The base for larceny is 6.
That gives 36 just based on the money, and up to 46. That's 15 years on the low end, and runs off the end of the table ("life") on the high.
In the federal system there is 15% time off for good behavior, so 15 years means 12.75 actually served.
I'm assuming here the counts run concurrently or group (which I think is more typical than sequential, and also gives lower numbers). The judge can depart from the guidelines and give a lower sentence but SBF is not in a good place right now.
https://www.ussc.gov/guidelines/2021-guidelines-manual-annot...
1) Wire fraud: 121-151 months
2) Securities fraud: 6-36 months base (there are multipliers apparently)
3) money laundering: 70 month average is all I could find
4) Campaign finance: seems to be more monetary based
Not sure how a plea deal/severity of charges would change this though. Ex: when you are committing billions in fraud that probably has different guidelines than the average securities fraud of a few million or whatever.
Anyways, my prediction is that if SBF is convicted, he is going away for all time.
Let's look at one particular example, the stop the steal scam. Thousands of people were tricked in to donating to the ringleaders of an impossible political cause based on false claims, and none of them are going to jail for that in particular. You could find dozens of similar examples just by keeping an eye on the news, but nobody thinks about it because a certain type of con with victims that professionals can't empathize with has become normalized.
Once Epstein and his crimes were splashed all over the news he was looking at a much worse outcome.