I'm still not bought in yet, probably a lot more room for it to crater.
I'm also unconvinced that we should be 100% in on only lithium for BEVs, it's important to have multiple technologies.
Just look as traditional ICE cars, we have Petrol and Diesel. I see Lithium as the Petrol of BEVs, what's the Diesel going to be?
Ok, since it didn't make the news, I'm completely on the dark here... but are you talking about the supply of lithium?
If so, I have some news to you about one of the most common metals on Earth's surface.
If you don't tell what you want to say, I'm pretty comfortable to keep assuming the details are all wrong. And yes, it's a simple algorithm. Yet it seems to work quite well.
I'm not worried about the abundance of lithium, it is the speed at which we can get it that is the issue. One can still have a shortage even if there is an abundance of potential materials. And starting new mines is a long process. The quickest I have ever seen a decent mine come online from initial approval is 8 years.
Materials we should worry about long term in terms of total volume would be stuff like Cobalt, Nickle and Graphite. But not in the next decade.
A big part of the whole issue of mining is something I always have to bring up to some folks. There are four ways to categorize in which a material is available.
The is the resource, how much we theorize is available. Lithium is a great example, there is loads of the stuff.
There are the reserves, how much we actually know exists. Where it is, what grades etc. This is always lower than the resource.
There is if it is technically extract able. Do we have the technology to get it out? What good is a reserve if it is 200KM under ground? The total of this is always less than the reserves.
And finally, what is economically viable. Say we can still get the materials, are people willing to pay for it? This is my big argument against mining asteroids. This is always less than what is technically extract able.
Once you past through those 4 gates then we can start talking. Don't just talk strategy, talk logistics. It is boring an dirty but it is were the rubber meets the road.
The abundance argument is the same used for silicon and solar panels. Yes it is everywhere but there is a reason we mine quartz rather than just boiling up random patches of dirt to get the stuff.
I had to build my own Excel spreadsheet for this.
But I would love to find a place where they've already done this for me!
I think the energy side of their business is about to grow tremendously and they'll reduce profit margin and continue growing crazy fast on the auto side.
Source?
Also with a BEV if you have solar, you can literally fuel your car for free. Why bother with hydrogen?
AMZN P/E: 75
MCD P/E: 34