Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal
robkhenderson.substack.com
robkhenderson.substack.com
This tidbit reminds me of a similar anecdote (that my experience aligns with) re: the modern upper class that wearing a $2k Rolex or driving a $70k BMW is frowned upon. But instead they have eccentric "hobbies" requiring $10ks of of equipment, inclusive of "needing" $10k viking stove/range, and $10k subzero fridge/freezer in your kitchen because you are a "foodie" and doing a $500k home Reno because you have good architectural taste and style. They probably still own a $70k Volvo (or now Tesla) anyway :-). In these scenarios I think it's because the $2k watch or $70k car is too easily attained by lower classes that they are no longer considered signals by the upper classes. However blowing $500k renovating a perfectly livable home, or $10k on an appliance you could spend as little as $1k on.. is not.
Another countersignal that the article points in the direction of is level of professional vs casual attire in the workplace. My friends and I are far enough in our careers that personally I've worn sneakers to work for the last 10 years, no business slacks, and sporadically tuck in my collared shirt. The last round of job searching doing zoom interviews, I wore my hoodie for half the calls. If I had done this while job searching out of college, during my internship, or at my first job.. I would not be where I am today.
I thought the cheapest Rolex is substantially more expensive. Am I wrong?
Before the 2020s era inflation you could definitely pick up a mens one used for $2k, like a Datejust model for example.
Likewise a $70k car is neither particularly rare or exotic now with how much the average car price has been pushed up by big trucks and EVs.
People love their pickup trucks.
The Tesla Model 3/Y range can easily run up above $70k with options now, and the bigger Tesla Model S/X is a six-figures vehicle!
Likewise, gas powered BMWs seem to have disappeared in the $30-40k range and pretty quickly get into the $50k+ range.
I certainly don't know many middle class people with 70k in savings to throw around, either everyone is doing a lot better than they otherwise expose or there's easy money on the table.
I think we'll see price corrections downward for cars over the next 5 years, as interest rates change. I've asked a handful of importers while I try and source a car from Japan, with the Japanese import market being hyper inflated. They've all suggested that during the pandemic, financed purchases were making up the majority of their sales. I imagine that's set to change as interest rates change and loans get harder to acquire.
Let's stick to the truck, though. F-150s are everywhere.
If I head to the Ford Canada website, an F-150 XL (the cheap one) is $39K before you get started. A Platinum brings you up to $87K, and the Limited brings you up to $98K.
The website is definitely NOT including taxes, licensing fees, financing fees, interest, etc.
I couldn't imagine paying that for a work truck. The trades are fairly well payed, but to that extent?
https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/kbb-atp-september...
Just for the sake of nitpicking, but going back to the BMW example, you could get a well-optioned Z4 in this range, which I would argue is rather exotic and will make heads turn, if not very expensive.
However you can get a lot of pretty surprisingly run of the mill vehicles at that price range as well, especially for at truck or EV. Like a Ford F-150, Tesla Model 3/Y, entry level Mercedes or BMW electric car, even a Ford Mach E, etc.
The slowing inflation, high interest rates and collapse of the economy in the coming 6-18 months will probably wind some of that back.
In specific areas such as cars, you had complete dislocations. For example used cars which normally depreciate 15-20%/year, instead inflated about 15%/year for 2 years.
Over the summer I traded in a 4 year old car at the end of its warranty of 85% of what I paid for it new. I probably could have sold private party and haggled harder to get closer to 90%+ Normally 85% is what you can expect to sell your car for right after you drive it off the lot on your second day of ownership.
This was a knock on effect of new car production shortages, and pent up demand from low 2020 sales and people having a lot of cash on hand.
Related to this you had dealers adding market (ADM) on not even luxury/exotic vehicles of $10-15k in some areas. So never mind not being able to negotiate a few $1000 off, people were paying sticker+$15k for new vehicles for the privilege of being able to buy one. And this was on top of the sticker prices ticking up over the course of the pandemic and related inflation.
So no, for many things, it was not "just a year of 11% inflation".
Are you not in the US? We haven't even had 10% inflation for all of the past year.
https://publish.manheim.com/content/dam/consulting/ManheimUs...
Why, back in my day, you could get a “stripper” model of a truck (my dad’s term for the most-basic-possible model with crank windows and a stick shift) for like $15,000. Now?
https://www.ford.com/trucks/f150/
Good luck getting off the lot for less than $40,000 for a full-size truck.
…though to give Ford some credit here:
https://www.ford.com/trucks/maverick/
They do still sell a truly cheap-and-cheerful truck. Will it tow much? No. Is it going to take you to the bottom of the Grand Canyon or whatever off-road macho fantasy? No. Will it get several bags of mulch back from Home Depot? Absolutely—which is what people actually use trucks for. (If that.)
Isn’t this conflating status signal with lifestyle?
The wealthy have always enjoyed expensive lifestyles and hobbies. In and of itself, expensive hobby equipment is not a status signal (it can be, of course, if you plaster it all over your personal social media)
Personally I don't think things that are 90% purchase/consumption (housing/renovations/appliances) are hobbies in the same way as photography/kitesurfing/gardening/cycling which may be expensive but have some sort of skill/learning/activity attached.
But people often conflate "investment" & consumption when its anything related to home renovation. I'd still argue these types of "hobbies" are 90% consumption, and for most of the people I know.. usually financed with loans.
No one I know with a $100k kitchen cooks any better than my poor immigrant grandmother did.
I also have a restaurant grade toaster. It costs quite a bit more than the usual toasters do. But the usual ones would always break after a year or two. The restaurant toaster makes better toast, and has worked fine for 25 years now. It was actually cheaper to get the restaurant grade one over the long haul.
I remember two stories among many:
He once told me he was upgrading the doorknobs and hinges in this house. The bill just for those items came to $45K.
We were both getting coffee in the office once, and he looked towards me and ask, “My socks cost more than everything you’re wearing.”
And he liked me.
That’s a strange thing to waste money on for signaling. It just showed the lack of understanding on marginal utility on commodity items.
I think you're showing the lack of understanding of marginal utility.
By the time you're spending $45k on doorknobs, $400 on socks might offer equal marginal utility per dollar.
That's kind of whats interesting about the modern economy is we can all express our preferences in how we spend. The bottom end has gotten much cheaper and the top end has gotten exponentially more expensive, and in many markets the middle has sort of disappeared.
This contrasts a lot with the 1950s boom era where there was a big thick middle end and not a huge range from bottom to top.
There is no such plain ladies’ fit t-shirt consistently offered anymore. Either tissue-thin and less than $20, or involves a silly print and/or ruffles and lace.
This enrages me so much. I hate cheap crap, but I equally hate over the top, necessary, expensive crap.
I prefer something well made, with minimal functions, for a middle price. But finding this is becoming increasingly rare as time goes on.
- Look at this, got me this tie for $1000
- Hah what a dummy you are, they sell them for 1200 two blocks away!
* Having professional landscapers plant grass and plants on an outdoor terrace of a penthouse apartment for $100k
* Growing a large vegetable garden from seeds & seedlings, from your vacation home outside the city
* Raising houseplants in your apartment windowsill
All three of these people may describe themselves as having green thumbs or being into gardening as a hobby...
I know some people would think $120 is a lot for a minidisc player since you can get a flash player for so much less. Other people would think it's a trivial amount of money. Like all these things it comes in multiple scales: back in the day there were people who would spend 50x that on audio gear (there are some $20,000 speaker sets that sound great)
I don't expect to impress anybody: the last person I showed my portable minidisc player was a professor in the music department who's won one more than one Grammy award and teaches sound engineering who I ran into at the bus stop and his comment is "God, how can you listen to something compressed like that?" ("... yeah, I've been wondering about some of the coding tools they use.")
We are probably going to have some people over for a party and I don't expect many people to notice the difference with the 5.1 DTS discs I have in my CD changer but I do.
I started watching Techmoan and similar YouTubers. I have some nostalgia for compact cassettes and saw a video where they used a Dolby S deck and metal tapes and made very good recordings... Hardware like that came in around the time I was in grad school and went into a hole so it was "better than I remembered". There are Dolby S decks on the market for prices that seem within reach but the metal tapes are like $40 a piece now.
Optimal cassettes might sound as good or better than minidisc but rewinding is a hassle. They still make cassette decks and tapes but they are much worse than what was made 30 years ago. With NetMD you can record audio from your computer to a MD the same way you do with a computer which is easy: there's something to say for media that let you record your own music so you aren't stuck with what got released on SACD or can find on vinyl (which isn't too bad.)
It still seems silly when I've got several devices in my backpack usually that can play music including the Tracfone I use for emergencies.
The nostalgia/quaintness of burning/updating a dozen or so minidiscs seems like an “fun”enough construct to build a deliberate ritual that outweighs the friction—similar to friction of making a pour over coffee helps force a nice 10min break and tends to limit number of cups/day to something reasonable. Either way, just more of a thought exercise at the moment.
Upstairs I have a home theater receiver, I also have one downstairs where the HDMI out is burned out but it is good for music. I have an XBOX ONE plugged upstairs and it works for games but it seems to get worse all the time as a media player, it doesn't even play CDs although it plays DVD and Bluray. Upstairs I have the minidisc player for stereo music and one of these
https://www.crutchfield.com/S-92WonNqYEjS/p_158CDPX355/Sony-...
which is connected to the receiver with an optical cable and is full of 5.1 DTS discs which I am a huge fan of. There are some good 1970s quad recordings such as Fragile by Yes but also a lot of good stuff in the the 2000-2010 period such as Supernature by Goldfrapp and some artists like Donald Fagan who always believed in multichannel. Like stereoscopic cinema I think a lot of people don't see a big difference but I like it a lot.
Sorry to jump in.
There is a 2003 documentary by the name "Born Rich".
This is about the children from the wealthy people and how they are coping with the boredom of being able (afford) to do anything.
Many are naturally isolated and invent obscure hobbies and life-styles not fitting their "wealthy statuses".
Not sure how it is changing in more responsible adulthood, when it is becoming their turn to manage the estate. I guess this is then mostly about turf-wars among relatives.
(edit: formatting)
See also the excellent Korean documentary "Squid Game"!
That’s mostly a lack of sufficient education and rearing to arm them with enough knowledge and grit to choose and tackle from an infinite number of problems to advance towards a possible solution. Most of those problems don’t take generational wealth scale money to make a dent into, but a tremendous amount of hard work for years and even decades without expectations of acclaim commensurate with their generational wealth background.
Which points out the other problem: most of them want (or are pushed since childhood to want) the acclaim accrued by their inherited wealth also attached to their efforts in whatever direction they choose. It’s why we get the dilettante phenomenon among them so much.
Tightly coupling wealth to accomplishment across generations is possibly a very leaky abstraction.
I worked for a company that sold products and services to sales managers. The CEO and his wife (who was also an owner of the company) lived in a house in Rochester that had the biggest kitchen I'd ever seen anyone actually use. We would have holiday parties there and it was clear cooking was a hobby they liked to but that entertaining is also a way to enjoy your status.
There are folks that are genuinely uninterested in social status, and it usually goes along with being uninterested in social relationships. Think of autistic/Asperger's individuals; certain psychopaths & sociopaths; people with schizoid, schizotypal, avoidant, or antisocial personality disorders; et al. No relationships = no status = no need to worry about social status and social signaling.
It's much like how where there's people, there's politics. Where there's social, there's status. Take away the social and you take away both the performance and the status.
