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Comment by Jerry2 | Hacker News Reader

Taiwanese local elections from 2022 [1] are an indications that there won't be any need for a full-scale Chinese invasion. China is patient and they'll keep on influencing politicians and citizens of Taiwan until they acquiesce to Chinese rule. America's hegemony is on its last legs and being a massive thorn in China's side will not that advantageous anymore to Taiwan. The odds are pretty high that Taiwan will avoid the faith of becoming another Ukraine.

[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-votes-loca...

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That's complete nonsense, every poll over the past 30 years has shown a constantly increasing number of Taiwanese don't want to be part of China. China's behaviour in Hong Kong will only likely strengthen that view.

See the chart here: https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/09/02/three-reasons-...

You should look at the source for that chart. Not sure why grid.news decided to do this, but the original chart[0] actually has 7 categories. grid.news left some of those out and (combined?) some others? Anyways I think the full data tells a pretty different story...

There does seem to be recent (~2018) in support for independence. But the interesting thing is there was actually a shift towards more support for unification right before that. It's also probably important to take into account the methodology[1] and the low sample sizes corresponding with the largest shifts

[0]: https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963

[1]: https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/upload/44/doc/6965/%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%8...

The original chart https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/upload/44/doc/6963/Tondu202206.jpg shows even more the movement away from unification with China.

The lack of support for "Full Independence" rather than the Status Quo of effective independence they have now is usually explained by people not choosing a policy that provokes China into attack.

That’s exactly it. There’s interviews with the the president saying effectively that. A reporter tried to get her to say it on record, and she effectively said there’s no need. They de facto independence. No need to provoke an attack

I don't know what you're trying to imply with that link. The vast majority of Taiwanese don't want to be part of China.

One politician's failed attempt at using fear-mongering about imminent Chinese to get elected does not imply the Taiwanese want to become part of China.

We can all see what happened in Ukraine. The country is well on the way to being a smoking crater, they barely have a power grid, they've lost 10% of their land and something like 20% of their population have become refugees. We have yet to see the ramifications of pouring weapons into the 2nd most corrupt country in Europe but it is unlikely to be pretty either. Their economy is probably an ex-economy. If things go really wrong it is plausible that they will get nuked.

Compare that Hong Kong, where life sucks but, end of the day, it isn't a war zone. Not as civilised as it once was, but still a respectable city.

At the end of the day, there are some very difficult decisions to be made by Taiwan. Integration into China is an option that they will at least have to consider. It is a terrible option. It may be the best option they have. In their shoes, I'd be wargaming ditching the US and negotiating some sort of protectorate deal with China. Probably thinking very hard about trying to be grandfathered in as some sort of neutral Switzerland. War is still just as horrific as it ever was and being at war with the world's most industrial superpower is a very bad plan A.

Are you Taiwanese? You sound like a Star Wars imperialist making decisions for a local planet in their stead.

No, I'm Australian. What do you think the best path forward is for the Taiwanese?

Independence

That isn't really a path, that is a destination - how do you want them to keep their independence? Because if the plan is to sit on China's border as a staunch, militarily aligned US ally that is a plan with some very obvious risks - especially in light of what happened to Ukraine.

In fact, the only way that ends well for Taiwan is if China experiences some sort of collapse. Possible, but not really a good strategy.

Whatever the Taiwanese decide themselves.

I agree we should be supporting whatever it is the actual people of these countries want. Online discourses about what other countries should do drive me nuts

If we had let the people decide in Ukraine, we probably wouldn't be at war now. Zelenskyy ran on and was largely elected because of a platform of making peace. And he kept his word once elected and negotiated a peace deal with Putin. It was the US and NATO that stepped in to break that apart when it was just about to be signed.

The people of Ukraine clearly supported peace and we should have respected the people's will

All 'peace' with Russia temporary they will only use it to rebuild there forces and attack again.

Why should anyone believe a word from a Russian peace agreement is actually going to be honoured?. They already previously promised to respect Ukraines sovereignty and to never invade it but they went ahead and did it anyway.

Russia is not a good faith actor, and you cannot treat it as one.

