The conclusion that high level programming languages are "complementary" while LLMs are "competitive" seems very shaky to me. If we had never invented high level languages, and instead used LLMs to assist writing and debugging assembly code, I think we'd all be a lot better at reading assembly.

I think the real effect on programming is to reduce the importance of mechanical and rote skills such as typing fast and having a photographic memory for standard library functions and algorithm patterns.

If your main skill is that when given a detailed description of something to implement, you can bang out working code at 100 WPM, then LLMs are kind of making that obsolete.

If your main skill is balancing requirements, making judgement calls, and reviewing code for correctness, then LLMs are going to help you work a lot faster.