But that’s not really relevant. From an individuals perspective there’s a big difference between keeping up with the joneses and focusing on what makes you happy.
Even if it turns out that what makes you happy is actually still correlated to your status and you’re not really a unique snowflake.
Expensive hobbies are not. I think they should be, but they're not.
Or Spending 5-10x on a $10k appliance where a $1-2k one would do. These people tend to get the whole set, so it's a good $30-40k worth of kitchen appliances that could easily be replicated for $5k total otherwise. Does a better fridge/freezer really help you cook better? Do even most experienced cooks get noticeable benefit of a $10k range or oven?
I cook a lot, I personally would like a higher quality stove - I’ve killed one before because I (an)use the broiler a lot (it wasn’t terribly old), but I probably would do an NXR or something. maybe in the $2k. Or a used Wolf/viking from one of the people you mention
I’d rather buy a nice oven than a bunch of shit appliances though. People love their air fryers, over the stove microwave, countertop oven, instant pot, etc…
On the margin, having a move-in ready home that's been renovated well enough recently enough, generically enough, ensures reasonable liquidity of being able to sell the home for a reasonable price reasonably quickly.
For many this means replacing some dated appliances, repainting, and strategic spending on a few items that may be out of style or more aged, like bathroom vanity or replacing a linoleum top.
Extravagant, expensive, specific renovations may actually detract because the general markets taste are not your taste and so you've either reduced the number of likely buyers, or half the universe of buyers are going to actually deduct value of your renovation because they may want to undo whatever you've done.
Spending $2k replacing a worn appliance or buying a $200 air fryer are two orders of magnitude off from the expenditure levels I am referring to.
This is the motivation I have to invest further in what already feels like a generally "move-in ready" home; my "move-in ready" is not others' "move-in ready", so my goal is to find all the objections and invest in making them less objectionable :)
If I were to spend $300k renovating my home, the value would increase by approximately $100k.
The only real increase in home value comes from additions which add bedrooms. If I were to spend money converting an attic, a basement, or adding an add-on, I'd probably come out even at the sale.
And renovations are quickly depreciating assets. I'm much better off doing that right before a sale. A new dishwasher will be an old dishwasher before too long.
I would love to see industry averages on if pre-sale renovations make any sense at all. Considering the outright financial expenses, possible financing, potentially weeks/months of organizing contractors, dealing with overages, delaying the house sale, yada yada.
If the work takes more than a week (so not just appliances, painting, etc) is there generally a positive expected return?
They must surely make sense, given that there are people who "flip" houses (buy a house, do a quick paint/bathrooms/kitchen renovation on it and sell it for a nice markup).
The average homeowner is unlikely to have any of those relationships or knowledge, so there are a lot more things that could go wrong that delay the project or cause costs to balloon. Maybe a lot of people mistakenly believe that renovating the kitchen for $20k will add $40k value to the house, but in practice, the project will cost $34k, take five weeks, and ultimately only raises the final sale price to $35k.
However a $70k car generally has a much better set of class leading accident avoidance & safety features than a $25k car which will generally be minimum legally required for compliance. A new car has a much different safety profile than a 10 or 20 year old car. Watching crash videos on YouTube is very illuminating as to how far we've come even versus a car from 2000.
Modern advanced cars will warn you about rear & front cross traffic, actively keep you from driving off the road if you fall asleep, emergency brake for obstacles, keep you from changing lanes into a car in your blind spot, and many other things that were pretty unheard of 10-20 years ago. My car even flashes lights and beeps at me if I am opening the door and it detects oncoming cars or bikes.
A $500k renovation of a home is usually financed and adds less than the $500k of value to the resale price to the homes (lets say, $400k to be generous), while costing north of $750k by the time all the payments are made. So $100-350k of waste, conservatively.
I highly recommend the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TikJC0x65X0
Actuarially as well, the value of a human life is so high that a few $1000 in safety options on a car for marginal increases in safety will almost always be worth it.
https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state...
Arguably the other thing you can do is live in a state with a 55~65mph max speed limit. Looking at the state level auto fatalities stats is pretty striking how much lower fatality rates are in the low limit / high traffic (and therefore low speed) northeast .. whether you measure per capita or per mile driven.
The most interesting but hard to measure metric would be per vehicle hour, I would suggest. Commutes are driven more by time than distance, and in congested areas people commute shorter distances at lower speed vs some of the super commutes people do at 75mph+. You can see this sort of reflected in the stats where the per capita fatality rates are 1/3 to 1/2 the level of the Deep South, however on a per-mile basis closer to 2/3. You can also see that the northeastern per-capita miles driven is 1/2 ..
Follow the incentives. You will NEVER see them show you the difference between like a 93 and 94 of a given model (tons of vehicles went from airbags optional to airbags standard over that year so that's basically what you'd be testing) because a single variable or low variable test doesn't get them the DARE-esque messaging and "look how far we've come" back patting that these sorts of old vs new comparisons are meant for. Watching a dummmy face plant into the steering wheel of a 93 OJ bronco and then do the same thing into the airbag of a 94 (to just pick one example) just doesn't scratch those itches the same way comparing vehicles that are half a dozen major engineering revisions and 20yr of model bloat apart from each other.
>Arguably the other thing you can do is live in a state with a 55~65mph max speed limit.
Eh, I think you're reading too much into it.
Speed limits don't reflect reality, anyone from the northeast will tell you that limited access highway speeds are predicated on traffic, weather and road conditions and 80mph middle lane speeds aren't uncommon pre and post commuting "hour" (in sarcasm quotes for obvious reasons).
Reducing potential for high speed traffic conflicts probably matters a lot more than you're giving it credit for. You almost never have cross roads just dumping traffic onto a state highway where traffic goes 70+ in the northeast. This is pretty standard once you get out of the beltway in the more rural states and account for a lot of avoidable crashes.
That’s empirically false. Toyota and Subaru both make 25k cars with vastly better active driver assistance features than Tesla, as shown by every independent test that’s ever been done.
Subaru specifically punches above their weight in terms of safety per dollar and given their close relationship with Toyota I could see them being similar.
If you open up the pricing tool on the cheapest Subaru wagon/SUV model, the Crosstek, and want all the active driver assist options, you quickly end up at the $30k top-tier "Limited" spec which is $31k after fees, and if you add any functional options/accessories (GPS nav, auto dim mirror, etc) is more like $35k.
Similarly their most famous model, the Outback may START at $28k, but if you want the trim with all the safety options, thats the $41k Touring. You can knock a few of the safety options off by going with the Limited for $36k (and add a few of the safety features on optionally to end up at $39k).
And I'm not even including markups, which dealers spent the last 2 years adding. Personally my mom spent 6 months hunting down a Subaru dealer who would sell her a car at sticker price after having her old one totaled in an accident. Then another 2 months waiting for it to arrive. This is probably over now, but again the $25k car is so rare as to almost be mythical.
But so does a kitchen rennovation.
> Having freezer space can save you thousands of dollars in food.
It can, if you use it that way. How many of the people buying these expensive kitches do?
On the contrary, if we had spent an additional 40k on our car, how much of a game changer would that have been and how long would it have lasted?
$40k for a kitchen is on the order of magnitude of getting all your appliances reasonably up to date, plumbing/fixtures, electrical and cabinetry/countertop refreshed, without anything being exotic or luxury. The bare bones one could probably refresh everything in the kitchen has to be easily $20k, so the incremental "above bare minimum spend" here is only $20k and therefore very reasonable.
That is a reasonable level of taking something outdated which is hard to market and making it up to date move-in ready and therefore quicker to sell.
To contrast for example in my experience, a Miele dishwasher for $800 washes dishes vastly better than a $400 GE. To the point it is significantly labor reducing. On the other hand, does a $10k subzero freezer/fridge keep my vegetables better than a $2k Samsung?
Most people underestimated how much of their homes value appreciating over the 5-20 years of ownership is purely the land value increases over the long term due to real estate inflation and the relative performance of their local markets. Ie - if all the condos in NYC went up 2x from 2004-2007, mine going up similarly isn't because I put fancy tiles in my toilet.
I'll take an awesome cook (my spouse in this case) and a modest kitchen, over a modest cook and an awesome kitchen any day.
Makes sense economically. Mass market manufacturers can amortize their R&D and quality control over many more units than luxury brands. The point of the luxury brand is explicitly countersignaling, showing that you can afford to spend more money on an inferior product.
What convenience features? Is the Honda or Toyota really meaningfully more reliable during the first couple of years of ownership?
And I care more about how reliable it is at > 10 years of ownership, not < 3 years (when nearly everything is reliable). My Honda Fit is coming up on 14 years old and runs like new.
It sounds like the comment you replied to was not about efficiency, but about rich people's preferences and whether they're justified.
Stone backsplashes require frequent maintenance and special chemicals. If you don't stay on top of it, they are basically impossible to keep looking clean.
A lot of newer kitchens have wooden floors, which is insane.
I've seen kitchens with thin coated bright shiny copper/brass handles on everything which immediately tarnish and can never be maintained in new looking shape.
A lot of modern gas ranges are fairly hard to clean with lots of parts you have to remove, while a solid middle class electric glass countertop one is zero effort.
I once rented a place where the guy had wooden edges on the kitchen counters which of course aged poorly, plus a porcelain kitchen sink which immediately broke any glass wear that dropped even a couple inches while cleaning.. and was impossible to keep clean looking.
What's insane about this? I grew up in a pretty basic old house with a wooden floor in the kitchen, I don't recall it being an issue in any practical sense.
Not to mention a fully specced out Tesla Model 3 is $80k and Model Y is now.. $90k, and the tax credits are basically gone! I remember getting a pretty well configured Model 3 for $50k after tax incentives in their first year of production.
For ~$70k you used to be able to get a Model S, which now STARTS at $105k. Easily configurable into the $130-160k range now.. insane.
But comparing absolute numbers for a car you bought five years ago may be misleading because the majority of the increase is likely due to inflation.
Back of the envelope math: If you were in CA and got $7.5k federal and $2.5k state credits that means the Model 3 you bought in 2017 was ~$60k or ~$73k in today's dollars. If it's now $80k then that's a real price increase of ~$7k in today's dollars.
That's certainly an increase, but making an expensive car slightly more expensive doesn't seem particularly insane to me.
If you are in the market for a 3-row / 7 seater, you can spend $55k on a Toyota Highlander SUV or $40k on a Toyota Siena minivan.
It's genuinely pretty challenging to spend under $30k on a new car now outside fairly basic 2-4 door smaller sedan/hatchback vehicles in their base trim without options.
Nothing wrong with basic vehicles "in their base trim without options", we have two parked outside the house right now, and the vehicle we owned before them was similar.
I am only trying to illustrate that the line between luxury/excess in autos has shifted substantially in the last few years partially inflation driven and partially cheap credit / long loan terms driven.
The universe of under-$30k cars is now quite limited whereas 5 years ago, one could possibly describe $30k+ as being luxury.
My family also always only bought used cars (and I continued this practice), so I guess that further skewed my conception of car cost downward. I only just bought my first new car recently, and I still haven't really adjusted to the reality of both what current prices are like, and how much more expensive a new car is.
I try and remind myself that for the most part it's not that cars are that much more expensive but that dollars are worth so much less.
For a shit car with the interior fit and finish of a poverty-spec Skoda, and all the important controls replaced with a bloody great iPad that blinds you at night.
Oh, and it's from an obscenely "techbro" company.