I generally agree, but they've been extremely clear that this is about NATO expansion. And NATO has actually made multiple promises to NOT expand to the point of Russia's border but has made those exact expansions 3 times in the past decades. Everything Russia's done has pretty much been a direct response to this. The primary ask of the peace deal was basically just that Ukraine doesn't join NATO (something which at the time was unpopular anyways). Add to that that Joe Biden (who was the head of the US's Russia's strategy under Obama) has been pretty explicit about everything since 2014. Their primary goal is to weaken Russia. That's exactly what this proxy war is and exactly why we keep sending so much "aid". That's also why in September 66 countries representing most of the world's population asked "all sides" to resume peace talks. They didn't just mean Russia and Ukraine...

Americans need to own up to their role in this (no, I'm not a Russia apologist)

> but they've been extremely clear that this is about NATO expansion

So? it doesn't matter what Russia thinks, Ukraine is a sovereign country that can join NATO if it wants, just like other former Warsaw pact countries they all probably have a very good reason.

> And NATO has actually made multiple promises to NOT expand to the point of Russia's border but has made those exact expansions 3 times in the past decades.

This is actually false, NATO has never made this promise, there is time just after the fall of the Soviet Union that people claim this was made but the person who was there at the time disagrees, you can read about that here.

https://theconversation.com/ukraine-the-history-behind-russi...

> Everything Russia's done has pretty much been a direct response to this.

I agree thats it's very likely that everything Russia has done has to do with either perceived slights (that dont actually exist) or imperialism.

> The primary ask of the peace deal was basically just that Ukraine doesn't join NATO

The reason Russia doesn't want Ukraine joining NATO is so that they can try this again in the future, Ukraine needs solid military alliances (even if not NATO) that mandate boots on the ground.

> That's exactly what this proxy war is and exactly why we keep sending so much "aid"

Our "aid" actually stops Ukrainians being killed and tortured, but if your all for letting Ukraine been steam rolled and genocided by Russia you wouldn't want any "aid" sent I guess.

> Americans need to own up to their role in this (no, I'm not a Russia apologist)

I'll take your word for it but every single sentence so far has been pretty much straight pro Russian so don't be surprised if I find it not believable.

If your not a Russian apologist I take it you want Russia to leave Ukraine (including Crimea) and for war crimes proceedings to begin against the Russians who are committing war crimes in Ukraine?.

> And he kept his word once elected and negotiated a peace deal with Putin. It was the US and NATO that stepped in to break that apart when it was just about to be signed.

This is nonsense. Zelenskyy is on record saying the opposite and blaming Putin for not accepting the peace offering and also it’s obvious Putin started the war. Nobody else did

"America's hegemony is on its last legs"

On the contrary, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has strengthened America's hegemony massively by showing the world how weak Russia is and how good the US's military and intelligence are.

"Taiwan will avoid the faith of becoming another Ukraine."

By just rolling over for China?

Overall you seem pretty pro-CCP.

> On the contrary, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has strengthened America's hegemony massively by showing the world how weak Russia is and how good the US's military and intelligence are.

Just checked my calendar again, it is 2022, not 1992. The US has a single challenger in this entire world, it is China. How strong/weak is Russia is irrelevant.

Russia likes to think it was a challenger to the US, and the US thought it was also until now. It took Russia's abysmal showing in the Ukraine invasion to show the world just how irrelevant Russia really is.

KMT simply have a better ground game when it comes to local elections. After 40 years of single-party rule, they are still the Good Ol’ Boys of local politics. People care more about DPP’s policies nationally. The electorate still overwhelmingly reject unification.

Oh I see and the reason their military budget is greater than the sum total of all their neighbors is because of what? Worried about the Mongols?

Same question, why the US has to spend 800 billion $ a year? worried about an invasion by Mexico?

That military budget got criticized by many Chinese. With a comparable GDP to the US, the CCP constantly refuses to further increase its military spending. As a result of such policy failure, its defense budget is just about 20% of the US one.

The question stands, irrespective of what legacy or current dysfunction the US is suffering from. And Taiwan Invasion is the logical answer. There is really no other reason. Just look at US struggling to even raise a single Division of troops in Europe to support Ukraine. If they cant do it in Europe, there is no way they are a serious threat as far away as Taiwan.

> military budget is greater than the sum total of all their neighbors is because of what

Because PRC has greater population and GDP than rest of region combined, of which she spends less than 2% on defense, less than most of her neighbours, less than what America wants NATO allies to spend on, and now less than JPs revised budget. All in all, too modest.

If it was true that this still was the CCP’s main strategy for Taiwan, it would have been a relief. This was the policy before Xi’s ascension. Unfortunately, Xi isn’t very bright or as patient as his predecessors.

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