Musk’s Distraction Just One of Tesla’s Problems

The problems stated in the article are real, but marginal. The underlying problem is that Elon overhypes in epic fashion, and hopes his promises are fulfilled. Sometimes this works. As the article points out, he made electric cars fast and stylish. He made reusable rocket boosters.

But, and this is an enormous "but," he ran out of luck:

- Starlink is what gives SpaceX its valuation. But Starlink viability depends on many more 2nd gen satellites that are bigger and more expensive. Those depend on Starship for cost-effective launch. But Starship is turning out to be a Space Spruce Goose.

- Tesla's valuation, and bullish analyst targets like those from ARK, depends on robotaxi revenue, which depends on FSD. Nobody knows how to make FSD work. Nobody can say if or when it will work. Except Elon: It will work next year. In reality, Tesla is a car company and will get valued like every other car company, just like meat alternative companies are just food companies, and get the same valuation. Non-meat that tastes good is good for the planet, but it is still just food.

- He thought he could do an LBO, with no experience in LBOs, and "flip" Twitter, at a minimal loss compared to settling the suit against him, and maybe even a profit. Turns out, he can't. he is also stuck in the job of running Twitter. Nobody will be his meatshield for when it crashes, probably at the first interest payment, certainly by the second.

Elon ran out of luck. maybe he saw this coming and wanted Twitter as a way of shaping reality to extend his runway for his other hype-driven projects to mature. But now, none of that is working.

You’d think the “paper of record” would be interested in how the FBI interacts with Twitter.

But nope, just another Tesla hit piece. yawn

NYT is pretty biased against Elon and Tesla though. They both hate each other.