Joomla and Drupal both have their strong points, but nowadays most people will just install WordPress with a 1-click installer and add some plugin/theme that does whatever WordPress doesn't do out of the box.

It's nothing new and both project will stay alive, although with minimal updates. I mean, phpFusion is still alive after all these years -- just with a much smaller user base.

Eventually, I suspect, WordPress will go the same way and we'll have another shiny hammer, that makes every problem look like a nail.