The more metrics you track, the less you know
breakingpoint.substack.com
breakingpoint.substack.com
The problem that we were trying to solve, well, we had already solved it about 3 years ago, yet the team was still expanding, and our product managers kept spitting out new (mostly useless) project ideas.
One of the main areas of focus was metrics. Leadership was obsessed with metrics, we measured everything. Not just plain empirical metrics (like # clicks), but also very complex metrics, theoretical models that we had data scientists work on, etc. At some point maybe 25% of the team worked on metrics related stuff, it was crazy.
Why were they doing this? Was it only to keep us busy, so that the team can continue to grow? Or maybe they were desperately trying to find metrics by which they could prove the team was actually still doing meaningful work? I don't know.
At some point I left, and moved on to a much smaller team. This team was working on a brand new product, one that customers actually pay money for!
One of the first things I said to my new product manager was "so, what metrics do you care about? how do you measure success?".
He was taken aback by my question. He seemed genuinely perplexed. He paused for a few seconds, then said "metrics? What do you mean by 'metrics'? I look at revenue, when the line goes up I'm happy".
I thought it was... insightful.
Want to get promoted as an engineer? Work on something BIG (even if no one asked for it). Want to get promoted as a manager? Get more people on your team (even if you don't need them). Want to get promoted as VP? Better re-org everything so people know you exist (even if re-orgs happen every year). And this problem gets compounded by the fact that the people who are best at playing this game end up making decisions that impact everyone else.
I often wonder if something can be done about this, or is it like a natural law when it comes to big corporations.
If only we had metrics to solve this!
Ambitious people who recognize the game will play it to advance their career regardless of how it might affect the long term prospect of the company or products.
Generally, a company culture that is more focused on delivering tangible value, and ability to recognize and fix behaviors that optimize for short term/career gaining behavior will succeed in keeping this in check. This gets much more difficult to do in larger companies and organizations though.
Maybe its some kind of "scale disease"; some natural law that will make larger companies incapable of innovation the bigger they get.
I don't think any of the greats in the space (Jobs, Gates, etc) likely looked at any of these dashboards once.
That revenue metric is a trailing indicator. Metrics that give insight on whether users are having a good experience can lead revenue metrics significantly. Also this may be orthogonal to what you're talking about, but operational metrics are useful to understand costs (eg. if every new feature increases memory usage, eventually that will have a cost impact) and avoid volatility (eg. operational metrics often presage outages).
Oh, yeah. If you are able to discover those metrics, there's a billion-sized market opportunity to apply them. You will certainly be able to get a share of those.
We have some partial proxies, that stop working almost as soon as you start to make decisions based on them, and a huge bunch of snake oil. But the metrics you are looking for do not actually exist.
Well, that exists. Metrics that summarize those conclusions is what don't exist.
Metrics are a different thing from information. You can discover if people like your product, it just takes effort and isn't accessible to people without any knowledge on the subject.
- Revenue. - Subscription renewal / cancellation by monthly cohort. - Signups.
Say the second metric shows that you have a meaningful subscription drop-off after 18 months. By comparing that metric with the signup metric, you might be able to successfully foresee a revenue drop-off months before it materializes in the revenue metric alone, buying valuable time to figure out what to do.
Tracking a revenue metric alone always runs the risk of surprising you in real time when it ticks down and you have no idea why.
If that was your point, I misunderstood your comment. Yes, there are metrics that will help you predict problems. My comment wasn't about this.
The point I was trying to make, starting with my initial comment in the thread, is that there is a middle ground between "we're spending way too much time devising and implementing really fancy fine grained metrics" and "we only look at revenue".
My concrete example makes this point much better, and it seems like we're in agreement, so carry on :)
Dear reader, you may be unsurprised to learn that they had no fucking clue what they were supposed to be monitoring, or what they would do with the data. I declined the project.
Most, well almost all, metric systems I encountered in my life so failed misserably at that.
