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Comment by strangescript | Hacker News Reader

Everyone wants to blame it on something, but the reality is we are in a bear market. All but a few coins will go down 90+%, the few others will go down 70% and bitcoin dominance (bitcoin market cap compared to entire crypto market cap) will go up.

Some of these coins will recover in the next bull market, but the question is always which ones. This cycle has happened multiple times at this point.

Crypto is dead, the sky is falling. Its all happened before. The only thing that might be different this time is we could be starting a very long global bear market started by high interest rates in the U.S. to curb runaway inflation.

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And crypto has also categorically failed to be a hedge against inflation! It has proved to be high correlated and it is just as fiat as anything else. Backed by irrational exuberance.

Most of the gains in Bitcoin are highly correlated with gains in the SP500. The times that it tends to decouple is when Bitcoin is crashing due to Bitcoin problems. So definitely not a great inflation hedge and definitely a rather risky asset class.

Seems to be correlated with everything else that was buoyed by surplus money

People talk about fiat as currency as if it is ludicrous but the crypto market has verifiably been a series pump and dump schemes.

It is ludicrous, and crypto is even more ludicrous. But honestly, the first step to understanding any of it is to first realize that it is all quite absurd.

besides those US-citizen-only, 15k-per-year-maximum, inflation indexed bonds, what was a safe and good hedge against inflation?

SPY is closing a big fat red yearly candle, and I wouldn't call real state safe since you could be easily overpaying above inflation.

what are you using to benchmark crypto against?

There's no coin that have gained ground against Bitcoin after their first cycle ATH against Bitcoin. Not even Ethereum.

You basically have to gamble on a coin that have never been seen in a Bull market. Otherwise Bitcoin is always the better bet.

Bitcoin network costs an absolute fortune to run compared to Ethereum (after the switch to POS which everyone insisted would never happen, would fail, etc), and that difference can't be ignored forever. Best of luck to Bitcoin maxis after the next halvening...

Bitcoin has been an absolutely terrible bet for the last 4 years. On top of that most people in eth multiplied their holdings during defi summer.

ETH/BTC reached 0.1515 in June 2017. This cycle it peaked at 0.08838 and it's currently at 0.07206.[1] If anyone in ETH multiplied their holdings by a number above 0.5, it had to be gambling on one of the small coins that has since crashed 95%+ (such as OP) and getting out before the music stopped. If you're chasing multiples, you can only end up lucky or burned. Slow and steady wins the race.

[1]: https://bitcoinwisdom.io/markets/bitfinex/ethbtc, zoom out to 1w

>ETH/BTC reached 0.1515 in June 2017

Yes, there were few weeks when ethbtc was higher, but that was over 4 years ago.

There were 6 months of free money during the second half of 2020 with three digit APR. Most active people in defi multiplied their eth holdings several times (4-6x). There was no risk because tokens to dump were received for free.

>Slow and steady wins the race.

No, it doesn't. Yield wins the race. This cycle had a once in a lifetime free money period. There's not making up for missing that. Current yields are single digit but still good.

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