Social network content moderators have been known to take bribes[0][1]. The fact that there was a manual DMCA review involved makes this more sus
[0]: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/08/lawsuits-onlyfan...
[1]: https://calcoastnews.com/2022/08/former-twitter-employee-con...
Occam's Razor would be incompetence. Either an automated system is not allowing proper processing of the counter-notice or someone reviewing the situation doesn't understand the license.
A conspiracy would be the opposite of Occam's Razor.
(This reminds me of Russian milicemen obviously trying to extract bribes from European tourists, the tourists being completely oblivious as to what is going on, and not understanding what the milicemen are very not subtly hinting at that any Russian would immediately recognize, while the milicemen are increasingly getting frustrated at their usual tactics somehow failing to work...)
> Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
If the actions are clear cut malice, then maybe a conspiracy could be considered the simplest explanation.