If you wire up a simple Datadog / Honeycomb dashboard with those, plus log exploring, you have added lots of value that will definitely be used, for a team that clearly has no idea why they need o11y.
I was joking with my GenZ teammate that we use s5s (servers) and macroservices. Can we make m6h (monolith) a thing too please?
At this point they seem like some sort of secret handshake of the Eleven Society of Extraordinary Consultants.
Those are two different requests. Autocorrect may be a step up in legibility from word length indicators, but it's a big step down from typos.
I just swiped "accessibility" with a somewhat-below-par amount of care and attention, and the output was "aggressively".
As a corollary, everyone knows they should change their minds based on new information, but shockingly few actually do or they only do it after it's too late. So if you find yourself working with/for someone who consistently and successfully changes their perspective based on new information, heavily weight keeping that person(s) around in your future plans.
Excellent insight
(sadly)
I think that was one of the key insights that united the early Agile people, the ones who pioneered it before it turned into a certification/consulting scam. Releasing early and often to actual users enables a level of discipline and humility that's hard to achieve otherwise. I think this was taken further by the Lean Startup folks, where you were supposed to be explicit about your hypotheses and then construct tests to validate/invalidate them. E.g.: https://rulez.io/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/validation-board...
I'm sorry it never caught on widely, but it has stuck with me. On any project I'm on, I structure the coding work such that as early as possible we can see if we are having the impact we aim for. That inevitably sucks early on as we put barely-adequate things in front of people and frequently get negative responses. But it really pays off over time, as you get to kill bad ideas early and use the savings to explore real solutions.
Sadly, I don't think this approach scales, at least with current management culture. In the short term, managers and execs benefit a lot more from seeming right than from being wrong in ways that lead to them eventually being right.
Without understanding, you will be making decisions based on gut feeling, which is ok if you are Jobs, and not ok if you don’t have a magical vision for the product that will be a success.
I think of it as evolution. If you want to rely on luck - don’t track anything, let the natural selection work. If you want to control your destiny, think very hard about what you track and what you do when numbers change.
I saw both negligence of metrics and mindless obsession with useless ones, with the same results - frustration
If you set monitors on E2E perf metrics, you don’t even have to rely on your customers telling you either.
They are not perfect, but without them it is virtually impossible to know what is going on.
Problem is solved in the second sentence:
>It’s a mistake to ignore the people that make those businesses work,
True.
>but you need to understand the numbers to know how the business is doing.
False.
You need people who understand the business even more so without exact numbers, who can hands-down outperform those who rely on metrics instead.
That's why they were called "businessmen".
Otherwise, you see GMV is down, and you don't and won't understand why.
I think there’s also an issue of layers of decision making and the requisite metrics at that layer. Abstraction is useful in business just as it is in operating a car.
I am stealing this, I called them "Opportunities & Firefighting" & "Heath / KPI Metrics" in a recent post
Don't be data-driven, be data-informed
You will often see managers create metrics for the things they want to improve, without realizing that making a metric without measuring the countervailing metric is creating an incentive to throw the countervailing metric in the shitter. A good example of this is call centers which measure the time of call resolution without measuring customer satisfaction with the call. This is how you end up with a low quality, high volume call center. You can do the opposite by measuring only satisfaction and not speed. Now, maybe what your business needs is high volume, low quality, but that should be a choice you make. The problem with not measuring the countervailing metric is that nobody (officially) cares about how bad that metric gets. So, if you have a tradeoff situation, you automatically get an extreme even though that may not be the most profitable place on the spectrum. Perhaps your call center would be better for the company if it was volume 9 quality 2 instead of volume 10 quality 1, but if you only optimize for volume you can't make that choice.
This even applies to metrics you really want to go up, things like sales and profit. A manufacturing company that optimizes only for sales while ignoring manufacturing metrics will hire salespeople in preference to manufacturing workers until the inability to deliver product starts affecting sales. That might sound like a nice problem to have, but it can be a real problem, and perhaps sales 9 manufacturing 2 instead of sales 10 manufacturing 1 would result in better sales next year. It's better to have metrics which allow you that choice.