Am I the only one not impressed in any sense by Teslas?
I could excuse the drawbacks you cited and the cost if they were the Framework laptop of the automotive world. But at those price points, and a repairability narrative that is not much better than, “out of warranty and one accident away from into landfill”, there isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell I’ll buy a Tesla.
I have a couple of old Range Rovers. There are very few things you can't fix with a half-inch spanner and a hammer, and those you can fix with a 7/16th spanner and a bit of sticky tape.
They run on propane, so they get cheap tax and can be registered as Low Emission Vehicles, which is pretty hilarious for a 4-litre V8.
Combined they probably still have a smaller ecological footprint than making one Tesla Model S.
They've also got far comfier seats.
How does fueling work? Perhaps I just haven't noticed (because I have to reason to), but I have never seen a fueling station advertise propane, outside of tanks for grilling and similar.
Common enough and cheap enough that I still feel a bit prescient for buying a 2017 Ford Focus wagon with about 30k km on the clock that was factory modified for LPG, in August 2021, for about half what the original owner paid.
To fuel up you just go to a filling station with an LPG pump (getting harder to find here unfortunately) and instead of poking the nozzle down the filler neck and holding down a trigger on the filler gun, you plug in a hose with a fitting like a BNC plug the size of your wrist and hold down a button on the pump until you've put enough in. It clicks off when it's full.
No difference in performance (in theory you could adjust it to get more because it's the equivalent of 115RON fuel!) and a bit more fuel consumption, but roughly 2/3 the price of petrol.
But yeah, whenever I'm in a Tesla, the interior looks cheap, and the giant iPad (in the Model 3 at least) looks bolted-on rather than designed-in. Not to mention the real-time display of what's around the car is laughably bad, with cars and pedestrians flickering in and out, and sometimes not even showing up at all.
I'm glad people drive them, though; more EVs on the street is a good thing.
I am very impressed by their batteries and I like the look of the Model S but I'm utterly unimpressed by the build quality of the interior and the cheap materials used.
At that price I'd except to be entering a comfortable car using luxurious materials.
FWIW I tried the Porsche Taycan and the interior is leaps and bound ahead of the Teslas (but the batteries aren't up to par yet and the software ain't either I think).
Tesla exaggerates their range and few actually achieve the quoted EPA range, so you can deduct 10-15% for real world.
The Germans, especially Porsche undersell their range and real world you can get about 10-15% longer out of the BMWs & MBs and something insane like 35% more out of the Taycans.
InsideEVs has a nice real world 70mph highway range comparison, and the ranking would surprise you compared to the advertised ranges. https://insideevs.com/reviews/443791/ev-range-test-results/
So an advertised 350mi Model S and a 225mi Taycan in fact meet somewhere in the middle, closer to 300mi +/- for both.
Also, Land Cruiser has apparently been discontinued.
Wait, what sort of longevity are we taking about? 15 years? 20?
I don't think we humans can reproduce quickly enough for that to span "many generations". :-)
I can totally see how a car could get passed down from father to son, but a single car and "many generations" doesn't really add up in this part of the world (could be totally different in other parts of the world, of course).
Fuel availability considerations notwithstanding, there's very little that would stop them going another 25 years.
I don’t think the so-called “safety features” developed in the next 20 years are as valuable as the others predict. We’re already very safe in cars, especially massive modern ones like the cruiser. If you’re driving fast/reckless enough to get killed in one today more safety features aren’t what you need.
People need to be more mindful of the fact they’re operating multi-ton death machines, not sit back behind increasing layers of technology and text their buddy while driving because they know their “safety features” will protect them.
This is partially why I disabled my airbags - pedestrians don’t have them, why should I? Gives me more skin in the game.
But then you do get articles like https://www.betootaadvocate.com/uncategorized/brisbane-accou...
For those not from the US like myself, this is only the case in the US. I'm sure we'll still get plenty down under.
There was a time, not that long time ago in which good clocks were expensive and expending 2ks on a good clock was similar to expending 2k on a laptop today, a functional, reasonable decision.
My uncle earned a much more expensive Rolex than 2k in a Golf tournament and wearing it nobody believed it was genuine, even a watchmaker could not differentiate it from sight, there are very good Chinese knockoffs for cheap anywhere.
Also, after quartz oscillator clocks, a 2k clock does not work better than a 100 one.
People spend their money on whatever they see fit. One of the great things of having money is having freedom in your life but few people knowing that you have it.
In places like Spain or France people do not admire you for having money, on the contrary they envy you, and you better not show off. Also gold diggers and interested parties like banks start to harass you all the time. And criminals what to take it from you by force.
That is hilarious to me. A quick search is showing one can expect a POS Casio to be +/- 15 seconds per month.
I always viewed watches as the only mainstream sociable acceptable form of male jewelry.
And regardless of which model, generally no more expensive than a woman's engagement or wedding ring, and actually usually cheaper.
Plus it does something other than look pretty - tells time & date!
But the article: it's repetitive and slightly rambling and reads like it was written by some variant of GPT.
The point is fair, but it's also well known to class watchers. In the UK nouveau means a gigantic new build mansion full of chrome and glass, a private gym, and plastic and dental surgery. Old means a small country estate, a Georgian pied-à-terre somewhere near the City, tweedy clothing, and perhaps some pedigree dogs. And horses.
Old money tends to underdress - sometimes sloppily - and on casual acquaintance is indistinguishable from the merely middle class.
It's not until you get an invite to the manor house that you discover the ridiculously impractical and expensive Aga stove, the collection of wildly expensive antiques whose prices are never mentioned [1], the relaxed air of charming quizzical bafflement. (Very few of these people are unusually bright or talented. But socially polished - yes.)
The visuals are not the point. Anyone can tweed, but not everyone can tweed like they've been doing it their entire lives and really mean it.
[1] A 17th century silver spoon for £5000? How fascinating!
If we're going down this line, why stop here? You forgot the 'trophy wife' which is definitely more prevalent than the dig at Musk/Bezos.
Now we have iDweebs, those Apple ear things.
Cufflinks are a big deal, in certain circles.
I don't even own any fake watches at this point and I've found these forums highly addictive/interesting - honestly, the average skill/knowledge level is quite high compared to most "watch enthusiast" forums.
First the maintenance. What is the probability those watches will still be serviceable in 50 years? I own a watch that’s more than 50 years and wear it regularly because it is still maintained by the company who made it.
Second the value holding. Sure you can sink your money in any gear. The special value of great mechanical watches is that they maintain their used value well on the second hand market for decades. An hommage will have little reputation of its own to maintain.
Of course this is all subject to special cases, but, etc because the watch world is very complex. For example many brands copy each other, some replica brand make great quality, and some great brands barely hold their value (which is a good thing for passionate collectors).
No doubt there is a great skilled and passionate community around reproduction, like in music or art. To build a replica you need way more skill than the average watch enthusiast. They rarely outskill the examples they copy still.
Extremely high, given that they tend to run on clones of incredibly popular movements like the ETA2824.
Sure, that's why you have to find the ones that do. The forums linked make this a trivial task.
(Not a Rolex immitation, but I'm wearing a JDM Casio Oceanus S100 which is all the watch that anyone would ever need.)
I don't know if this is true, but it makes a good story.
In all honesty the salient points in the OP about judging instead of thinking, is a commonly attributed aphorism to Carl Jung yet there is no reference to it. The point about tardiness and drawbacks this apparently has on socialising and career progression comes across as utilitarian to the point of sounding sociopathic.
It actually didn't work very well. I guess there's a hierarchy even among the fake.
Took 4 weeks to arrive direct from China
Absolutely. Modern fake Rolexes can only be told apart from a real one by an expert examining it with a loupe. And 8 tick pr second isn't that hard to replicate. Several ETA and Sellita calibers do it as well.
Two weeks later the watch stopped running.
Around the same time, though, my mom's youngest brother was driving on the cross-Bronx throughway, stopped to help somebody whose car was pulled over on the side of the road, and found the driver had been shot dead.
I don't get what this has too do with the fake rolex.
7/10 meme
Gomorrah opens with a description of Italian clothing manufacturing. As described there, the difference between a fake shirt and a real shirt is that they were made to the same specifications under one and the same contract, by different factories, and the real one got delivered faster than the fake one did. Only the first guy to deliver gets paid.
It's an interesting book. https://www.amazon.com/dp/1250145031/
They also made a movie of it [0], I lived in Italy during the financial crisis and it had become commonplace to see large migrating Chinese coming from the North (likely illegal migrants in Milan's clothing factories) come to the central part of Italy looking for work on farms and restaurants. It was hard times as this was taking place as the large migration from N. Africa was happening and they were living in the parks and making the locals irate.
It all came to light when our resident cheese maker, who used to work in the fashion Industry, had to tell them in broken Mandarin that we were fully staffed and couldn't accommodate them, but to try elsewhere further South--a typical way to brush-off a problem as is the running theme with Gomorrah.
I soon realized how dirty the Fashion Industry was as the Zara scandal was ettin into full swing and the workers were taking to writing messages about not being paid for the garments they made [1] as the factories were in sweatshops in Xinjiang or Brazil.
I wouldn't all it interesting so much as it is sobering and eye opening to the perils of offshore manufacturing practices and Italy's fashion Industry was just one of many of these horrors; Foxxcon's electronic manufacturing reliant on African rare earth mine exploitation make all of this pale in comparison.
> That's Italy!
It's anywhere you want to see where manufacturing costs get pushed to be the smallest possible line-item/expense in a value chain; the US is notorious for using forced labour in prisons for these kind of things, too. It's sad because it is a common practice in the worst labour camps/prisons in Russia (Siberia). It's where Britney Griner was going to serve her sentence, which incidentally is also where the Nadya of Pussy Riot spent several years in and was very candid about what was awaiting for her there.
Or maybe not. You mileage may vary.
This would depend a lot on how do you earned it.
You're saying that wealthy people in France and Spain don't show it, and if they do they are commonly robbed?
Haha, don't forget the classic combo of the $10k Caesarstone countertop plus half a dozen blunt knives.
Every time I look at my 30 year old kitchen & bathrooms, and tally up what it would cost to update them, I can't help but think I'd rather just retire a bit earlier.
Yes things need to be replaced as they break, and ultimately some renovation will be needed.. but I know people gutting 10-15 year old kitchens & baths purely for aesthetics every time they move. Full employment for tradesmen.
For example, if you aren't showing up in a $200k Maserati, your car had better be under $50k (maybe $70k with inflation). Only posers who aren't really into cars but want to show off their wealth spend $120k on a car.
For watches, the same thing happens: if you're wearing a watch less than $50k, it had better be under $500. Otherwise you probably don't care much about watches.
Clothing seems to be the same at many companies: you had better wear tailored suits and shirts or be less dressy than "business casual."
For the very wealthy.. If you show enough interest in something to make signaling purchases, it's expected to be "up to snuff" .. this can mean very very high expense or high esotericness.
So that might mean a $200k sports car, or it might mean some uncommon though inexpensive limited production vintage vehicle even though it may be of reasonable price, the time & effort you took to acquire & maintain it is a signal of taste.
Otherwise you'd be better off signaling complete disinterest with a very vanilla middle of the road options.
On menswear I think to your example, you could say you'd be better off not wearing a suit than in wearing a $200 Men's Wearhouse suit. To that end, these days, the type of people you tend to see in suits are either security / front desk staff or very senior corporate executives. Those in the middle have enough labor negotiating power to not be required to wear a suit, but probably not the desire/wealth to spend $2k on a properly tailored suit.
