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Can it get 10x better with the current approach though? As it is trained with content written by humans isn't that a natural ceiling ?

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It's possible we're at the limit, but there's also no inherent reason it couldn't be better than humans. Its limits seem to be tied to conceptual capacity, not training material. We've seen it generate output that was its input combined in novel ways, and not found anywhere else. AlphaGo is a clear-cut case of this.

Of course, the history of AI is one of punctuated equilibrium, so it might be 30-50 years before the next 10x advance shows up, with nothing very interesting happening in the meantime.

But my thinking is that 30-50 years isn't that long, compared to the magnitude of the changes in the nature of knowledge work that may become possible.

Unless you're religious or a UFO cultist, what non-human-authored content is available for anyone, including humans, to learn from?

Individual human knowledge workers aren't limited by the breadth and depth of available knowledge, the way they were up to about 100 years ago, but by their ability to assimilate and leverage it. That's also what limits the machine models. But the models will keep getting better, while we won't.

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