Unfortunately managers rarely have incentives to do it. Why invest in being more objective if it lowers the perceived value of your successes? Your bullshitting peer that isn't doing this will get promoted instead of you.
It can also be hard to even understand what are you sacrificing and why. I recently had an example where product manager was trying to improve conversion while another team was tapping into cheap low-quality traffic. PM always looked at a global conversion and kept wondering why the conversion was dropping despite his best efforts.
I noticed a huge problem at a FAANG in a 40 person team and proposed the design of a single metric that incorporated all costs including countervailing metrics.
There were no takers for the project. The senior manager leading 4 teams of 40 engineers told me privately.
Your proposal is relatively cheap to implement and I can't ask for more HC for this and doesn't help me with empire building.
Your metrics will make the team achievements look smaller and weaker.
Your metrics will anger many of the teams, because the team switches the metric to target each half. In your example, targeting customer throughput one half and customer satisfaction the next half thus running a merry go round. The team has become comfortable switching metrics each half and it is simple work.
If your metric is set as a target, the engineering problem becomes a lot harder and ICs will be upset.
So, my proposal was canned.
TBF, it can be a justifiable POV from a /r/antiwork POV. Why work terrible hours to make someone else rich!
Obviously for core business metrics there's a direct cost associated with measuring, validating, and maintaining access, but even for more technical metrics that's true.
The issue is, without a comprehensive metric collection and analysis system tracking multiple metrics, troubleshooting reduces down to a red light / green light level, which is not super useful. Is your site "down" because your uplink has gone offline, your servers, or is it your metric collection system throwing a false positive?
Same can be said for business metrics - is revenue down from customer acquisition, deal size, or orders per customer? If you don't track more metrics than the minimum, it's hard to tell.
You can measure how correlated metrics are to key metrics. You can ask questions like "Does the rate that my app crashes affect the amount of money people spend when using the app?"
Too many metrics can be a problem but it's not the real problem. The real problem is choosing metrics without any regard for the decisions they're supposed to inform.
When you understand that the purpose of all measurement in business is to reduce uncertainty for a decision to be made, everything comes into focus, and you'll have a natural constraint on your scope of measurement.
A dashboard should not distract from what you're trying to do. It should show only the information you really need [1] so that you can focus on actually driving.
I worked at one company where we had so many signals on ours that it looked like the dash of a 747 [2] to me. Pilots go through a lot of training and tests to show that they understand those and how to respond to different scenarios! Software startups are a bit more seat-of-pants than that.
We can have dashboards for different purposes and roles, for different activities we want to drive. But the dashboards should focus on use. And if there are metrics that don't fit on any of the dashboards, they're not about driving anything - maybe consider scrapping them.
[1] https://www.pinterest.com/pin/58054282668632186/
[2] https://www.reddit.com/r/cockpits/comments/ayr4z7/boeing_747...
I think it’s important to divide “internal” / operational metrics, which a team monitors but doesn’t expect anyone else to care about (say, error rate of the DB or some internal ops task latency) vs. “external” metrics which are rolling into OKRs / KPIs or otherwise being reported out as health metrics of the team.
I struggle to believe that most companies with 50-100 metrics are actually using most of them as external metrics.
"The key is that any given person shouldn’t be using any more metrics than absolutely necessary to do their job well."
There are a lot of pathological metrics patterns. I used to work at a FAANG/MANGA that prided itself on being metrics driven; the challenge was that most people suck at picking metrics. The most common anti-pattern is choosing metrics based on what is easy to measure.
The most valuable metrics I have encountered are metrics that measure directly your teams success in their stated mission. The problem is a lot of teams have bad missions. I tried to tell every team that I worked with, that their mission should read like a problem statement not like a technology statement. For instance, instead of saying that “we are the team that owns the foo service“, the team needs to think about the business problem that inspired the foo service, and make solving that business problem their mission statement.
