part of an EV, to accept strangers' batteries and to give out yours in exchange. To make this possible, major manufacturers would have to agree not only on a standard for their batteries, but also to make the batteries quickly removable.
You're asking consumers to buy a car with a brand new battery in it, then after a few hours of driving to take that battery to a third party service station and give it away for some stranger's battery that may not perform as well.
To be honest, I think if this were the present-day reality, it would eliminate pretty much all of the concerns of buying an electric car- you don't need to add a lot of time to long trips (no worries that super chargers aren't available or operating at peak efficiency), and you don't have to worry that the battery going dead due to a fault renders your vehicle worth less than the cost of a new battery- because the service station that swapped out the battery for you would be on the hook for the cost.
However, I struggle to believe it would be cost effective- your customers can charge their own batteries at home for cheaper than they can exchange them, so they aren't going to be exchanging nearly as frequently as an ICE fills up at a gas station.
I think in order to make it practical today we would need a standard for "quick-replace" batteries. The thing that would make it practical would be that manufacturers would no longer need to go to crazy lengths with their battery design, because range wouldn't matter as much, because you could replace the battery so quickly at a service station. Another interesting benefit is that they could make the cars tell drivers to change out sooner, so fewer batteries get completely discharged, preserving battery efficiency. Like gas/diesel service stations do today, they could support a couple different chemistries and battery formats, with trucks having purpose-built bays and stations as they do today.
> your customers can charge their own batteries at home for cheaper than they can exchange them
This isn't strictly true. 40 million Americans live in apartments, and there is no way for most people in apartments to charge at home. And as we depend more on renewables, the time at which you use electricity will become more important; solar isn't available at night, wind can die down, hydro may be less useful during droughts. And this is all assuming we complete building the grid upgrades needed to charge 280 Million passenger vehicles overnight every night. Not to mention 1 in 4 chargers in the USA don't work.
I think battery swaps are going to be an important mitigation, but obviously not a panacea.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tesla-gets-295m-in-green-su...
Once profitable from gamed subsidies and they begin expiring flee headquarters out of the state.
> Tesla claimed the credits between 2012 and mid-2014 — part of a program designed to encourage the carmaker to promote its new battery-swap technology. The program did not require evidence the company actually provided the service.
Sounds like 300M isn't the total just for the battery swap tech, but I might be wrong.
So non-Tesla EV makers benefited from Tesla bringing attention to the issue.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmWL1hZQmD0
Nio's plan is to have 4,000 stations by 2025:
https://www.nio.com/news/nio-announces-nio-power-2025-batter...
They've recently done a deal with EnBW to install swap stations at EnBW's charge parks:
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/nio-in...
Trips will require fast chargers but people often stop for food or bathroom so there's an overlap in time
Will there be extra time for most people due to a few long trips a year? Yes, a bit but that's worth it.
Finally there is a percentage of people who this will not convenient for and they should continue to use gas or diesel.
This right here. I'm no stranger to 6+-hour car rides, and my planning guideline has always been to assume 30 minutes of stops for every three hours driven. And even current battery and charging tech is good enough to satisfy that time budget.
Obviously there is a scale problem since an electric car battery is 50-100 kWh compared to 1.7 kWh for a scooter battery. It still seems like a promising technology though, especially if someone can figure out a form factor that makes the battery swap easier.
Otherwise it’s similar to the original Tesla situation where each manufacturer has to build their own network of battery swapping stations all over the world at great cost. If you’re out if juice in your VW and the only thing near by is a Chevy station you’re doomed to get a tow.
Short of a government mandate, which will never happen in the US, I don’t think automakers would ever get on one standard.
I believe pre-unleaded gas it was just a standard but the US Gov made some regulations in the 70s about it.
I think it would play out similarly, with companies coalescing on a standard on their own and regulation coming afterwards.
I’ve had one for a year and I’m at the point where I don’t think 2 minute fill-ups matter at all.
As long as you have reasonable range (~200mi) most people will never drive it in a day. All you have to do is charge it while you’re sleeping* and you’re golden.
That leaves road trips. A 45 minute charge gets kind of annoying. But vehicles/chargers are getting better. I’m pretty sure there are 20 minute or less vehicles. That’s a fine number, but every bit helps.
Unless you’re driving a long distance every day without stopping much home charging is 98% of your “fill-ups”. And as long as you have a Level 2 charger speed doesn’t matter too much.
