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Why 2%? The classic number for safe withdrawal rate is 4%, and that's without doing any modulating in the bad years. 3% seems good to me.

For early retirees, Ben Felix has found the SWR to be closer to 2.7%.

The oft-cited 4% depends on US data and studied 30-year time horizons.

after inflation is key; I've lived through double-digit myself and doubt any non-modulating strategy could handle that gracefully.