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Comment by jodrellblank | Hacker News Reader

I have none; I guess 2023 will be broadly similar to 2022, and I feel like the UK is trending down in many respects, but those aren’t predictions worth anything. Huge shifts in the world tend to be unpredictable by ordinary people - many saw a pandemic was due at some point, few saw COVID coming in the six months preceding as very early news came in small fragments from China.

Who, if anyone, tends to make specific predictions down to the months timeframe and has a good track record?

Many in this thread so far are vague - how would you tell if “West tires of war in Ukraine” happened or didn’t? If “people see Vue is Angular again” happened or didn’t in 2033? If “climate change worsens” happens? “Shor’s algorithm will factor 35” is a very specific one, much better.

What specific prediction like that is the most extreme one that you feel confident making?

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> many saw a pandemic was due at some point, few saw COVID coming in the six months preceding as very early news came in small fragments from China.

Last years hd a few saying Russia would invade Ukraine (and as many saying it wouldn’t), but of those they thought Ukraine would fold in days and have no support from the west.

Nobody expected Ukraine to successfully repel the invasion.

In 2020 predictions I don’t see any reference to pandemics or other Heath based issues - and covid was already beginning with several cases having being confirmed.

Makes you wonder what minor thing could be known already and about to change the world but completely invisible to us now.

Yeah iirc i was reading about a suspected outbreak of a new disease in China late 2019, I told my coworkers about it too and wondered how it hadn't garnered more attention, or if I had just watched too many bio-horror flicks, or fallen for clickbait-y fear mongering. I never suspected it's impact would have the scale it did, especially after the Ebola containment went so smooth.

Yet you, and nobody else, seems to have posted anything about it on HN

https://hn.algolia.com/?dateEnd=1577750400&dateRange=custom&...

If a tree falls and HN doesn't post it, did it ever happen?

I was not on HN prior to covid. The early news I read was likely the plague scare[0], but I definitely read the reuters article[1] when it came out which prompted me to talk to my coworkers about it. I was not sounding any alarms though, more like "check this out..." in the lunchroom.

[0]https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/16/china-bubonic-plague-ou...

[1]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-pneumonia/ch...

Higher interest rates will cause a large economic event in 2023. Just like rising interest rates in 2007 led into 2008 crisis.

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