It is a substitute to an actual firewall because I don't need a firewall since NAT makes all of my listening ports unavailable to my WAN.
So say Alice is behind a crappy NAT and wants to talk to Bob. Alice's router opens a port on its edge, lets say 1234, and sends traffic to Bob on port 80.
Let's say Charles knows Alice's IP address. Charles starts spamming Alice's router, eventually hitting port 1234 with bad data.
Alice's router is dumb. It sees traffic on port 1234, checks its NAT table, and sees that data is supposed to go to Alice. It happily rewrites that packet and passes it along to Alice. Now Alice is getting traffic from Bob *and* Charles. Uh oh!
Many game consoles are explicitly designed around this bad, broken behavior. You'll open a port to the matchmaking server and then the matchmaking server will tell people to connect to that IP address and port combination. Crappy home routers will happily route that data through its NAT configuration to the console despite the console never explicitly opening up traffic to those other parties. This is why some game consoles will complain about closed NAT versus open NAT.
A naive NAT implementation can allow an attacker to bypass the firewall.
While in principle that is possible, in practice almost all home routers are based on Linux, and Linux netfilter NAT implementation distinguish connections based on port and IP, not just port, so this would not work.
BT, one of the largest ISP's in the UK, only allow the configuration of destination IP and external/internal ports[0].
I've never expected my NAT to do anything other than map ports. I can see why the ability to map source IPs to different ports would be useful but relying on that as a security feature feels like a foot-gun. I wouldn't feel comfortable exposing an application that doesn't have some form of authentication and/or blacklisting.
[0] https://portforward.com/bt/home-hub-6/Port%20Forwarding.jpg
The poke a hole to outside world to a random server, log the port allocated to you by your router and have someone else use this to connect to you is the basis of STUN protocol.
NAT is not a substitute for a firewall.
I don't understand why you'd need a firewall if
- you trust devices on your network (yes, big if, but even then: the only reachable ports of a machine from the outside are those explicitly open to the outside, most stuff listens to 127.0.0.1 anyway)
- you only configure your NAT to forward ports you would open on your firewall
I didn't think of my cable modem as a firewall. Maybe technically it has one to provide the feature of blocking access to its web interface from the world, or maybe it just listens to the right network. I don't know, but for all intent and purposes, setting up a firewall myself does not seem necessary.
To be fair, I was also a bit annoyed by staringback's phrasing.