Holmes got 11 years in Federal prison for her first offense for financial crimes.. that is a long sentence. SBF obviously won’t get life behind bars, nor should he.
Is it really that obvious? I know the Federal Sentencing Guidelines have some wiggle room and gray areas, but I do know for financial crimes the length of sentence is largely proportional to the amount of money involved - not linearly proportional, mind you, but given that around 8 billion was stolen, definitely seems like life is on the table.
That said, I agree with your "nor should he" statement. The money is gone, and SBF rotting in jail for the rest of his life isn't going to bring it back. I do think he deserves to spend a long, long time in jail, but will it really have any more significant deterrent effect if he gets out at, say, age 65 vs. dying in jail?
If you squint, you can maybe get to 37-40 points if they do get him for over $1 billion -- which is a serious sentence! But more on the order of 19-24 years.
Federal sentencing is actually really easy to predict. You can almost always ignore the proclamations of “could be 130 years” since those are often only for serious repeat offenders and tons of sentencing enhancements.
Skip down to the process part of this post:
https://prisonprofessors.com/calculating-holmes-prison-sente...
Once we know what SBF is going to be charged with, we’ll know what his eventual sentencing range will be if he’s convicted. For all of the conspiracy theorizing and dramatics, it boils down to a very boring sentencing chart.