Worth noting the Dow Jones U.S. Auto Manufacturers Index is down 62% YTD.
GM down 42% Past year
Ford (F) down 46% Past Year
Chrysler/Jeep (Stellantis) down 26% Past Year
Toyota (TM) down 27% Past year
Mercedes (MGGYY) down 31% Past Year
Lucid Group (LCID) down 84% Past Year
Nissan (NSANY) Down 36% Past Year
Tesla (TSLA) Down 71% Past Year
Honda (HMC) Down 18% Past Year
Volkswagon (VWAGY) Down 48% Past Year
BMW (BMWYY) down 13% Past YearAlso, Tesla went up a lot. It seems only fair to also compare the upward trend like saying from 2020pr 2019 or something.
Every company is up infinitely from its founding. The implied question is how Tesla is faring in the current market, and how it is weathering Musk’s recent travails. Neither of those defend a 2019 starting point.
For example, PayPal and Square are down 64% ytd. Is it because their CEOs go mental on social media too?
No, but it means there are firm-specific factors driving their value down faster than their benchmarks. We can’t answer why it’s happening. But we can say it’s abnormal.
But, for some reason nobody mentions this, They all point to Musk + Twitter instead.
Another counter evidence: Musk accused British diver of being a pedophile. You would think nobody would want to associate themselves with people who falsely accused other people with pedophilia, right?
Then, the stock went up 40x.
If it had any impact, it shouldn't have been 40x. I doubt Musk's erratic behavior impacts the stock price that much.
My comment above compares the change in price to other car companies because that is really what makes sense right?
Tesla went up 40x but other car companies went up 2x at best.
Tesla was overvalued like other tech companies. It is actually the most overvalued tech stock. It going down like other tech stocks seems sensible. Going up a lot -> going down a lot.
Also, I provided an example how musk's erratic behaviour didn't impact stock price.
But you didn't actually provide any comparable example. You just kinda declared that musk's behaviour impacted stock price...
By cherry picking
A down 10%
B down 90%
If B is 50% of the market, the market is down by like... 50%
You can construct practically any total within the extrema if you use the right weights.
And if you're at the point where you have some "extra" savings that you want to take out of a CD or savings account and put into a fund of some sort, reading the various fund manager reports on different funds is endlessly entertaining in how they "hide the sausage" as one does.
All that said, it seems a fair question is this; "Over the last 12 months, how has the stock price of companies that primarily make cars changed?" And the answer to that is that they have all gone down somewhat, some more than others. Interesting to me that BMW was the least affected and Lucid the most. I don't have many car stocks in my portfolio. I did add some when people were paying more to buy back used cars than they sold them for because that suggested to me they would have an uptick when the supply chain bounced back, and I do have Honda (long) since I've always admired the company's management. Other than that though, I got out mid last year (summer '21).
Toyota's market cap is 180b
Ford/GM/BMW/Honda's are around 50b
Tesla has 350b market cap now. About equal to all the ones I listed above.
It'd have an outsized affect plummeting from over 1 trillion a year ago to 350 billion now.
For example, supporting old models, maintaining inventories of available parts, complying with new regulations, labor issues and unionization, dependence on commodity input costs, environmental issues in production, risk of lawsuits as a result of accidents. Risk of lawsuits over dealership relations and bypassing local laws. Risk of lawsuits over "fully self-driving" marketing. Geopolitical risks with factories in China. Competitive risks from Chinese EV producers.
If I were to hazard a guess, I'd say too many investors are treating it as a tech stock rather than as a manufacturing company, and they don't understand that there are solid reasons why manufacturing companies tend not to do well in the U.S., and aren't able to defend high operating margins nearly as well as tech companies. At least no one has managed to explain to me why Tesla should succeed in maintaining high margins for domestic auto manufacturing when so many others have failed.
5 Years TSLA: 425.53% GM: -18.71% FORD: -10.33% STLA: -21.52%
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/index/DOW-JONES-US-AUTO...
Tesla's is still clearly the worst, at -69%, but Ford and GM have -45 and -43% respectively. If it's market-cap weighted (I can't tell at a glance), TSLA will have outsized influence, at a current market cap of $344B vs Ford and GM at $45B and $47B, and those three together being about 90% of the index's market cap.
Only three components of it are up for the year.