* Can’t charge at home? Don’t buy an EV. Until we have apartment/street charging worked out so everyone can charge overnight EVs won’t be ready for everyone.
I know my car, the Mach E, is one of the slowest. And it’s not terrible.
So it goes.
The bigger problem right now seems to be charger maintenance/reliability. But as more people use them and more stations get installed I’m hoping it will improve.
For short-ish local trips, I agree that you just don't need to care, because you charge overnight, so pretty much any new day when you need the car, it's fully charged.
My concern has always been for longer trips. Part just the fear that I'd fail to plan properly and end up stranded somewhere without a charge (assuming the current world where charging is a lot harder to come by than gasoline refueling). But even in the case where I plan properly, the idea of having to sit for 45 minutes -- or even 20 -- while waiting for the car to charge seemed super annoying. But maybe it isn't so bad, considering that on a longer car trip it's often nice (and just a good idea in general) to take breaks every now and then. At a half-hour stop to charge, I could use the restroom, perhaps get a light snack to eat, or even just catch up on whatever dumb things had shown up on my phone while I'd been driving.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquid_organic_hydrogen_carrie...
Just add some cheap and reliable fuel-cell...
They are effectively a cousin to fuel cells and I wonder if someone needs to think of them that way to make it work.
The article talks about where certain raw materials are currently being produced (cobalt, nickel, lithium, etc.) without discussing where those materials could be produced (reserves). There might be vast reserves of those same materials in areas where it is forbidden to mine or where things like permits and regulations make it unprofitable to refine. Does the DRC really have 70 percent of all cobalt on the Earth, or is it just cheap to mine there due to slave labor and lax environmental laws?
I always (uneducatedly) assume island nations would be poor in minerals.
Only option with higher density, lower cost and heat reduction to make rapid charge times feasible (which are the key to adoption IMO).
At least from what I’ve seen.
edit: I'm aware of the statistics about gasoline vehicle fires, guys.
edit2: does anybody have an answer to the question I asked?
Also I wouldn't say the car being in motion is a convenient time to have a fire. You're often not just standing there with a fire extinguisher handy.
1. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ford-i...
Fuel leaks, electrical shorts, you name it. A lot more frequently than EVs too.
It’s why garages are required to have auto closing fire doors.
I’m not a fan of speculation for things so easily measurable.
https://electrek.co/2022/01/12/government-data-shows-gasolin...
With gasoline you can put it off using water, while for EVs water will actually make the fire worse and you'll need special compounds to turn it off.
An analogy: if a Cessna is more survivable in a crash than a jumbo jet but the jumbo jet crashes 100x less, you still want to be flying on the jumbo jet.
Water is perfectly fine to use on lithium-ion battery fires. It cools down the battery eventually stopping thermal runaway. A strategy I've seen is to submerge the battery pack in water. There's also water additives that help dissolve some of the chemicals in lithium-ion batteries.
Note that lithium-ion (and similar) batteries only contain a small amount of polymerized lithium, unlike lithium batteries which contain raw lithium and thus react with water.
As for probability, why are you assuming they'll be more dangerous?
It also tries to combine data with hybrid vehicles with ICE vehicles because they also have a gas component. They don't do the same with EV, even though hybrids also have an battery component. There is no attempt to distinguish if the fires were caused by the gas or the battery in those cases.
When I see a study fudge the numbers in one area, I am suspect of all the numbers it presents.
https://www.autoinsuranceez.com/gas-vs-electric-car-fires/
The orange and purple colored chart.
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Figure 10 shows that roughly three-quarters of the highway vehicle fires reported in the US in 2017 that were caused by mechanical or electrical failures (77 percent) involved cars with model years of 2007 or earlier. This was true for only 54 percent of the fires resulting from collisions or overturns. As vehicles age, parts wear out, extended maintenance plans expire, and maintenance can be overlooked. Consequently, it is not surprising that vehicles that are at least 10 years old are at greater risk of a fire started by a mechanical or electrical failure or malfunction.
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- Source: https://www.nfpa.org/-/media/Files/News-and-Research/Fire-st...
On EV's, their opinion was mostly summed up as such: "Mechanical and electrical fires, the most common fires in ICEVs, become more common as the vehicles age. EVs have not yet reached the ages where these conditions are more commonly seen."
So at least for me, I'd be somewhat hesitant to take Electrek claim's at face value.
Youtube search "bridgehill fire blanet"
Moreover, in the data you cited, of the nine recalls listed, only 1/9 is caused by a part of the gasoline system, and 8/9 are caused by batteries. Thus, all the fires in gas cars that are cited here are caused by the electrical components, which are scaled up in EVs.
