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I don't know. Having the theoretical and experimental physics talent was a necessary condition for producing the atomic bomb, but was not sufficient. What was lacking was a government willing and able to commit to a crash program building the novel industrial base for isotope separation, radiochemical separation, and all the other things detailed in Rhodes' (and others books).

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It's true that the NAZI govt thought the war would be won or lost in a couple of years, so longer programs weren't much valued. But they invested in rockets which didn't come into play quickly. The German physicists told the govt the bomb was far off; but there's every reason to think the scientists knew better and deliberately fudged their calculations.

Agreed that this is low probability. But it did strike me that the Nazi brass were most interested in such a crash program, at one point declaring that it should be given top priority. What dissuaded them were the apparent failures of early efforts and lack of confidence of the scientists themselves — the scientists got hung up on use of heavy water as a neutron moderator, among other suboptimal practical decisions.

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