> It’s pretty obvious why ...
That's never evidence and a well-labeled gateway to our own fallacy. There's a reason serious examination of an issue requires factual evidence in any field, from medicine to law to science, etc.
IME, in areas I lack expertise, the truth is usually intuitive but an unexpected intuition. The only solution, the only source of truth, is evidence.
Do I need to say this on HN? Sadly, it seems like it.