Are the odds of an in-garage, turned-off fire greater for ICE vehicles also, or is that risk mostly on the EV side? I realize it is not a huge risk either way, but I have actually considered parking our EV in our driveway to eliminate small, but non-zero risk of house-burning catastrophe.
On practice, I have no idea how well built your options of vehicle are. Either one can be dangerous or safe, it's just easier to make an EV safer (even though yes, once a fire starts the EV is almost always worse to deal with.)
As if EVs needed more negative externalities
It doesn't matter. You'll be lectured none the less.
I had someone ask me about electric vehicle fires just before the holiday. She is worried because her son has a preorder deposit on a Tesla Cybertruck. I told her they were safe; fires are unlikely, and ICE cars burn too. That won't stop the worry; you can't tell people anything.
Bottom line is people believe they're dangerous. I knew that would happen and said so: Telsa et al. needed to do the necessary education before the inevitable headlines hit. They didn't, so here we are. Got modded into the dirt for predicting this.
Go ahead, smash that down button. You can't tell people anything.
No, sorry. A blanket statement likely that isn't meaningful. The failure modes you're comparing are very different and both have aspects that are either more or less "dangerous" than the other.
Liquid fuel can spread and ignite very rapidly, whereas damaged batteries tend to smolder for a time before erupting into a large fire. Lithium Ion cells produce large quantities of toxic gases (hydrogen fluoride, in particular, which attacks mucous membranes.) Liquid fuel can be ignited by static electricity from clothing and whatnot. Battery cells can conceal damage from both manufacturing and later events that lead to ignition at unexpected moments.
I could go on and on. And for everything I claimed someone else can find an analogous risk with the other. There is no definitive analysis here. Anyone that claims otherwise is talking out of their ass. We won't have answers until there is a fleet full of 20+ year old, neglected electric cars running around getting into wrecks. Even then we'll have to parse the truth from whatever agenda driven narratives prevail at that time.
Go ask a firefighter which they think is more dangerous.
If people "believe" and forgive me for translating that to "feel" they are dangerous what education would Tesla have to do and why would it have worked. Especially with an entire political spectrum dumping EV fears.
tl;dr: Your allies and word of mouth do it for you. This is literally why car manufacturers have press and PR offices. You have to not only respond to media, you have to proactively engage politicians, journalists, influencers, etc. What you cannot do is throw up your hands and say “no one will believe us so why bother. Our fanbois get it!”
I'd have started with fire departments. We're now replete with horror stories of un-extinguishable fires and re-igniting cars, new headlines appearing routinely with juicy quotes from unprepared fire fighters. That's unnecessary and could have been avoided, obviating the bulk of those headlines. Instead fire fighters could have been advocates. Advocates people listen to.
If the probability of a EV fire is equal or less than a gas or diesel car fire the concern is illogical.
https://sci-hub.se/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-02...
Even if you don't take his word, it's tough to suggest that he isn't effectively responsible for all of Tesla's success, at least in terms of knowing when the technology was ready to be turned into serious cars and hiring the right people to achieve that, both in terms of design and getting the production lines to scale (which was the prerequisite for the 2018 stock bonus that is now responsible for a large portion of his stake in TSLA/net worth).
> Elon Musk took an active role within the company and oversaw Roadster product design at a detailed level, but was not deeply involved in day-to-day business operations
He was certainly the primary person keeping them afloat financially. By January of 2009 the company had raised $187 million and $70 million of that was Musk. That was just before Tesla finally caught it's big break in June of that same year when it got $465 million from the US DoE, by far its biggest investment
But even on the financial side of things he's caused many headaches for the company. Like in 2016 when he made Tesla buy his cousins' (failing) solar company, SolarCity. Of course he neglected to mention to Tesla shareholders that it was failing
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/06/tesla-founders-martin-eberha...
GM sells two EVs, one that spontaneously combusts (bolt) and one that is the least efficient EV sold (hummer).
How about they fix their efficiency and reliability before trying to make a different battery chemistry work.
Likewise the new EV credit prioritizes inefficient vehicles by having a higher limit for large suvs and trucks.
We should just stick to technology that works, and focus on efficiency and scaling. Any new chemistry will still be a science experiment in 2030 (when allegedly gas vehicles will stop being produced)
It's possible to do more than one thing at a time for most people/organizations/entities.