Contrarian investing (and contrarian opinions) are the way for the individual. Doesn’t mean every bet has to be opposite the herd but as an individual you need to lean into your strengths (nimbleness and ability to pivot quick) to beat the big guys.

For last 15 years it was about making gains at all, but now that inflation is 10% it’s how you prevent losing your money.

So much of the future depends on a tiny, unelected body that controls the global economy (the Federal Reserve) that you need to think about interest rates a lot. I come from the Austrian perspective but I understand mainstream economic reasoning so I can put myself into that mental framework when thinking about the future. However fundamentally I am a classical economic liberal, free market, Austrian.

I think inflation is here to stay for a while. I don’t think Biden and society in general can stomach a massive recession. Putting cash into short term treasuries can get you a guaranteed 5% which could be safe play given how crazy the markets are.

I am cold on AI. Everyone and their mother has been predicting self driving cars, massive job losses to automation, and so on for years. Never happens and not going to. I would avoid this industry as an investor. As labor it can be advantageous as talent is over-compensated.

I’m skeptical of electric cars. Renewables make sense in places but also a skeptic on the time frame. Would avoid electric car and ESG equities.

Residential real estate in places without strong rent control vibes is a good bet. If you can do it yourself even better - the government subsidizes your mortgage and small time landlords avoid a lot of the political intrigue. If you can get an investment property or a small multi family, I would consider swapping equities for that and let rent follow inflation each year.

Short Europe and China. Long Africa and India.

A bunch of opinions here but hopefully this fills in some pieces.