If a senior executive wore a $200 suit to work, nobody would say a word.
Outside SBF, even the executives dressing "casually" are still doing so expensively.
Huh, custom tshirts and well fitting jeans counts as "looking like a total slob" now? Fwiw I'd rather work with / for someone that dresses like that over formal any day of the week.
I like t-shirts and jeans and never want to go back to suits and ties but..
When I went to Japan a decade ago, I realized just how informal and slovenly American working attire had become.
Though I think many imitate regardless of the tribe/workforce/culture in order to fit in.
Look at the schools. It’s informal but there are definitely trends and fashions to follow in order to relate.
Just a thought, but the change in attire, then, is to create some formal distance between management and direct reports.
On the other hand, Japan is the home of expensive high end recreations of American casual clothes - look up Take Ivy, BEAMS, nice selvedge jeans, etc.
I remember some acquaintances running a decent side business buying and then selling vintage American clothes back in Japan (shipping or flying back).
This was back in the 1990s so I believe it.
(it also brought back some fond memories)
America would be a lot better if people thought less about how to “express” themselves, and more about how to keep the social environment around them tidy and orderly.
Perhaps it's just a higher ratio of gay guys that work out vs straight guys that work out that's skewed your views.
> amongst other carefully selected pieces of his wardrobe
so if it was not that carefully selected, he'd look like a homeless?
Don't like the guy, his company, his policies. And I tend to repect our elected officals more than most.
But the idea of showing up dressed in a t-shirt and jeans, and/or a hoodie, make me smile broadly.
Singapore is an interesting place in this regard. We had several young guys in our office who wore $10k plus watches while still living with their parents.
Other buy a home well beyond their needs but drive a honda shitbox and wear old navy (me).
There’s a running joke in my circle about the “dad professional class”. People who are older (40-60s) and go to the office in a remote-work-accepting world mostly because they seem to want to leave their family at home. They all dress like shit in ill-fitting clothes, but because they’re older than the “office casual” dress code, they tend to dress in overly professional button downs and slacks. The business attire that look out of place in tech next to a 25yo in a tee shirt. They don’t seem to know people don’t always take them seriously, and think “they’re not here to [change the world/be the best/rise in the ranks/etc], they’re here to avoid their wife and collect a salary”.
TLDR: stop telling people you try to avoid your family, and start tailoring your clothes, it’s honestly not expensive.
(Source: upper 60s, go into the office mostly because a) it's not far, b) my office setup is a bit better, c) I don't want to wake my wife with Zoom calls. I do have some tailored shirts but seldom wear them.)
Suits are very expensive to tailor by comparison.
Its not about the fashion, its about looking put together. Its signaling that you care. Of course, there's the article which says that people who made it can stop signaling, so maybe that's you.
Don Draper "I don't think about you at all" elevator meme in real life.
Little known fact: before he was Pied Piper's cool attorney in Silicon Valley, but after his first job at a Superstore, Ron LaFlamme lived in NYC where he was told that he "wasn't thought about at all" by Don Draper. https://youtu.be/LlOSdRMSG_k
Sorry, no. There's nothing wrong with me for not putting effort into what aesthetic "signals" I'm sending, because there is no true signal. It's noise. If someone's unclean, that's one thing, because cleanliness matters to health. Fashion does not.
Arguments that fashion matters are all circular, which tells you something. (It matters because people think it matters, and is therefore worth taking seriously!)
Tech workers dressing casually at the office is only a (relevantly) recent phenomenon. Working from home, for a lot of people, is even more recent.
You’ve made a lot of assumptions, and I would consider that this group of people are just defaulting back to what they’re used to, rather than “avoid their wife and collect a salary”.
I don’t know where you work, what industry, or the demographics of who works there, but if “people [who work there] don’t always take them seriously”, and it’s based on older people dressing like older people, then there is a culture problem.
Because of their clothing? All other things being equal, of what possible objective value could fashion conformity hold?
The problem is with you, I'm afraid.
I fit this demographic.
> and go to the office in a remote-work-accepting world mostly because they seem to want to leave their family at home.
There’s some truth to this, though I’ve avoiding coming in. It’s not about escaping the family but just a change of scenery.
> They all dress like shit in ill-fitting clothes, but because they’re older than the “office casual” dress code, they tend to dress in overly professional button downs and slacks.
I have a reasonable taste in fashion, but my cost-conscious self doesn’t allow it.
Age also forces a more conservative style and colors; and it says I’m sacrificing for the kids.
> “The business attire that look out of place in tech next to a 25yo in a tee shirt.
Business attire is like a uniform. You don’t need to spend a lot to look presentable.
> They don’t seem to know people don’t always take them seriously,
Is this a bad thing?
> and think “they’re not here to [change the world/be the best/rise in the ranks/etc], they’re here to avoid their wife and collect a salary”.
Rise in the ranks?
There’s nothing wrong with working to live. You get my best for 8 to 9 hours.
We live in a world where “leadership” is valued, and everything else is devalued. For engineers, this is purgatory.
Like, it’s a huge mental and emotional burden and I’d gladly take a 1/3 paycut to be an IC; except nobody else really wants it.
People buying "100k+ rich man's toy" cars don't care about value for money the way you or I do.
Edit: appeasing nit pickers
Modern Maserati's are great driving cars with Ferrari heritage (and engines) that do command more prestige than a typical M or AMG model, especially in the Trofeo versions.
It's knowing which car or watch to buy, and also recognizing it on others, that acts as the signal.
But I wonder, in cultures very different from mine, which we generally see as more status-competitive, is that also true? Is it a faux pas to buy an expensive gold chain over a "proper" one?
I think pg wrote an article on his blog about how suit wearing was for people who thought like conformists and obviously being a conformist was not for hackers. I am paraphrasing because I can't remember now exactly what he said. But I just think it was contempt of previously established people working in finance or law. Now, the largest companies in the US skew towards tech companies.
I don't know why that happens that newly successful people seem to dislike the symbols of the previous elite rather than just mind their own business. Wearing a suit to a tech company will probably get you ostracized even if you just like wearing suits. This is in spite of the claim that the hoodie culture is not concerned what you dress up in, in fact they are. Maybe you could call that counter counter-signalling. It's just like taking a large salary at a tech company instead of having a $1 salary and getting enormous options and stock payouts. Somehow taking a large salary is worse despite that being normal for CEOs previously.
Not true. If you are a menswear enthusiast who is genuinely into fine tailoring, then people will respect it and even show interest. Generally, having hobbies and interests adds to one’s character. Now wearing a suit because you think it will make people take you more seriously will get you some side eye.
I assume tech companies are more casual than big law firms, and that things may have gotten more casual in the decade since I left the law.
Some of those things are choices that matter and should impact your respect for someone else. Some are not, do not, and should not.
Personally, as a controls engineer who frequents messy manufacturing facilities, dressing in a suit gets in the way of getting work done. It subtly conveys "I'm too important to get my hands dirty, I'll leave the grunt work to the grunts." That kind of unwillingness to do whatever's required to get the job done is a point against those folks in my circles. I do understand that people who come to work in a suit may have different struggles vying for status and trying to send the right social signals in conference rooms, and I don't envy them those tasks - but please don't think less of me as a human because of what I choose to wear.
> please don't think less of me as a human because of what I choose to wear.
But doesn't:
> dressing in a suit gets in the way of getting work done. It subtly conveys "I'm too important to get my hands dirty, I'll leave the grunt work to the grunts."
mean that you think less of others because of what they choose to wear?
But when those personal choices are immaterial, whether choosing to over- or under-dress, they shouldn't affect what I think of others or what others think of me.
I sometimes would have to go to nearby tech companies we worked with and the leads who would greet me would mention something like "oh sorry we didn't tell you that you don't have to wear a suit". You have to explain yourself and there is the implication that wearing a suit is somehow inappropriate.
If you're the only one wearing a suit, you look overdressed. It's as simple as that.
The reason I prefer a hoodie to suit on a daily basis is that putting on a suit is kind of arduous and owning 20 well-fitting suits gets expensive. It has nothing to do with signaling or whatever. Hoodies are far more practical and comfortable! They’re a continuation of what I wore in high school and college, though sadly the skateboard logos have been replaced by tech company logos.
Anyway, if you want to wear a suit, that’s fine, just don’t expect it from me.
https://www.businessinsider.com/steve-jobs-were-apple-we-don...
Also, I think it was originally because the west coast is warm all year.
Stock also varies a lot in price/value (sometimes being nearly impossible to value, say for private companies) and many arguments can be made (up or down) as to its value or potential.
A good lawyer can start to get traction there of course, and it won’t get ignored, but it is not easy compared to, say, a $5mln/yr salary, or 5 years of bonuses of $10mln, which you can just plug into the calculator and go.
I have friends who would kind of scoff at a Rolex but proudly describe the latest $500-for-2 dinner they went to last week.
Similarly I had a friend who only upgraded his iPhone with hand-me-downs from his teenage daughter, so he'd be like 3-4 years behind the curve. Meanwhile he owned like 4 homes and dined out similarly to my other friend.
This won't resonate withh you unless you are or were ever a cook, I fear we had so much more left to capture and were forced to leave on the table that was taken away because of COVID, but this transition in the US food culture was paid with lots of hard work and countless sacrifices that most will never get beyond watching an episode of The Bear.
Two big blows came in hard after Bourdain's death (so many concepts and projects were abandoned that never came back) and then followed with COVID destroying the Industry in such a way that I'm doubting will ever get much further than this in my Lifetime any more: food culture in the US still has so much left to catch up with Asia and Europe but we were making massive progress towards that, but I'm staring to accept this will probably be the high-water mark that the next generation of tech workers and cooks alike will need to build off of. And no, ghost kitchens and burning VC money from Softbank on DD is not a solution.
So far, outside of small boutique restaurants and kitchens, all I've seen is a race to the bottom profit seeking with almost no motivation other than to capture what marketshare remains from corps who benefited from PPP and ZIRP at whatever cost it takes and cutting corners until they got bought out by a large Restaurant group. This may seem like hyperbole but ~60% of all restaurants shutdown forever [0] after covid in what was already I high-failure sector with incredibly costly CAPEX/OPEX business models and low profit margins even during the best of times.
My last encounter with a delivery driver from a large vendor (think Shamrock or Sysco type corp) brought it all home: they had essentially succumb to the same exploitative delivery and monitoring systems that an Amazon delivery driver has, which was a stark contrast to getting deliveries from local farmers for produce/protein ha were the highlight of the menu and accompanied with items from small artisans and purveyors for cheeses, deserts breads etc...
We've lost something very vital coming out of COVID, and I'm not sure what can be done to not undo the progress that was made since the culture-shift has swung so hard to this Amazonification of this Industry.
In the US, there was clearly a consolidation where the big corporate run restaurant groups were able to weather the storm better nationally in the early COVID days.
However, pretty quickly in NYC by say summer 2021 the industry seems to be back and stronger than ever. Everyone was dining indoors again, they kept their expanded outdoor space, maintained their new more extensive to-go services, and did it all with reduced staff never seeming to re-hire their pre-pandemic staff levels.
NYC restaurants are once again annoyingly crowded and hard to get reservations to, with eye popping prices compared to 2019.
So great for restaurant owners but not great for employees.
