Downturn didnt even really start. Wait like 8 more months and put your seatbelts now.
Remember the "great resignation"? That was never a thing - people aren't leaving the workforce - it was just time-shifted demand for job switching that didn't happen during the pandemic, so that some transient numbers looked high.
What is this based on? Labor force participation rate[1] is still visibly lower than pre-pandemic levels.
Possibly only because it's still early. Unemployment doesn't lead up to recessions, it spikes months afterwards, and usually maxes out just after the recessions end: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
I thinks its going to be more like this for the next 8-12 months, until the fed stops raising interest rates, and then it will be a mad dash to get everything going again.
Currently, the fed is still saying December's CPI print (coming on January 12) may be high. But looking at the futures market, it seems like almost everything is down significantly and we might see the first CPI print of 0% MoM in a year. Is the fed keeping this narrative to temper the market and slow it down? Or do they know something we don't?
If January 12 shows 0% or even negative MoM, it's possible interest rates could come down in 2023.
if you're employed you still need to be working hard, like always
if you're unemployed you still need to be seeking employment, like always
so, why do i care about the economy? is there something i'm supposed to be doing about it?