Once you have clarity on the business, problem that your team exists to solve, then you can start thinking about metrics that measure how well you are solving that problem. These are the most valuable kinds of metrics.
Now, the thesis of the article was that teams had too many metrics, and that this was bad. Once a team has clarity of mission, they have to implement technology to accomplish the business problem that is their mission. After you have clear metrics that tell you how well you were accomplishing your mission, then you need metrics to tell you how well your technology is functioning. Do not mix the two kinds of metrics. It is a happy coincidence if the technology functioning well directly, corresponds to how well you are accomplishing your business mission. More likely, the business metrics and the technology metrics need to be kept separate. You need metrics around the technology so that you can predict whether you are nearing a problem, detect whether you have a technology problem, And identify the nature of the technology problem that you have. Good metrics around technology will allow you to do all these things. You should not add metrics arbitrarily, but you should analyze your technology for where it is likely to break and prioritize adding metrics in that fashion.
My last point is about team just functions. Other anecdotes in this comments thread have described organizations that lacked clarity of mission or that had completely solve. Their mission yet did not pivot to a new mission. In those cases, you end up with a lot of make work, and that make work may consist in part of implementing new metrics. This is just plain org dysfunction and not really a metrics problem.
Their thesis was one should devise a metric to solve a problem, and discard it once the problem was solved. Then on to the next problem.
This advice covers 80-99% of actual bugs. Real bugs don't reappear once fixed -- if they do, it means they were never fixed. Metrics designed for a bug that was fixed may be relevant but specifically ARE NOT TARGETED at any new bugs.
Though all of this really highlights the core problem with metrics and dashboards and such in the corporate world: if the problem were a problem and not just a convenient political puppet, we'd have solved it by now instead of talking about what thinking about solving it looks like.
Metrics are simply knowledge. But knowledge isn't power.
Understanding is Power.
That is, consuming the metrics dots isn't enough. The difference making comes from understanding the broader context, as well as the connections between the dots.
Believing in "Knowledge is power" is a trap.
Edit: I don't mean to say the pipeline is not important, it is required, but the outcome is intelligence
X% of systems have metrics. Y% of uncovered systems get added to metrics in Q2. Z% of metrics captured meet their SLO.
Meanwhile the SLOs themselves were pulled out of thin air because management only talked to upper management and not actual users.
You can thus have thousands but hardly ever will you have thousands all red.
And when you create a new metric, TDD style, the company will not be able / designed / changed to make it green.
There are some metrics that are binary good/bad and I agree that in those cases you should just have an alert.
Information is meant to help you make a decision: should we add more servers, should we end this service, can we sell this feature, are our customers satisfied? Every metric should help you answer a question. Ask yourself, what decisions are you trying to make and what information would help you make that decision?
This bias is ubiquitous: metrics, unit testing, abstractions, startup funding, documentation, security, etc. All of those typically start at zero. All of those are perceived as "good", therefore more is always better. You rarely find people with the balls to say "we need less documentation" or "we invested too much effort in security". Kudos to author for recognizing the same issue with metrics.
And he's right: the solution is to recognize our bias and for things where cost is hard to measure just assign some cost to it. Though instead of million dollar value suggested by author you should just treat cost as exponential.
Having 3 metrics is better than 0.
But having 50 metrics is way worse than 3.
In fact, having 50 metrics is likely way worse than 0.
But doesn’t the “ What About the Details?” section acknowledge that you will many of the other metrics later anyway for different people, projects and problems? Isn’t the message then “You should know which metrics are relevant to you and only look at them?”
"Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted, counts."
To be able to understand your funnel in a marketplace you’ll need to at least track profile and product views & click-throughs in addition to the metrics mentioned. How can you possibly tell what’s wrong when all you have is a average GMV metric going down?
Tracking metrics because you think they might be useful in the future for diagnosing other problems doesn't make sense with modern systems as dynamic queries are so fast.
But to do that, you need to understand the system producing the metrics.