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Comment by mrazomor | Hacker News Reader

- Tech jobs at FAANG no longer look attractive or stable. Google hits the final nail in the coffin (not necessarily involving the layoffs)

- The age of smart assistants is over

- Microsoft will make a huge mistake involving Windows -> governments and companies start making concrete transition to MacOS and Linux desktop (start in late 2023)

- The all of above leads to a revolution of smaller companies, their boom, innovation, and culture which more resemble 90s than 2020s.

- Emergence of a new UI (non-smartphone/desktop/voice/VR)

- Countries start to move away from the fossil fuels for generating electricity. New nuclear revolution.

- New major Internet fragmentation

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Year of the Linux again huh. Windows isn’t popular because it’s good, it’s popular because everyone knows it and Microsoft has good enough relations with every large organization in the world. MacOS is too expensive to seriously replace windows. Smart assistants will take off as chatGPT becomes commoditized, but it will look very different since you’ll have to pay for it.

Windows is popular with users, because they are afraid of Linux, not because they really know how to use it.

Windows is popular with sysadmins because it is easier to administer a large enterprise with it.

Seriously. My joke when Windows users say they don't know how to use Linux is that they don't know how to use Windows either but that doesn't stop them.

Yet you don't really try to understand why Windows keeps winning with general users ? Until we change this attitude that Linux is superior and people don't know any better, windows will continue winning.

>Yet you don't really try to understand why Windows keeps winning with general users ?

I don't really care. But I realize it is because they don't value the same things I do. Which is fine. I have no desire to tell people what they want. If they prefer convenience(largely illusory) to privacy and quality, it's none of my business. Let them eat McDonalds, work 50 hours a week, and shop til they drop.

MS has a limited amount of credit. It will expire eventually. If MS makes a bad move, it might kick off an avalanche. People leaving FAANG etc., might kick start new companies that help improving support, breaking the old relations, and building new ones.

And ChatGPT won't take off, IMO. It's a nice piece of tech, but lacks what's needed for productionisation. I didn't even include it in 2023 prediction, as 2023 won't even properly start before people forget it.

ChatGPT is immeasurably better than google assistant. Tons of people use that already, there’s no way they don’t upgrade it. Sure it won’t be the same, but it’ll follow the same idea of a massive transformer trained on the entire internet.

What's the ChatGPT traffic volume (requests per second), and what's Assistant's? Or any of the prominent search engines? What would be cost of running ChatGPT at that traffic volume & comparable (user friendly) latency or reliability?

How old is the data that ChatGPT is serving? How costly or feasible is to update it?

In short, the ChatGPT is frozen in all directions. Those are technical limitations.

ChatGPT is an amazing tech demo. It distrupted the Big Tech. That's great. But, we'll need to wait for the new generation. Not ChatGPT iterative improvement.

Wishing corporations of the world to be weened off Windows is like Immortan Joe telling the rabble below not to get hooked on water.

I love Linux but let's not kid ourselves. Isn't it a couple of decades now when Linux was supposed to kill Windows and it hasn't ? I say this is more of a wishful thinking.

My impression is that the past predictions were based on Linux desktop winning from the tech & UX side. That's unlikely to happen.

I'm betting on the Windows regression. MS is making it happen. Forced reboots, lengthy updates, forcing people to create Microsoft Account, ads and app store. It's horror. I don't understand how people allow that. In addition, MS Office and similar often change the whole UI or the formats. How the people/companies keep up with that?

> governments and companies start making concrete transition to MacOS

Governments are more strapped for money than ever before, I don’t see them paying a huge Apple tax for no benefit at all.

> The age of smart assistants is over

I don't totally get this one, even with just Whisper and ChatGPT you could build one hell of a smart assistant compared to Alexa or Siri. Maybe it doesn't come out next year, but I bet this category comes back in a year or two.

> Tech jobs at FAANG no longer look attractive or stable. Google hits the final nail in the coffin (not necessarily involving the layoffs)

This is already happening. FAANGs no longer pay the top dollars according to levels.fyi report: https://www.levels.fyi/2022

> and culture which more resemble 90s than 2020s

What was the culture like in 90s? Any articles/books I can read?

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