That said, the wages being offered are crazy compared to 2019 and they are still unable to fill roles. So one would take it that they've found better employment prospects elsewhere, so good for them.
That's not just status, it's got change over time mixed in.
One of the starkest power dynamics in dress code I've observed is in non-tech firms that have large tech orgs to support the revenue generating roles. While there were official dress codes that tech largely abided, our internal customers who generated revenue often showed up in tee shirts or wore ball caps in the office ...
I've often found that people who say (and believe) that they don't ding people who dress poorly, do ding people who dress poorly.
[1] https://community.twistedfields.com/t/march-2022-update-simu...
[2] https://github.com/Twisted-Fields/rp2040-motor-controller
always has been moon meme.
unless you're neveaux rich or stupid or both it is in your absolute interest not to show what you have. driving a Prius used to be that signal but today it has shifted. My direct boss was a Schenker heir (the freight forwarding company) and the only way he showed off is by living in a rental house (albeit manged by his management company so he essentially paid rent to himself), drove a Nissan, didn't spend unless you took a closer look (art purchases for his 4th wife) didn't brag with fancy dinners in Michelin star places (but certainly bragged to his wife about putting her on the map with her silly paintings as a wannabe artist - lol "Sex rules everything around me C.R.E.A.M get the money").
Only lower ranks criminals and new-rich idiots show what they have. Everyone else has learned the lesson: if you show it (the plebs and the IRS), they'll come for you.
Also all the people who're truly rich do NOT play by the same rules as the rest of you. YOU decide where, and how much tax you pay, if you have the cash to pay lawyers and accountants to insulate you from the Plebs.
The US is the biggest tax[1] haven in the world today forget the Hollywood propaganda about Cayman or Panama - only idiot cartels and Victor Bout use these jurisdictions but not the white collar crime lords ...
The new 5th generation that just came out looks amazing, so it wouldn't surprise me if Priuses eventually become trendy again.
nouveau riche, or nouveaux riches
Sorry if this comes off as pedantic, but as a French, I couldn't resist :D
I find mechanical watches to be fascinating. This is obsolete technology, and yet, innovation continues. This is precision engineering, but at least for the high end, mostly done by hand. A lovely anachronism, which is a fitting word for a timepiece. It is like real life steampunk. I fully understand the appeal beyond status signalling. How can geeks not be at least a little interested in watchmaking?
I know some people don't care and for them it is just status signaling. But it the same as for supercars: just because it is status doesn't mean there isn't something behind it.
Or it's about signaling that you're "in the know" with the in-group.
I read some list from (I believe) the 1800s that listed the different vocabulary used by aristocratic vs. middle class English people. It wasn't anything fancy (e.g. graveyard = aristocrat, cemetery = middle class). But as soon as that list was published and the middle class strivers knew to imitate those parts of the dialect, I'm sure the aristocrats quickly deprecated those signals.
I wonder: has anyone made a list of all the different ways we Sneetches have besides our bellies, to distinguish in- and out-groups?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U_and_non-U_English
[0] when Jilly Cooper shows up in the References of a Wikipedia page it's all a bit of a lark
Or maybe they just like to cook and enjoy having good hardware?
Not everything is for signaling purposes. It's really cynical to start viewing everyone's personal expenditures as some sort of socially manipulative tactic. This is especially true when it comes to people's hobbies, where many of us are just trying to enjoy ourselves and appreciate having good hardware around.
This is basically the cost to add a second floor to your crappy home you bought a several years back because that’s all you could afford to buy in Seattle at the time. Probably even worse in some other cities.
I’m speaking of interior renovations of basically aesthetic changes that are generally negative value add.
There’s even a hot market for historical wristwatches. 2 million for a watch that would have been $100,000 10 years ago is not unheard of.
Yeah, I'm being a little glib there. But what they love is golf, tennis, violin lessons for kids. Yes, they own expensive golf clubs (and memberships) and tennis rackets and violins. But what they love is that they can slum it with a very inexpensive tennis racket or golf club or violin, whereas the expensive gear is useless in the hands of someone who hasn't had a lifetime of lessons that cost in the tens of thousands of dollars. Even if you have the money, you can't buy the technique, and people who play these sports/instruments can recognize instantly if you know what you're doing (even in movies, tennis, golf, and violin, faked technique is immediately recognizable). It helps a lot of your parents had money and trained you up in these things when you were a child.
As it turns out, this was an old Chinese saying a couple decades ago, where "cars" really meant bicycles.
> In contrast, children will copy every single action, including the unnecessary ones.
I watched the video, but I'm unconvinced. They tell the kid the box is "magic". Children know the box is not magic. Children know how spells work in cartoon and books. So "magic" is a code word for "please copy all the silly steps as accurate as possible".
The apes have no instruction, so they don't understand the must copy all the silly steps.
I'll also blame school. Children are expected and trained to follow orders of adults even if they don't understand them, because it will be better for them in the future. Did you ever played basketball? Why should you put the ball in the basket if it has a hole in the bottom and the ball will fall down?
(1) It was presented as a game. It seemed like a game.
(2) People like ritual. This was clearly ritual.
Even by not using ANY words and only having then children watch a person and then leaving them alone with the contraption would have gone differently. Some would likely have “played the game” because that is what we teach children. But at least some would have likely just gone for the treat.
In any case, it is an interesting thing to ponder!
I think it’s fairly obvious that if you gave the clear box test to a teenager or adult and said “get the treat out” they’d look at you funny and then many or most would just reach in and grab it. I think even in the black box, they’d probably look at it real hard and maybe try going straight for the treat after investigating the box a bit.
By contrast very young humans operate in “game mode” almost all the time, and are basically “playing along” with whatever game you put them in. It’s a lot of fun, and often silly.
So my question is, what about juvenile chimps? Do they also operate in game mode, or would they follow the adult chimp behavior of going straight for the reward?
There is a strong normative element to this, as well as the play element you mentioned — I expect, as adults, we’ve all engaged in some form of overimitation as an act of conformity.
are you sure about that?
I will say that kids are way smarter than we often give them credit for. They’re natural scientists, and I think we probably educate that kind of learning out of them.
modified quote> I watched the video, but I'm unconvinced. They tell the kid the box is "magic". Children now know the box IS magic. Children know how spells work in cartoon and books. So "magic" is a code word for "please copy all the silly steps as accurate as possible".
The main problem is that humans and chips get different instructions.
(I don't remember this, my mother was hidden behind a one way mirror.)
I had some pretty severe co-ordination issues as a child, no learning related problems - but fuck knows who decided that I needed to be evaluated on both fronts.
Anyway this woman comes in to test me with one of those boxes with different shaped holes in the top, and a matching block for each hole.
I grab a random block and try to shove it in a hole into which it obviously does not fit - and keep trying with the same hole until the woman gets up and leaves in frustration (she'd been trying to hint that I should perhaps try another hole).
The moment she left I quickly solved the puzzle.
- Don't hide your mistakes
- Show that you are vulnerable
- Be yourself
Are all things that work best when you are (contextually) high-status.
Yet we are still culturally promoting them as the things we should all strive for in any situation.
However, it's way easier to be open about my professional mistakes now that I'm recognized by my peers and that I don't do too many of them.
It's simple to expose my vulnerabilities now that I've built a social network that will not hurt me with it because they like and respect me.
And it's certainly great to be able to be myself, now that people around me will say I'm eccentric, and not reject me.
It's like the behavior of men in romantic comedy. If you were to be ugly and awkward, doing what they do would get you arrested. You don't get to play "50 shades" or "twilight" if you are the hunchback of Notredame. It's also why energy, humour and culture are such great assets, allowing you to somewhat help with social status.
One day maybe we will stop selling to our children that life is about this one thing that works in all cases, and admit each life advice is highly contextual.
This was every writer until about 13 years ago. That’s not a long time in a field where people can have 70 year long careers.
It’s interesting to consider how “doing the thing I’ve always done” can quickly become seen as countersignalling when society changes around you.
I've been articulating this dynamic for a long time and tell anyone who thinks I am an example that it's a terrible example to follow - mostly because the countersignals become the signal, as really, if you really want to prove how smart you are, go win a Fields medal, or perhaps you have a cancer cure to help my friend, or maybe you can make something somebody else actually wants for a change - and if you aren't that smart, then maybe you should work less on seeming smart and more on demonstrating you are good at something and use the opportunities that come from the respect of your competence and ability to share it with others, instead of affecting the aura of brilliance at being a failed or frustrated genius. These admonishments are as much to myself as anyone else who resembles them.
Countersignals are vulgar artifacts of the 90s that a bunch of nouveau middle class people are just starting to figure out now, and they only fool rubes and are a way to figure out who to follow and how to climb socially, but never how to do something beautiful or great. I call them fart-connoisseurs because I know what it is like to be one. These days I use this quote a lot, which is, "Don't be so humble, you aren't that great."
When I'm great, I will be humble. Until then, check out how awesome my effort that yielded something objectively crappy is, and even though it's not above criticism, it did the job, which is more than brilliance ever did. Maybe that is knocking the ladder away too, but that ladder went nowhere anyway. :)
Big fan of Rob Hendersons newsletter. Recommend.
I think this was the worst mistake I’ve made to date.
The 90's counter signal trope of success without school was as misleading as the trope you had to get a degree to amount to anything, which was contemptuous of the generations of working class families who created the culture that produced those institutions. None of it means anything so long as you own it, but it is a different life, literally, a different trajectory by degree.
Pure survivorship bias.
If facebook flopped zuck would have been back at university after a "sabatical" and would now be middle management in a cubicle at a consulting company.
I was listening to a pop station yesterday and a song was playing that was like a top 5 of fashion brands, they way the singer kept listing them off. So I think elements of our culture pressure people into doing this kind of painful signaling.
I think signaling or counter signaling should be avoided if you want to preserve your sanity. Find something you’re passionate about and find others who feel the same. Hang out. Make best friends. Date. Get married. Be happy.
The state could take away your apartment and make you lose everyrhing apart the clothes on your back - so why bother fixing the apartment, go and buy some nice clothes... at least you look good NOW and maybe you can keep them.
This negative trainig (easy to lose everything) makes people care more about looks. With so many relatively poor people maybe it is some sort of a "lipstick effect" too - for everyone.
It Latam it leads to horrible levels of asocial behaviors, theft, drug trading to acquire money and use it to purchase luxury items with which signal success
It is heart breaking
But I get your point. Unfortunately there seems to be lots of kids in the the lower socio-economic classes that spend all their money on expensive sneakers, hoodies, and other luxury brand clothes. Spending $1k on a designer hoodie, when you make $15k / year, isn't the smartest financial decision - to put it mildly.
The example that immediately springs to mind, in the tech industry, is the "Steve Jobs Asshole" archetype.
Steve Jobs was a notorious manager, in that he made heavy-duty demands, did not suffer fools, and was blunt to the point of abusive.
But he was also able to filter for talent, cultivate it, and encourage excellence. He wasn't just an asshole. He was really smart, driven, and impatient with things that got in his way.
I have worked with two people, in my time, who worked directly with him at one time, or another, and they both hated him, but I have also worked with a number of folks like Steve Jobs, and have learned how to navigate them. It isn't pleasant, but it's generally worth it, to get on their good side.
Unfortunately, a lot of not-so-smart, and not-so-creative people have picked up on the "demanding asshole" part, without the "smart, selective, and creative" part, so they are just assholes. They honestly believe they are channeling Steve, but they don't get the same results (for the record, Steve Jobs had a lot more failures than successes, but his successes were off the charts).
