Eastern US power grid orders cuts, issues system wide emergency
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
Electricity is a commodity to be managed like all others, and during times of extreme cold this is good management. I think it’s easy to bash grid operators (I know, I live in Texas!) but this seems like proper operating procedure here.
An Emergency Load Mgmt Reduction Action and a NERC level EEA2 have been issued. Load reductions should continue until released by PJM. Reductions are mandatory based on product requirements. CSPs should review DR Hub for specific registration details.
Affected:
DR (Demand response hub)
AEP (American Electric Power)
COMED (Commonwealth Edison)
DOM (Dominion Energy)
DPL (Dayton Power and Light)
FE-ATSI (First Energy, American Transmission Systems)
FE-PN (First Energy, Pennsylvania)
Posting time: 12.23.2022 17:51
Start time: 12.23.2022 18:00
Cancellation time: 12.23.2022 21:30
imagine not dialing 911 because you don't want to give the news free content...
To be an emergency or not to be an emergency, that is the question!
Happy Holidays HN!
Don't forget to thank your sysadmin today!
Being after the event was resolved, it may be post-hoc.
Heat pumps are particularly bad in extreme cold weather. Their efficiency goes down a lot (sometimes 4x), at the exact time everyone needs to use them the most.
To be honest, I don't think policymakers have considered this, so I suspect we'll see blackouts on cold winter days quite frequently, with grid operators being reluctant to build double the generation and transmission capacity for just a few hours per year when it's super cold across a wide area.
As someone who works on this issues with the very policymakers you are referencing, oh they HAVE considered this. In fact, this is among the reasons that the switch to heat pumps is delayed.
Heat pumps can have back up electric heating elements to provide the heating in the extremes. You get a more resilient system than gas. If you have an oil based system, that's worse. There is no good reason to have an oil furnace nowadays.
Sorry if I'm misunderstanding, but wouldn't the backup electric heating elements require, well, electricity to function?
I'm no fan of gas, but the idea of losing heating, phone service (the old copper wire systems could function even in a blackout), the ability to cook (since gas stoves are being phased out), and the ability to travel (EVs and some trains) because a transformer exploded is kinda scary. Like, we're putting all our faith in a system that is routinely knocked out by errant tree branches.
Maybe we could do buried lines, but given infra costs in the US that sounds... expensive. Someone in another thread mentioned heat reservoirs of some kind, but I have no idea how realistic that is. Even if it buys a few extra hours, that'd improve things dramatically.
From the sound of it, you're far more familiar with specific legislation than I, so maybe I'm totally off and all this has been taken into account. But having experienced an extended blackout and my family realizing we couldn't even boil water, I'm apprehensive to say the least. IMO it'd be nice to move away from fossil fuels without betting lives on ConEd doing repairs in a timely fashion.
Ye ... one would have thought that JIT delivery would have gone out of fashion after Covid messed everything up.
With e.g. wood pellet heating the energy is stored in your home already. No amount of tree branches falling in the wrong places will make you freeze to ice.
https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/wood-and-pellet-heating
In other words the same situation as when you have a natural gas furnace: the electricity goes out and your furnace no longer operates.
Friday night, we had a several hour power outage as the temps dropped to 10F.
So, fired up the diesel generator (runs off the same fuel as the oil furnace) and had no problem heating the house. Our neighbors with their heat pumps spent a very chilly and uncomfortable night, which could have turned deadly had the power not been restored when it was.
Heat pumps require a considerably larger and more expensive generator, well outside of the reach of most people to buy and keep in good service.
Wood, gas, and oil are all much better than heat pumps in this regard, as even a solar battery can provide enough power so you can survive events like these.
Heat pump are good on average, but have really bad failure modes in this regard.
A pellets heated water system will need power to circulate the water so that won't work.
The gasoline power generator needed to power a pellets furnace is way smaller than for a heat pump system. Like 200W vs 10kW.
I meant more inline with "you got the energy in your house already".
The problem with that is..like you mentioned, it still uses electricity.
Oil can't explode. Oil can be carried in as low tech as a pail and stored in an equally low tech tank (where a gas pipe doesn't exist or could fail, where a propane bottle requires a lot more infrastructure).
And these are valuable even in developed areas with gas pipes, because it's always valuable to have that flexability to scrounge up milk jugs and drive them in your car, or a bike, when things aren't all perfect. Just on principle even if you never have to do it.
Similarly, there are reasons why the best way to distribute the heat around the building is actually not any form of hot water or air but ancient steam.
I still look forward to outfitting a house with a fancy buried ground glycol loop heat pump and in-floor water, not oil fired steam, but that's because I can afford to be impractical and I don't kid myself that it's anything else.
Their capacity drops from 100% at 23℉ to 76% at -13℉ so you would want to go with a slightly bigger system than you would in a place that doesn't get so cold.
