> USA probably won't have an effective arsenal within a century.
If other countries joined, it would be a great outcome.
If other countries joined, it would be a great outcome.
> If other countries joined, it would be a great outcome.
Why the optimism? Without MAD, it's nearly certain that we'd have a world war at some point in time. Sooner or later, it will surely happen. If you think it won't happen, or won't cost millions of lives, or won't employ re-developed nukes eventually, please tell me why you think so. (No sarcasm.)
* Several concurrent arms races in the Middle East, Asia, and Europe
* A high intensity conflict in Ukraine
* China threatening a land invasion into Taiwan
MAD might be preventing a country like Poland from jumping into the Ukraine conflict, but more likely it’s because of its involvement in NATO.
I think collective security organisations are a far more potent force for peace than nuclear weapons. If countries abided by their security agreements in WW2, then we’d have nipped the entire thing in the bud.
I mean... Only one of those is an actual fight. And there MAD doesn't apply because the defender doesn't have the Assured Destruction capability needed.
Before MAD, for thousands of years, all the big populations were shaped/educated/pushed into limitless sacrifice for the motherland.
> collective security organisations are a far more potent force for peace than nuclear weapons
I think if you take MAD away, the "collective security organisations" would quickly break into good ol' alliances.
Which is to say, possible future proxy wars between the great powers where MAD will supposedly restrict conflict intensity. See below.
> A high intensity conflict in Ukraine
What's going on in Ukraine is a bog standard cold war style proxy war. The NATO plan is basically to turn it into another Afghanistan for the Russians. It's the exact thing that MAD is meant to keep from spilling over into a world war between the principals.
> China threatening a land invasion into Taiwan
This is more interesting. US conventional forces almost certainly have no hope of beating China that close to home. Therefore, any effective US response would require nuking China and China is presumably deterring that with their nukes. There is an argument to be made here that a non-nuclear Chinese military would be in Taiwan's best interests. However, I see no scenario where either a nuclear or non-nuclear China and a non-nuclear USA is in Taiwan's best interests. So while the MAD case isn't the best case for Taiwan here, it's also not the worst.