Now, to be clear, shepherding great work out of your team is a hallmark of a good manager. But if you don’t even know what “good” is your efforts are in vain and you’d be better offer handing that autonomy over to someone who does. You cannot verbally-abuse your way to greatness.
That video was super interesting but I'm not sure the conclusion is correct. In the experiment with the children an authority figure (including full medical suit) was put in front of them and told them "do these instructions".
The chimp wouldn't have that pressure. It's not quite the same experiment.
It would be interesting if you put 5 boxes in front of children and told them they had 1 minute to get as many sweets as they could, if they would still follow all the steps.
I'm afraid that I don't understand the comment.
Sorry. I'm stupid that way.
But the 'asshole boss' or authority figure archetype is an old one, from long before Steve Jobs, and it can be an effective motivational tool, although many of us, myself included, don't have the stomach for it. Obligatory pop culture example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elrnAl6ygeM
I’m pretty sure they were talking about that consistency.
The story that I have heard, is that Jobs wore the same thing, every day, so his mind wouldn’t be “bogged down,” with minutia, like what to wear.
I think some folks also have superstitions about dress.
One stray "water is nice out of a glass bottle" or picking out the yellow m&m from a bowl turns quickly into an assistant with a list of demands like "water, glass bottle, 9.4 degress. Bowl of plain M&Ms, no more than 76 no fewer than 38, yellow only"
It was common for Japanese engineers to wear uniforms just like factory workers do. You can look up pictures from Nintendo where they’re wearing jumpsuits designing Mario.
The uniforms were kind of special. They wouldn’t let us yanks, buy them.
Zuckerberg was never known for copying the look of Steve Jobs. I doubt you can find multiple photos from different dates that demonstrates the claim.
Zuck wore zip hoodies and flip flops; the version of Jobs that Zuckerberg would have been exposed to did not dress that way (Jobs might have worn flip flops to work in the 1970s, given the era). Zuck wore plain, grey-blue, short sleeve shirts; Jobs did not. There isn't much to Zuck's sense of style beyond that it's simplistic and very casual - which is from the era he grew up in and how his young peers around him dressed.
Holmes by contrast did attempt to directly mimic the look of Jobs.
I don't assume Jobs was the first one to do it, and it's certainly more conspicuous that Holmes was copying Jobs' style, but I do assume that people like Zuckerberg copied Jobs directly as a result of hearing that this was some little productivity hack for Jobs. I associate this period as the same time the 'personal brand' was becoming more popular, and people started aping Steve Jobs as a way to either deceive people just through perception or as a good faith attempt to be like Steve.
https://medium.com/swlh/why-successful-people-wear-the-same-...
https://www.businessinsider.com/highly-successful-people-lik...
https://www.ctsolutionsglobal.com/post/2019/09/12/what-do-st...
https://www.businessinsider.com/steve-jobs-productivity-hack...
Here's an article that includes a quote of Zuckerberg explaining himself, which makes my speculation less of an assumption:
https://careers.workopolis.com/advice/the-reason-mark-zucker...
> “I really want to clear my life to make it so that I have to make as few decisions as possible about anything except how to best serve this community. There’s actually a bunch of psychology theory that even making small decisions, around what you wear or what you eat for breakfast or things like that, they kind of make you tired and consume your energy. My view is I’m in this really lucky position where I get to wake up every day and help serve more than 1 billion people, and I feel like I’m not doing my job if I spend any of my energy on things that are silly or frivolous about my life, so that way I can dedicate all of my energy towards just building the best products and services and helping us reach our goal and achieve this mission of helping to connect everyone in the world and giving them the ability to stay connected with the people that they love and care about. So, that’s what I care about. Even though it sounds silly that that’s my reason for wearing a grey t-shirt every day, it is true.”
> He then pointed out that others throughout history have done the same, like Steve Jobs, who was usually wearing a black mock neck.
Shirt and tie up top, shorts below the camera line. Rock the same at the bosses dinner.
And not because he was in shorts, T-shirt and sandals, a respectable attire at the beach or pool, but not when other people are striving to present themselves at their best. Putting people down should never be fashionable.
The richer you are, the more you are interested in appearing humble. Higher EV in signalling "money speaks, wealth whispers" message and appearing "down-to-earth" to win people over.
Very often it pays to do the opposite of what is expected from you.
poor: got to say you work hard when talking to middle class
middle class: got to say you work smart if you’re talking to upper class
upper class: got to say your work hard to peers, middle class, and poor, but reasons are different. for peers it’s because nihilism isn’t cool neither is being overly epicurean
everyone says the right narrative to the right people, no one really knows the truth
I am painfully aware of my privilege working in tech which is why I don’t hide it, and try my best to spread it around in ways that aren’t self-gratifying. I’ve paid my friends’ rent, car repairs, groceries, plane tickets so they could be home for the holidays, venmoed my struggling friends so they could go out with the group, hooked them up with jobs, bought concert and festival tickets. Literally no one in my social circle is allowed to say, “sorry I can’t money’s tight.” My only conditions are that they not thank me, never pay me back in any way whatsoever, and tell no one.
One of the managers in my office does the same thing since he also grew up poor and hungry. When your out to dinner with him you not escape without being stuffed to the brim, and dessert, and leftovers.
One approach is to dress like other famous & successful tech founders: a nice T-shirt & hoodie. T-shirt & hoodie is also just comfortable and common, which is exactly why those famous & successful founders wear it, they're not showing off traditionally by wearing $10,000 tailored suits, they're wearing a T-shirt & hoodie that anyone could wear. Dressing up with a fancy suit might actually look odd amongst the Silicon Valley upper class.
Edit: Another interesting example I thought of when replying to another comment is in luxury retail stores, fancy/business clothing used to be such a strong signal of high status that retail workers there would often ignore you if you walked in wearing T-shirt & jeans because they'd think you couldn't afford it. Nowadays, that's a lot less likely, they know too many people dress like this for a retail worker to safely assume anything. There are a lot of wealthy people who aren't in the news all the time and a lot of them don't dress like a traditionally wealthy person.
An example of this is in luxury retail stores, fancy/business clothing used to be such a strong signal of high status that retail workers there would often ignore you if you walked in wearing T-shirt & jeans because they'd think you couldn't afford it. Nowadays, that's a lot less likely, they know too many people dress like this for a retail worker to safely assume anything. There are a lot of wealthy people who aren't in the news all the time and a lot of them don't dress like a traditionally wealthy person.
Is that really the case though? Because I see a lot of university buildings and foundations named after really wealthy people. That's hardly "whsipers".
It must be so tedious to live having internalized this perspective on people. The vast vast majority of people are not "signaling" when they do things, they are just doing things. This constant meta game mostly exists in the minds of this iamverysmart crowd. Most people who ride bikes to work just like to ride bikes and find it to be a convenient way to get to work, they aren't giving a single thought to how it plays in some status game that nobody else they interact with is thinking about either.
I find this whole genre incredibly unrelatable.
Yes, a good friend of mine can afford to be a (rather poorly paid) journalist because said friend is in fact a millionaire when it comes to his inherited real-estate assets, but someone like me (my parents had to rely on subsistence agriculture until not that long ago) has to always have a decent-paying job available or else.
Again, for people on the other side of the fence is not tiring at all, we’re very much aware of it each and every day. It’s not a new thing either, reading Balzac means reading about people on each side of the has real money/has no real money fence.
A rich person being a poorly paid journalist because they want to and can afford to isn't signaling, they're just doing something they want to do and which they can afford to do. Very very few people do such things simply for the sake of appearances.
You (and me, for what it's worth) always having to have a decent-paying job available or else is also not "signaling", it just is what it is, we have to work jobs because we have to work jobs, there isn't a status meta-game to it, it's just how we afford life.
It's the mindset of looking at things like your poorly paid journalist example, and thinking "that person is signaling" rather than "that person wants to be a journalist" that I find tedious and unrelatable.
Starting at USD 13 400.
To be fair - these guys love riding. So, ride what you enjoy.
I agree with you that most actors don't consciously make decisions based on how they will be perceived and instead just do things.
However, I don't think that stops other actors from, without thinking themselves, taking those actions as signals and judging others by those signals.
We as the actors being judged can choose to think through those things or not. Either way we're being judged by those "signals". And either way I'm judging others based on those signals.
I've read Sutherland's "Alchemy" book and that's not how I remember him framing signaling.
Long to short, while - to your point - we are not all intentionally signaling, we are as receivers of inputs are constantly looking for and translating random input into signals.
The point being, whether you like it or not, you're giving off signals. Be mindful, or not. But if you go with the latter then you might at times be doing yourself a disservice because we as humans self-generate signals.
https://www.amazon.com/Alchemy-Surprising-Power-Ideas-Sense/...
p.s. I enjoyed the book. His is a very counter "conventional wisdom" mindset. That appeals to me.
This is basically what I see going on here, and what I mean by "the iamverysmart crowd" (which to be clear: I am a part of). We overindex on this kind of counter conventional wisdom because it's more interesting. But I think it's more often the case that the boring conventional wisdom is closer to the mark.
You see "accidental countersignaling" from people who are generally oblivious to social cues, like folks with Aspergers or recent immigrants to a country, because the subtle feedback from other people doesn't register for them. These people tend to exist apart from the social reality and inhabit only economic and physical reality.
Articles (and comments) like this one are describing what's going on, not prescribing it. Basically nobody goes into a social situation thinking "How can I raise my social status?" The people who do come off as phonies, because the emotions involved operate very subtly and quickly and if it's not unconscious it's apparent to other people. But you can analyze the situation after the fact and describe what's going on, as well as try to train your unconscious offline to have better responses to the situation you were in.
No they don't! Is my point. This is almost entirely a story made up by this bizarro world of smart people who think themselves into circles (and aren't working at pizza hut). Nobody cares how someone gets themselves to their job at pizza hut; the other people working there aren't thinking about this, the person riding the bike there isn't thinking about this. This is just people like us with too much time on our hands to write substacks and debate silly things on internet message boards constructing castles in the sky.
> Articles (and comments) like this one are describing what's going on, not prescribing it.
I recognize that it is attempting to describe what's going on. I am saying that I think it is failing to accurately describe what's going on.
Some people are blissfully checked out enough from social competition dynamics that they don't notice it.
We can say that society exaggerates the importance of some of these things, or that they're less of an issue in certain circles. Or that it's easy to psyche yourself out about those issues and miss many of the opportunities around you. All true. But the issues actually exist, and aren't just from the imagination of a small group of people that overthink things.
This is not how social dynamic at Pizza Hut works.
Well forgetting the fact that neither of us can prove what we think about this I do believe it's a form of signaling. At least in the sense that someone who does not have status if (from my observation over the years) less likely to do things that could further confirm or lower their status.
For example growing up my mom had a 'cleaning lady'. That cleaning lady would insist that when my mom dropped her off it was not in front of her house but where her neighbors couldn't see that another woman was dropping her off (because that would imply she was cleaning houses). Likewise an employee of my father (factory/warehouse work) would always change out of their clothes and travel home in something much nicer. And not because the clothes were dirty either.
I dress in a t-shirt and dungarees everyday. When I was younger (and also in my own new business) I wore a suit. Sure times were different but for one thing now I don't need to prove anything.
I think what you are missing is that they are signaling whether they realize it or not. A signal is just a discernible phenomenon that is given meaning by observers. It doesn't have be intentional.
