‘Bregret is widespread, much analysis assuming that public opinion is significant. But Britain is locked out of the EU and public opinion will change, potentially favouring the new status quo.

Path dependence is a crucial concept in institutional theory, predicting that constituencies stabilize politico-economic systems. These constituencies may be the SMEs who benefit from post-Brexit deregulation, the fishermen who have better access to British waters and/or the low-skilled workers who enjoy reduced competition with immigrants.

Whilst poor economic performance may characterize this equilibrium, initial reports associating Brexit with lower growth, this might not be as destabilizing as some predict. Given Britain has no plausible medium-term route back into the EU, the country will have to adjust.

There are few obvious comparisons with Britain, yet Turkey is relevant, the blocking of accession in the 2000s frustrating Turkish liberals. Britain may not become as illiberal as Turkey, yet, like Turkey, may be further from EU membership in 20 years.’