The source is unfortunately both pay-walled and in Danish, but this engineer has built a cheap system that is on the way to getting commercialized. I'm definitely going to invest in it for my heat pump, as he claims it pays for itself in just 3-5 years: https://ing.dk/artikel/genbrugsplast-viden-vand-ingenioer-pa...
That could be enforced by building code, or by having a monetary incentive to those who have such a system, or a monetary penalty to those who use power on high demand days (although Texas taught us that people don't understand 'prices rise when goods are scarce', and instead see it as 'company jack's prices when I need it the most').
You can use a heat pump to bring the water up to 180 degF, a fail safe mixing valve to use it to produce 120deg water for the baths and taps, and a heat exchanger for radiant heating loops.
It's much more cost effective than batteries to the extent that your energy use is driven by heating demands. If the tank is inside the building envelope the lost heat from imperfect insulation still heats the space too.
Unless we do something about it. Better isolation. More renewables + storage and nuclear power.
Continuing to use fossiles is not a viable option.
Are the businesses that enroll in this program generally large consumers of electricity such that their curtailment would make a bigger difference than an ordinary consumer or can any business, no matter the size, enroll in this program? Also, what do the payments they receive in exchange look like?
Some utilities offer $3.25 per kW of load curtailed.
https://www.energy.gov/eere/femp/demand-response-and-time-va...
They probably didn't have to close, but on a night like last night (-20C and 30kt winds) it wasn't worth staying open.
Yahoo redistribution: https://www.yahoo.com/now/eastern-us-power-grid-orders-01261...
Bloomberg URL was submitted per HN Guideline: "Please submit the original source."
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/gridmonitor/dashboard/electr...
Earlier: https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/local/2022/12/23/why-t...
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/gridmonitor/dashboard/electr...
Extreme weather events are actually very predictable the question is do you build resilience for these rare events? If not you get 1953.
Most of us will manage power cuts just fine.
I guess that's not Europe.
[0] https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/17/texas-power-grid-fai...
"In August 2020, hundreds of thousands of Californians briefly lost power in rolling blackouts ..."
https://abcnews.go.com/US/california-blackouts-power-grid/st...
Several times here and elsewhere I've seen comments from Europeans mentioning they use 5-6 kWh per day which is average to a little above average for their country and wondering how Americans average 29 kWh per day.
Almost invariably, when I cannot figure out how the heck one can get by on 5-6 kWh per day, since I use at least 10 kWh in the early summer when it is warm enough to need no air conditioning and cool enough to not need any cooling or fans and ask for details, I get the same answer.
That answer is that they are using gas for house heating, water heating, clothes drying, and cooking, leaving only a computer or two, a fridge, a few lights, and maybe a TV to be powered by electricity. Americans are far more likely to have an all electric household.
When comparing energy use instead of just electrical use Americans still average higher then Europeans but it is no longer a huge difference.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/berlin-kicks-of...
I'm old and by my family's standards 65" diagonal would be questionable at best, so I checked in the vicinity of 48", 43" and 50" only gets you down to 120-5 watts. Add probably not very many watts for whatever's supplying the signal and it doesn't sound like a big deal, although of course everything adds up.
https://hourlypricing.comed.com/live-prices/?date=20221223
The 1600-1700 hour last night saw $3.64/kWh, a 3700% jump over what non-RT users pay.
In theory, the winter storm should have umpteen thousand wind generators spun up nicely across large parts of the US.
In practice...TBD. I just powered down a few more-expensive, more-delicate, and/or more-power-hungry pieces of equipment. Be a good American and all. But also make it easier to get back up, if there's a blackout, with a damaging last-microsecond power glitch when that happens.
As for switching off stuff - conservation is always good, but what they really need are for the guys with two-story-tall electric arc furnaces and the like to dial things back.
It'd be interesting to see sourced data comparing them to data centres and crypto farms on a mean monthly total usage basis.
<https://www.chooseenergy.com/data-center/electricity-sources...>
Coal ranges from a high of 93% in West Virginia (not terribly surprising), to nil in CT, DE, MA, NJ, NY, RI, and VT.
Nuclear does contribute a lot, up to 50% (IL).
New York's hydro, Niagara Falls notwithstanding, is still only 17% of total (though NY is a large energy producer). Vermont is 48.2% hydro, 28.3% wind, and 10.2% solar, though it would be the smallest producer in the north-east.
Even the south-eastern states tend to use much less coal than I'd have thought.
This page shows a graphical depiction of generation sources for states. It's still a bit muddled, but several Eastern states are among the highest in renewables usage, with Vermont leading the country:
<https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/electricity-generation-by-...>
Original source is Visual Capitalist:
<https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/road-to-decarbonization-...>
Jpeg: <https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/...>
You know, it was only the largest battery in the world for like 30 years...