An example: social counter-signaling often arises naturally and unconsciously. Think about the rich person who would rather not be recognized as such, or the person who is a bit carefree because they are beyond the grind. They don't consciously adopt a 'carefree persona', they just feel more at ease because of their life situation.
People can be broadly separated into 2 categories in terms of cognitive wiring for personality psychology. "People people" and "Things* people". (Theres a lot of overlap between interest in aesthetics and interest in ideas here too, but a separate discussion) These map rather neatly onto other things like introversion and agreeableness, but parking that for a moment. Additionally, "People people" can learn about 'Things' and "Things people" can learn about 'People'.
Things people (so lets say, your bog standard software eng.) And people people (communications director) do have one thing in common, which is assuming they understand how the other thinks. What is irritating minutae to one, is the essence of importance to the other. Talking about the superiority of UTF8, Linux or Vim might come across as repulsively "iamverysmart" to "People people".
Observing social signals as signals, and the various hierachical cues that inform and are informed by them is the essense of being interested in other people. We all adhere to varying degrees of social order. To disparage the rules is perilous and risks ostracisation (in the olden days, this meant you didnt reproduce and died).
This dichotomy is responsible for a lot of the mechanics of organisational hierachies. Not everything is a math problem.
It's also a characteristic of con artists of the SBF/Holmes etc. variety. Patrick Boyle's latest video, "Why We Trust Fraudsters!" explores this in some depth:
I was telling my dad that we were going to try a new restaurant. "They churn their own butter," I pointed out excitedly. And my dad--who grew up in a village in Bangladesh--is like "why would they churn their own butter? You can buy it in a store."
People convey all sorts of messages through subtle signaling. They have an image they try to cultivate, even if only unconsciously. For example, people on the west coast wear hoodies and T-shirts to signal a sort of casualness. Meanwhile, I don't wear hoodies or T-shirts because I'm worried people might mistake me for a day laborer.
I don't think most people who say they're above it all really are. Maybe they are. Or maybe they're not as self-aware of their own motivations. Or maybe they're in a cultural bubble where they can't recognize certain social currents as signaling.
I don't know why you've re-framed it into a status signal. Did you really value churning your own butter as a pure status signal and not for the benefits of artisinal butter?
To that dad, making your own butter was not a cultural signal showing your dedication to getting good flavor from butter, it just meant you were poor. If you could buy butter at the store, you were rich.
As someone who grew up in a second world country, things like making your own butter or having your own chickens were just a sign of poverty, not a signal of distinct taste.
Poor people in Western countries where even the poor buy supermarket produce will sometimes comment on the poor quality of modern mass market produce. You don't need to be in a different class or playing status games to taste the difference. If I look for an artisanal food, it's because it tastes better.
Edit: probably a more direct rebuttal is that the accusation is "They have an image they try to cultivate, even if only unconsciously" which means the person intends to signal who they are. Saying something is a "sign of poverty" doesn't mean anyone is cultivating an image or playing status games. It's not a game or a message to be visibly poor.
Again, no, they don't. I don't want to be too categorical here, I'm sure some people do this to signal something. But the vast majority of people wearing hoodies and t-shirts are just wearing comfortable clothes because they like to.
I can assure you that posting on a public forum that you think signaling is beneath you is signaling.
Following your heart can also be a great filter. If you maintain some level of compassion and integrity, you will create a product that customers want.
A poor person depends on a diverse array of skills, relationships and resources.
A rich person depends on their account balance. They focus on that, basically in exclusion of all else.
It makes the way they see and behave really different.
It explains "wealthy miser" syndrome.
IDK. The people I know who I would consider rich money wise also have the above in spades.
Nonsense; almost the defining characteristic of being rich is that you don't need to think about money; if you need some it's there.
This analysis assumes that the successful person who engages in an activity is doing so because they are “signaling”, not just because they like to do the activity. When they do something to signal, it’s almost certain that the successful person’s “success” is driven by their ability to get others to copy their behavior, or put another way, they’re selling the activity or things related to it.
Edit: Examples are all over, but think of any product that a celebrity sells. (Heck, people even read HN because pg told them that smart, interesting people do it ;-) )
In earlier days, we understood very little of the technology we had, even on the highest expert level. A chimpanzee that does not imitate but only watches to pick up the elements it understands would never be able to become bronze age, no matter the abundance of ore and fuel. The human on the other hand apparently has the ability to trust the unknown and try.
As people get older, I noticed they just can’t stop flashing how successful they are, how they can afford this or that, and suddenly everything becomes a financial/status competition. People becoming small contract freelancers and flaunting to you how they are now “CEO and entrepreneur, what about you?”. One time, after a lucky IPO having been at the company for less than 2 years, I was told by a friend who was typically present in my weekly social life, and with whom I shared a lot of fun experiences in my 20s: “why do you work so hard rather than choosing a good pre IPO company and stay at the bottom and chill and retire in a couple years?”. No shit. That was the last straw. I voted with my feet and I am overall happier in a life of solitude.
I'm not a misanthrope, and still enjoy the company of people. But. I used to status-jockey and be unconsciously and consciously obsessed with all of that, no matter the arena/ context/ subculture, etc. But doing a lot of inner work and unearthing what my core drives/ motives/ needs were, a lot of that status-jockeying and wanting to be in the in-group to feel this existential sense of acceptance and security started to come into focus, and a lot of old friendships became revealed as insecurity/ fear based (on both parties). And trying to introduce new paradigms to old friends became sort of the last-ditch effort to try to salvage relationships that were built on shaky foundation.
It also made me look back on when people tried to speak truth into my beliefs when I was still caught-up in wanting to be relevant and seen as high-status & outwardly respectable, and how I couldn't hear what people were saying.
I still wanna give people a chance, though, but accept them for where they communicate they are at and leave em alone if they're deep in that status-chasing game, and have no desire to explore getting out of that mess. There are still people out there who want to enjoy life and find meaning on other terms than getting validation from an anonymous audience/ jury that they believe has the power to approve or reject them.
Look at how many were considered good but still haven’t gone public.
I clearly have a lot of startups and pre IPO companies under my belt, and he knew that.
I don’t think it is that difficult to tell the difference between the loving enthusiast (with say a gaming PC they built that looks like dreck using unpopular parts, with judicious use of expense), and the mere status chaser (with say a stupid expensive gaming PC with clichéd blingken lights, plus an enthusiasm for high-status parts and ranking behaviours). If engineers, find the true engineer types, rather than the wannabes?
I could imagine it is difficult in some suburbs that mostly have plastic people, but you said you are more worldly than that. There are poseurs everywhere, but there are definite patterns of behaviour that you can use to filter them out, regardless of their clique.
Not all countersignals are that costly. For example, casual wear is common among devs. This signals that our skill set is valuable enough that we don't need to comply with corporate dress codes. Sometimes someone from a poor background turns up in a suit - for example, we had a QA guy who did, having converted from some previous career via a short course. Sometimes new grads come to interview in one, having been poorly informed by their parents or whatever. Continuing to wear different dress to your colleagues just makes them uncomfortable and doesn't help you, even if your skill set is not yet that valuable.
The more general piece of advice here is that you should take advice from those who have just succeeded at what you want to do, not someone who did so a decade or more ago (parental career advice is usually well out of date. For example, my parents imagined that an academic career was still the easier option)
And then there's Vint Cerf.
I work in the tech industry, and although I don't usually wear a suit, I often show up in a spezzato, a pair of pants and a jacket of a different fabric/color. Nothing too flashy, but well put together. And I think that's the counter signal nowadays: show up looking good, feeling good, being what we want to be.
Like, what does a deal need to be signed in a suit? What does the suit contribute to the deal? If it's to convey "professionalism", surely a cheap $300 piece of attire shouldn't be a stronger signal than whatever due diligence the two parties have done already?
― John Steinbeck, Travels With Charley: In Search of America
It’s one thing to signal by wearing nice clothes to a company outing where you make an impression on the person who can materially affect your future income.
It’s another thing to consider every aspect of your life in the lens of “what would the wealthy do?”
I really have no interest in allowing others to make decisions for me, and I don’t understand the mindset
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Kardashian
Even after reading that I don't actually know what this woman is well-known for.
This is just plain incorrect.
Humanity functions in three groups: creators, mimics and teachers.
The creators are the less cautious types that strike out and build new things, attempt to invent or innovate. Their personalities and behaviors are quite often noticeably different from everyone else.
Mimics copy, copy, copy. They're probably ~95-97% of the population. Their success depends on successfully copying other models that work.
Teachers primarily exist to train mimics, to amplify knowledge out to humanity. They're mimics with bullhorns and a desire to pass on things that have worked and knowledge acquired broadly by the species (lessons learned, etc).
This works, this is successful, initiate copy mode. And off it goes. Humans are exceptionally good at that for sure. We just got a remarkable, prominent, several decade demonstration of it at a global level in so called globalization. Creators are the ones that initiate the next things to be copied, the next things that get taught from a textbook in school, and so on (to be clear, most creators suffer terribly and never achieve much of anything; theirs is a low success rate, high reward path).
Without missing a beat, the other guest quipped “Yeah, take a nap”.
Great to see a scientific reason for one of my long held opinions: “humility policing” is a social tactic, and a very efficient one if you’re high status. Don’t fall for it. Resist the humility police. Give and claim credit where credit is due.
Anyway, the point here is that I’ve been fortunate to meet a number of really talented people at various stages of their careers, and many of the most talented ones really are humble. They act that way because they don’t need to be boastful about their work in the first place, and lack of humility is a really good way to make people resent you instead of helping you, which is counterproductive when you’re good at what you do. It also signals that you aren’t confident in your work, or that you’re overconfident and not careful. Both can be red flags.
Don’t know why I’m writing this. I just wish someone had explained these things to me when I was starting out in my career.
The other day I read an interview with a local guy in his 20s that struck gold with crypto, he'd invest something like $20k, and turned it into $40M. He basically went all in on one alt-coin before the marked exploded late last year, and the coin went up 2000x.
When asked about it, he of course came up with a narrative that this wasn't just dumb luck. He had had worked hard for those $20k, and he had lost his shirt many times prior to this. But in the end, he was patting has own back and saying that it was his savviness which resulted in his newfound wealth. And if others were to follow his steps, they'd need to spend countless hours watching the charts and reading whitepapers.
He had now mostly exited from crypto, retiring from his "old life", and being a full-time investor (VC for startups).
Can you imagine if some newspaper interviewed a recent lottery winner, with the winner detailing how he'd planned it all along? But to the ignorant, it all sounds very impressive.
edit: to please the pedants, I should have said "many rich people", as to not imply "all". My fault.
Most self-made billionaires came from at least millionaire families. Generally hard working, smart guys with a lot of skill & luck, but they start at a level we can only dream that maybe our children or grandchildren can start from.
I once worked for a billionaire investor who told us how he got started investing when his father offered him the choice at 13 years old: have his birthday party at one of the most famous & expensive hotels in NYC, or take the cash value of that to invest in stocks. The dollar figure seemed to be something like the equivalent of $50k in 2020 dollars. Much like orange man who got "a small loan of $1M from his father", I am sure the $50k given to a 13 year old was not the first or the last paternal investment.
Another firm managing ~$10B there was a guy who unbelievably made it to the C-suite in his 20s. It was never clear exactly what the connection was, but he was some sort of family friend of the founder and worked for him as a teen. He was also related to a big bank CEO.
