Eight studies reveal a bias in human imagination
experimentalhistory.substack.com
experimentalhistory.substack.com
Where is the nearest grocery store? "Earth."
How can your phone be worse or better? "It could not work."
There are endless ways, most of them uninteresting, to make something worse. Making something better is interesting.
So using comparison is probably our default way of looking at things. Which is what the studies say.
"What do you want for dinner?"
"Food"
"What KIND of food?"
"The good kind"
> Everybody knows about the hedonic treadmill: once you’re moderately happy, it’s hard to get happier. But nobody has ever really explained why this happens. People say things like, “oh, you get used to good things,” but that’s just a description, not an explanation. Why do people get used to good things?
> Now we might have an answer: people get used to good things because they’re always imagining how things could be better. So even if things get better, you might not feel better. When you live in a cramped apartment, you dream of getting a house. When you get a house, you dream of a second house. Or you dream of lower property taxes. Or a hot tub. Or two hot tubs. And so on, forever.
When I got a house, I spent a bunch of money and it was during a recession, so my two adjacent plans then became derivative. I already have plans for when I'm secure, but they're mostly around optimizing for cost, efficiency, and reliability.
I used to not have a lot of money, and for a time, was stuck in the poor cycle. Plan making let me escape that thinking/action cycle.
Now, I don't think I'd be less happy without optimizations to my house unless they violated some ideal I had like living frugally. I was definitely unhappy watching my chances to get a house slip away but I turned that into some happiness by realizing that every time I walked away from a deal I had a little more money, which increased my odds of not only getting a house, but getting the exact one I wanted. By the time I bought a house I basically dictated the terms because I had cash in a recession.
...because we can all imagine how the article could be better!
(Btw, I agree with you but want to check my priors)
Then how come other animals like orcas and dolphins that show signs of a mood didn’t keep evolving their general intelligence?
Kinda hand wavy video but maybe that’s the idea? Not sure.
The industrial revolution and the great windfall of wealth that came with it didn't make people happier (to the extent we can measure it). But there is one group that does seem to find happiness: the small pockets of civilization which took a different road, never bothering to switch from hunter-gatherer to farming.
I do not know if any animal is “happy” but this[0] is the paper (and there are quite a few that are similar in nature) that have empirical evidence that “happy chemicals” aren’t only there for happiness.
Another point is that the “happiest” and longest living pockets of civilization are actually farmers[1]. Costa Rica and CA should be discounted as there is a 20 year average age discrepancy between Japan/Italy/Greece(90s) and CA/Costa Rica (70s).
In my opinion, I would say that happiness is evolutionary and it is driven by desire to get better/explore, etc. This fits your thesis but I fork at the notion that it’s a driver. My hunch is that happiness is kinda like candy or weekends — intended in small doses as reward for survival. Since “happy chemicals” are responsible for such a large swath of human bodily functions[2], a high release can have detrimental effects (dopamine is responsible for movement and memory, for example, in addition to motivation).
Basically, I agree with the video that we’re not suppose to be always happy and our search is actually a by product of understanding “happiness”. Kinda how pigs will purposefully knock apples to the ground and eat them a week or two later to get drunk[3].
[0]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2720267/
[1]: https://time.com/5160475/blue-zones-healthy-long-lives/?amp=...
[2]: https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/articles/22581-dopamin...
Sadly, that's about all the time for in depth effort posting I have today. Maybe if I had more time I'd be happy...
Also, anti depressants have a strong history of effectiveness and their mechanism is dopamine re-absorption.
Regardless, I appreciate the conversation and happy holidays.
Congress is a clique filled with old inside traders that hoard money like dragons while the phone is a device which enables me to even know about that. That's what's going in my head.
I’m being pedantic on the analogy because I think it’s important for people to have the right framing on a major problem with American politics. Namely, too much money going to campaigns and PACs influencing politicians. Congresspeople generally aren’t super rich.
Your point about what goes on in your head still stands.
Congress folk are highly likely to have an investment professional managing their money, who usually outperform “the market” (whatever that means, considering most don’t benchmark S&P for obvious reasons).
What I really don’t get is that most insider trades make less than 70k before going to jail and even with inside information, a large percentage of insider trades don’t make money (but you still go to jail). Yet folks think it’s some kind of cheat code.
Folks need to stop reading WSB.
The laws are literally different for them: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/it-illegal-lawmake...
SEC, that prosecutes insider trading, is a civil regulatory body and cannot send people to jail, which the article mentions for some odd reason. And I’d put the odds at 100:1 that any prosecutor in the SEC would love to go after a Congress person to further their career.
Lastly, not sure most are aware, insider trading is usually spotted by SECs internal AI/algo that is connected to all brokers, clearing houses, etc. they are very good at finding folks.
Edit: another thing that is missing from this discussion is the SEC awards a portion of the proceeds to the whistleblower of any case. I just can’t believe no one ratted out a Congress member for retirement money and all members are security masterminds.
