‘Worse than feared’: Brexit to blame for £33B loss to UK economy, study shows | Hacker News Reader

‘Worse than feared’: Brexit to blame for £33B loss to UK economy, study shows

independent.co.uk

55 pointspaulpauper19 comments

Brexit is just the most prominent mismanagement by the British government. It is just the most prominent failure. The people in charge have not used their newly gained independence to improve their country. Brexit is just a distraction from internal problems. Even with Rishi Sunak it doesn't sound like anything has changed, it is business as usual.

It would be better if people who don't want to vote were offered the option of sortition, basically just pick random people from the population, it would be better competition than any career politician or popular entertainer.

No, it was an intentional act by a conservative government that knew what the overall economic damage would be, but this kind of damage primarily hurts the middle- and lower classes. The reason conservatives were pushing for Brexit is that the EU was passing financial transparency laws which would have exposed a bunch of their tax evasion, and that were making it increasingly difficult to pass bigoted laws.

I obviously don't support Brexit.

but it's hard to believe your wild claims without some concrete sources.

As per usual: Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence

The gift that keeps on giving!

>Mr Springford said the impact of Covid had slightly complicated the picture when the think tank’s previous assessment was carried out earlier this year

I'm sure they can properly distinguish between covid and brexit.

This is the team that wrote the report: https://www.cer.eu/experts

Have a look at their Twitter feeds for a good sense of what these people are about.

Yeah, nothing easier than a study to prove anything you want.

"Brexit to blame for 33B loss" when at the same time we had Covid related slowdown and lockdowns, politicians replacing one another, and the situation in Ukraine and its impact on global gas and other supplies...

In any case, the British GDP is 2.6 trillion pounds. 33 billion pounds is a statistical error. To put it in perspective, 12 billion pounds were the cost of the useless one-month fest of the London Olympics...

Even the "British Economy 5% smaller than it would have been without Brexit" they get to (which is much worse than a 33 billion pounds loss), is akin to charlatanism to claim, what with the unknowns of covid and current ukraine situation thrown in...

> 33 billion pounds is a statistical error.

5.5%

> the unknowns of covid and current ukraine situation thrown in...

From the article: "The CER modelled the performance of a “doppelganger” UK – if the nation had remained inside the EU – using data from other advanced economies similar to Britain prior to Brexit, including US, Germany, Norway and Australia."

Comparing against similar countries is not much affected by situations that affect those other countries.

>From the article: "The CER modelled the performance of a “doppelganger” UK – if the nation had remained inside the EU – using data from other advanced economies similar to Britain prior to Brexit, including US, Germany, Norway and Australia."

Which borders on the comical. The US e.g. being the top dog bossing other countries around to buy their own gas and profiteering from the war, Norway being an energy producer (and the top 3rd largest gas exporter in the world), Australia being a totally unrelated economy in a whole other region with whole other factors, and Germany controlling European policy (with or without the UK in it).

The "study" is trully an art of interpreting data to taste!

If someone said that covid cost the economy X would you claim that was charlatanism based on other unknowns, or would you accept that there is some broadly calculable cost of covid? If so then you can work out the cost of Brexit by subtracting that figure.

I don't deny it makes things more difficult, but unless you want to give up entirely on attributing costs to such things, you have to accept that the cost of Brexit is also calculable.

>If so then you can work out the cost of Brexit by subtracting that figure.

If only it was just easy, and outcomes from multiple factors could just be isolated and "substracted from the figure". Even the sole "cost of covid" alone, with just the regular uncertainty of measurement would be disputable (whatever it was) - doubly so when it coincides with two huge other affecting factors...

Heck, even good old GDP measurements border on charlatanism - and that's under fair weather..

It is just a coincidence

pretty optimistic on UK growth if true given it's GDP has faired better than most over the past year.

Is this a lot? It would be small by US standards.

>Is this a lot?

No.

Obviously just a propaganda by some think tank.

Would you like to point to some 'factual' research showing how Brexit has enriched the nation?

From the article:

>Research by the Centre for European Reform (CER), shared with The Independent

https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/organisation/cer-centr...

>The Centre for European Reform is a think-tank devoted to making the European Union work better and strengthening its role in the world.

What Brexit? Nothing changed. In facts things got worse. 15,000 dinghy divers per month. Northern Ireland effectively under EU control, etc, etc, etc. UK is turning into a bananna republic.

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