Sounds like Matthew Grimes, lol
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-28/from-inte...
Nassim Taleb again, after mere comfortability ita a long road of blackjack and 100 hour workweeks.
You might be able to get successful people to admit that they were in the right place at the right time, but they’ll almost always qualify that with how much effort they put in to be in that situation.
Being able to afford that wouldn't be lucky, it would imply some sort of per-existing wealth or at least a solid support network.
I was presenting it primarily through the lens of a mindset that is undaunted by failure and having the motivation to avoid giving up prematurely.
Successful writers and entertainers often share stories about how they were rejected dozens and dozens of times before finally getting noticed. I have friends who wanted to change careers by moving to a different industry and they must have submitted hundreds of job applications before they managed to get their junior level role.
However, you're only getting that ball if it's hit in your direction. You can attend hundreds of games and still never have one hit close enough to catch.
While missing one or more preparation steps (e.g., attending a game) may rule out the possibility of catching a game ball, for every person who does catch one, there are dozens if not hundreds of people who prepare at least as much and still never do.
Lou Reed
If one is on top of the heap, it is convenient to believe in meritocracy, doubly so. On the one hand, it makes the person feel they earned what they have, and second it means the poor are also getting what they deserve and so there is no need to artificially prop them up. "Those people" should have worked harder.
It's comforting to think that those that have achieved the best outcomes in life have simply sacrificed time spent on other things, and spent more time on work. There might be some truth in that, but often they have had better opportunities, due to both circumstance and luck, that they also have made better use of than average.
But so do you!
Here's an example from my own life:
In the late 80's, heading into the early 90's I was working in manufacturing. Paid poorly, but man! I love that work. Had a great time, worked with people who had real skills and built up a set of my own too.
Saw the outsource waves coming hard. They were big and they were going to gut manufacturing. We all talked about it.
Few of us really did anything about it. I was one of the ones who did.
I started networking. Got out there, started having lunches with people, attending various groups, all sorts of stuff.
Fast forward today: I'm running a startup with a partner doing work with metal additive technologies after a 25 year run in CAD / PLM. Back to manufacturing as an reshoring wave is headed our way. For many doing the work the pay is still not great, but more opportunities are out there now than there have been for a long time.
My peers from that time period are mostly doing the same work, for almost the same pay ( and if that doesn't speak to some troublesome economic policy, I do not know what does ), or are employed in other fields.
A few of us moved up and into another class basically.
Lucky? Hell yes!
But, had I not done the networking, I know absolutely I would not be in the position I am in today.
In a basic sense, this all works a bit like a lottery or raffle. Consider each interaction with others a ticket.
The game is going to reward X number of tickets. And Y tickets may be rewarded due to unplanned opportunity happening as a result of a group of people realizing something is an opportunity that they would not have realized apart or in a different context.
There are Z tickets total, let's say.
People who are active in this way, talking with others, helping others out, seeking help, and doing projects, whatever they can do, get a lot more tickets than most people do.
And because of that they seem more lucky because more of them find opportunity than the baseline people not so active do.
Now, I have one other thing to say and that is about the "do what you love and money will follow" many people say is really only applicable to well off people who are somehow enabled to do what they love because their basic needs are covered somehow, or put another way, they are just not needy which frees them up to explore what they love.
The truth is many of us can do what we love and money will follow, but it's hard work!!
What I did was work my job and put 20 percent of my free time into "hobbies" that were skill builders toward "what I love" and that activity coupled with the networking and helping others is what got me a lot of those raffle tickets to better opportunities!!
I spent a ton of time doing electronics and programming on my own. A lot of it was retro computer based because I love retro computing. That 8 bit era is so damn much fun! I still love it. But, I also used it as a vehicle to build skills I would need later on, and it all worked out. Working on bigger systems helped too. I didn't put all my time into 8 bitters. I had SGI unix systems purchased off ebay, a couple pretty good Linux machines assembled from parts I got many different ways. And I setup an electronics lab made of second hand gear, some things I made myself, and a few gifts from people or trades I got helping others out too.
When opportunity presented itself I knew enough to be able to go for it and knew enough people to get help too.
Don't get me wrong. I've been lucky. Others I know will own their own luck too. ( in comfortable conversation )
But, I also maximized my chances. The cost was a bit less free play time than my peers had, but really it was also time I really enjoyed because it was invested in things I love to do and that really interest me. Mostly, I didn't catch as many movies and as many parties. No joke!
But, I had many more interesting lunches meeting great people doing all sorts of stuff!!
I am nor sure that was a cost as much as it was just living differently.
To sum up:
Sometimes a person gets noticed, or a co-worker can lend a hand up. This happens sometimes, but not too often.
More often a person gets noticed when they are active among other people. This happens more often.
Getting noticed is "that person deserves an opportunity", or "I know a guy who can get this done", or, "Did you see her project? It lines right up...."
Helping others often results in those others wanting to help us in return! Not always, but pretty often.
Doing stuff results in skills, stories one can tell, reasons to talk with others, and a general increase in competency and capability.
All that type of activity is what does tend to very seriously increase one's chance of a "luck" event happening!
They are also what can very seriously improve one's ability to take advantage of a "luck" event, which is what I call an opportunity, generally speaking.
All of what I just said is what one can do when having means, available capital isn't on the table. Wasn't for me. I came from poverty.
And there is no shame in poverty. It sucks. Way too many of us are there and it's not OK. There is a policy discussion to have one day soon. And we should have already had that discussion. Like I said, we should have it one day soon.
The shame, if there is any at all, boils down to those of us able to help others out not doing it. And in like kind, those of us needing help, some opportunity, not doing things to increase our chances of seeing opportunity and being able to act on it in a meaningful way.
*Labor theory of value*
I think you are right about work not being interchangeable. It's not been that way in my experience. Some work is. Other work isn't, and people and their basic nature vary widely too.
This does imply just working hard isn't enough. I don't agree with that at all!
What you do matters. And "working hard" means doing more of the kinds of things needed to improve luck more of the time in my view.
It's called self-serving bias, and it's everywhere in society.
It may be skill, it may be luck, or it may be both.
But consider that this outperformance & hot-hand phenomenon can be replicated even in purely random games like coin flipping.
So sometimes taking the "winners" and trying to craft narratives of why they succeeded and what you should do to replicate them is a silly game.
Replicating SOME of the behaviors of SOME winners, upon careful study of what in their process actually allows them to differentiate themselves from others is the key, and is usually a process that requires a lot more work.
The work here was that they had some sort of investment process that required time & effort evaluating projects & their prospects over long time horizons. These sorts of processes require entire investment teams and are not the sort of thing that make it into their Fortune magazine blurb or pithy twitter posts.
The process cannot be summarized in a paragraph blurb, and even if you were to read a 300 page book you may not have the man-hours, technical skills or knowledge to replicate it.
the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect described by Crichton comes to mind here.
It is quite potent when media talk about crypto and usually involves evident logical fallacies that are not dissimilar to Orwellian double-speak.
Like the idea that cash is freedom so crypto supporters also support no cash limits, even though you can't buy crypto with cash and crypto cannot be converted directly to cash and people who won the crypto lottery keep their money in a good old bank when a good old investment manager handles them to buy good old banking products using good old FIAT money taxed by the good old government, because "freedom propaganda" is the best tool to sell a fraud to the ignorant.
But media don't write about it, I don't know why.
I have bought and sold crypto primarily using cash for the last ten years, what are you talking about.
Yes, many people use an exchange. Many do not.
Source: have been doing this for years.
You can also trade for non-physical "cash", e.g. local bank transfer via escrow. As far as I'm concerned, that's a cash exchange.
Never had a bad experience with it. You just sit in a coffee shop with the person for the few minutes it takes for a transaction confirmation.
You ever thought about how a credit card is a debt card?
Whereas, it's the debit card that actually spends your credits?
When your account is credited, that means you gain money. That's the definition of "credit."
So yes, you are creating credits for the credit card company, against you. What you are gaining is debt/liability. Which why it's weird for it to be "your" credit card.
If I have a Chuck E. Cheese game token card, that doesn't mean I owe Chuck E. Cheese tokens.
A credit card offers you credit.
credit: noun An arrangement for deferred payment of a loan or purchase.
Yes, it's incredibly risky but at least it has a better chance than playing the lottery. Like Nassim Taleb says, bet on things with a limited downside and unlimited upside. And if you don't try, nothing will happen.
Penny stocks and junk bonds, a classic recipe for attaining mega wealth.
Invest in both extremes, barbell style. Put MOST of it in something bulletproof (he goes with Treasury Bonds) and then the rest as big bets on long shots.
Seems reductionist to equate buying low and selling at peak to buying a lottery ticket. But so it does to claim hard work has been the main reason why financial investors profit
Plenty of people 'profiting' on the wealth of their parents, grandparents, etc. when they themselves have never worked a day in their life and don't have much knowledge of anything.
Inherited wealth is an obvious contradiction to the meritocracy that so many people believe we live within today.
Edit: and otoh I would consider "Boss is in shorts, t-shirt and sandals" as just plain signalling, because I grew up in a world (my favourite anecdote was working with a Hawai'ian VC who would classify meetings as "socks" or "no socks") where in any given business situation, those who have the gold dress down and those who pitch for it dress up.
With countersignaling there's an extra level to the game where your message has the form "I have this quality over and above merely affording the first-level cost" -- now the cost you're paying is the risk of being taken for riff-raff. Those with more of that quality, whatever it is, have to be better at pulling that gambit off, for it to work as a countersignal.
conjugation: "They are riffraff. You are sloppy. I am sprezzatura incarnate."
essentially, more status game plays
Counter-signalling: Signalling that you are adopting a sub-optimal strategy.
Gate-keeping: Creating an environment that lower-class people can't survive in. This is more forceful.
Will doing heroin make you a rock star?
Might it be that Steve Jobs and Elon Musk succeeded not because of but in spite of some of their antisocial traits? Maybe you should emulate their work ethic and skills instead.
No but the trauma that makes you do heroin can produce beautiful lyrics. (Or so I'm told.)
I believe that’s “cargo cult”-ing.
If you told the children their goal was to remove the gummy bear from the box with as few actions as possible they too would skip messing with the mechanism on top. The apes are playing one game (get the treat) and the kids are playing another (manipulate this box the way I show you). Comparing their actions and drawing conclusions is silly. It's like saying someone playing chess is missing a lot of moves that a checkers player made.
> In these studies, chimps are behaving more rationally than humans. There is no wasted motion to obtain the reward.
> Humans haven’t been successful because we are innovators. Rather, we are successful because we don’t think for ourselves, and save time and energy by copying others.
> In contrast, children will copy every single action, including the unnecessary ones.
Isn't the chimpanzee the one saving time/energy in this case since it's not engaging in superfluous activities and only doing what it's necessary for its goal? I was expecting the article to state that the point of human superfluous activity is that it allows for a greater range of experimentation (a superfluous activity might lead to an adjacent innovative/novel solution for a new goal that was outside of the original scope).
>"...Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance.”
>Hard work increases the likelihood of luck finding you, and hard work also prepares you for when it does.
You can't reliably produce luck, even by imitating people that are "lucky"; all you can do is increase the likelihood that you might capitalize on luck.
This is true in a very deep sense, and this human desire (let's even call it compulsion) to imitate others can be used to base an entire anthropology on, as René Girard did quite masterfully. For anyone interested, I strongly recommend reading "I See Satan Fall Like Lightning".