Have you considered the selection bias going on as an alternative explanation. Maybe the people with the competence and skills to get to Congress are just smarter than the average person with an investment account.
Also, there is a law prohibiting senators from trading on insider information, which kinda goes against your whole point.
https://www.congress.gov/112/plaws/publ105/PLAW-112publ105.h...
It’s a lot easier to match patterns in a db vs. real life crime.
But more to the point, you're wrong here and we know you to be wrong because otherwise white collar crime wouldn't exist, but it does.
There's nothing about being a Congressperson that lends itself better to the kinds of knowledge or intelligence that would increase the chances of betting well on the stock market...
...except the knowledge that comes from a) knowing what legislation will be ahead of time, and b) getting "paid" in insider knowledge from companies that want favorable treatment. (And possibly other kinds of insider-trading-type knowledge; I'm not particularly familiar with the specific methods they use.)
How do you know that? Their outcomes indicate otherwise.
They're clearly in some regards quite exceptional people.
This is assuming the consequent.
There are two possible explanations being proposed for the observed outcome "Congresspeople do better than average at the stock market."
I am proposing the explanation "they are engaging in insider trading," and proposing evidence to support that.
You are proposing the explanation "they're just better at it", and giving as evidence solely the outcome we are attempting to explain. It's circular.
In any case. I'm not saying there is no insider trading going on in Congress. After all, there are hundreds of representatives. Of course some are greedy idiots, and some even criminals. But the majority, and I believe thats a large majority, are honest people who care about the people they represent.
A congress person is able to constantly make decisions with imperfect information and be successful doing it, one can imagine that skill could give them an edge when trading.
But the reason I don't agree with it is because they're using 3rd part managers. It's far more likely that they're advising.
However, the way to put this to bed is to compare their accounts with those of others being managed by the same team. do they out-perform, under-perform, or roughly match those other accounts? There's your answer.
We've reverted to a quasi-aristocracy and there is scant will to leverage tech in order to realize the ideals of the Constitution.
To unpack that statement, think about someone that does nothing with their life. Literally nothing. They'll quickly suffer hunger, starvation and finally a slow death. These are the defaults of life, you cannot sit still. It is not a choice. Even us who feed ourselves, and live a life, will still suffer old age and death. All one can do is take action in their life to reduce their suffering now, and in the future. You can apply this model to all facets of life, from relationships, work, gym, healthy eating, art and so on.
So really the study has just thought about it from the wrong angle. It's not people thinking 'how things could be better', its the brain naturally thinking 'how can I reduce my suffering further'.
I suspect that this is an example. There are a huge number of ways things could be worse, and a far smaller number of ways things could be better. So it may actually be easier to come up with examples from the latter set, since your options are more restricted.
But in that case I'm almost always comparing hypothetical to hypothetical, i.e. bracing myself before trying someone's first homecooked meal. I imagine that I'm about to eat literal dirt, and this makes even lightly-seasoned sludge taste somewhat fancy.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientists-probe-...
The catch is that said altruism is rather strongly affected by parochiality, meaning that it's weaker towards the outgroup, and conflict of interests between the ingroup and the outgroup tends to override it.
However those conclusions were not backed by such a large and objective, replicable study that had a good control group.
> The catch is that said altruism is rather strongly affected by parochiality, meaning that it's weaker towards the outgroup, and conflict of interests between the ingroup
Nope. If you read the details, you will note that such divisions do not have the importance people think they have. Any group they created from random people behaved the same way.
The even more reveling concluson was this: When they gave people time to think, education, upbringing started to kick in and people started making selfish decisions. Which points out that the selfishness that is seen in our society is not something natural or instinctive - its man-made.
Although the middle managers who have destroyed things like the e.g. the Discovery channel are kind of doing the latter, but they'd argue they're making it better by increasing profits through cheap paranormal ghost shows.
We call it thermodynamics, Murphy’s Law, and other things.
So evolution countered that bias by focusing our attention wherever we might conceivably be able to improve things. Or push others to improve things.
That’s my theory
This is great prompt for ChatGPT. I had fun exploring its internal biases. Examples:
guns -> add safety & tracking features
drug abuse -> decriminalization, safe injection sites
national defense policy -> fewer nukes, more cyber & space defense
interrogation techniques -> more ethics & sensitivity training, more psychological & non-coercive techniques
environmental regulation -> prevention, penalties, accountability, global approach
cryptocurrency -> scale up, security features, regulation, integration
abortion -> increase access, funding, legal protection
racial justice -> more academic, employment & leadership opportunities, intersectionality
It clearly has a bias towards lefty, pro-government, pro-regulation positions. I would assume because its training inputs came more from academia, less from right-wing rants.
So it is definitely a bias, and I respectfully submit your comment is a strongly expressed example.
I assume strongly that if you phrase the question as “how might your life be worse or better” people will also thing of negative alternatives.
The thing is when you only ask “how might your life be different” people will pull on what they have already thought about and most people have plans and dreams for improvements already in their mind.