Look out, Nissan Leaf: Tesla S will sell for under $50,000, run for 160 miles | Hacker News Reader

Look out, Nissan Leaf: Tesla S will sell for under $50,000, run for 160 miles

extremetech.com

56 pointsevo_944 comments

Worth mentioning that they're already sold out of cars next year and are expecting to turn a profit by 2013:

http://www.mercurynews.com/cars/ci_19219782

That's impressive for a company that requires that kind of capital investment (R&D, manufacturing facilities, tons of engineers, etc..)

That is worth mentioning. I smell an underserved market.

> Wouldn’t you rather contribute to a cleaner environment with an electric car that looks like a Maserati than with an electric bubble car styled to look at home disgorging a dozen circus performers?

You would think - but I believe it was Freakonomics that did a story wherein they discovered that a large part of the Prius' success over other hybrids was due to its unique and recognizable styling. It's a very visible way to broadcast your eco-credibility.

> You would think - but I believe it was Freakonomics that did a story wherein they discovered that a large part of the Prius' success over other hybrids was due to its unique and recognizable styling.

That "success over other hybrids" is local. Specifically, the freaonomics folks found that the market share of hybrids that don't look different is pretty much constant across the US. The prius, which is distinctive, doesn't sell like that. Its market share seems to vary with the dominant political party - it's very popular in Dem regions and just average in Repub regions.

At $50,000 v $27,700 for the Nissan Leaf, the Tesla S is also targeting a different type of buyer, too. The article is almost like comparing a Toyota Camry buyer with a Lexus GS 350 buyer - they're similar but not the same.

No, the Tesla doesn't sell for "under $50k". It might cost some buyers that after a tax credit, but other buyers might not be eligible for that credit or the full amount of the credit.

Carping I know but:

The car might go that far in daylight if it isn't raining and the batteries are fresh - oh and you do not go very fast...

Plus Tesla are hardly a volume car company - very few cars on the road when you take all the fuss into account - Tesla produces publicity rather more than cars.

Tesla produces publicity rather more than cars.

Very well said! Tesla is in the business of marketing their brand and begging for corporate welfare, they only manage to build products as a side-effect.

And yet their products are the best there are.

By which objective system of measurement do you make this claim? I'm curious.

They're currently the only pure electrics that I know of with a range that will get me to the airport and back without a charge (the Leaf has an EPA tested range of 73 miles). The performance is incomparable. Fit and finish is good. They're expensive, but if we're just talking quality here, I think it can be objectively said that they're the best of that small field.

In the meantime, Nissan sold more than 20,000 Leafs. That's tiny compared to the 2 million Priuses sold, but it's still 10 times the number of Roadsters out there.

You do realize that they're not at all comparable, right? The Roadster was a luxury sports car (and having ridden in one, it is batshit insane how fast it is), and it's priced in that range. They're hand-built. They were never meant to be a volume car, they were meant to build a brand, which they've done quite successfully.

Now comes the second phase, where Tesla makes a luxury sedan that seats 7 and has the 0-60 times of a 500 horsepower BMW M5. I don't know about you, but I plan on buying one as soon as I can, and I bet a lot of other people do to. I wouldn't buy the Leaf at half the price, because it has an unusable range. Model S doesn't have that problem.

That's true, but my (poorly-made) point was that the Leaf is an actual mass-produced car, delivered to real customers. Creating a niche, hand-made product is in itself hard, but it's the jump to mass production that has killed most new car manufacturers. I hope you are able to buy a Model S in the not-too-distant future, but I wouldn't count on it.

Ah I see, "one's real and one's not real yet". That's fair, only time will tell how the Model S works out in mass production.

Don't we all win when there is an electric at every price level? With lots of competition?

Half of the cost of these cars is the battery - we really need some kind of battery price/performance breakthrough ASAP but sadly it still looks like mostly a slow evolution rather than a revolution.

Someone who lives near me has one of the Tesla Roadster. The only reason I know that is because I've seen the car outside with a Tesla technician working on it. He's got a Tesla uniform and the van is labeled.

On the one hand, nice that they come to you. On the other hand, it seems like it's getting serviced a lot relative to the time being driven.

A good friend of mine bought one of the first Tesla Roadsters. I remember when it was delivered at midnight, and we took a test drive. Executive summary: Oh. My. God.

He's had a service guy several times, but only once has it been for an actual problem as I recall - the remainder were initiated by Tesla to head-off problems they'd found on other vehicles I suppose. Tesla has been very communicative with him the whole time.

I'd totally lease one to try it out and see if it fits my lifestyle and availability of charging stations in my city.

Speaking of leases I'd like to see more people leasing cars over buying them. It would lead to less old cars being on the road and better up-take of electric vehicles. There are weeks or months when I rarely drive (I'm travelling or over the summer months when I'd rather cycle). ZipCar et al are great to see existing but cover a tiny, tiny niche. If there were some kind of subsidy in the lease direction we'd probably also see better prices. I guess car ownership in the U.S. is too far embedded though for this to really change but I bet if leases were tax-deducible on a personal level we'd see something happen quickly on that front.

It isn't as I'd the off lease used cars jut disappear. They get sold -- no one leases 2-5yo used cars, but buying a nice $50k car used after 2y of lease with better than new warranty and service for 25-30k and keeping it for 5-10y seems to be working pretty well for me.

What you'd really need for leases to get old cars off the road is a design for refurbishment and upgrade, like military vehicles, aircraft, etc. It is reasonable to think electric cars may go that way, with drivetrain swapped out for a new one, but that kind of design usually increases weight and cost. It probably makes sense to just sell used cars at a discount, or to scrap them.

The only way to get used cars off the road is a progressive inspection and road tax system like in Japan, and even them most of the old cars get exported and driven elsewhere.

I've considered buying a $50K car used after 2 years. Are there any brands you recommend sticking to when going this route? I know some of them just gouge you on the maintenance costs after 30K miles or so.

You really need to look at the specific model, not just the brand. I think there are sites like Edmunds TCO and Consumer Reports which are good about model reliability.

I'm really happy with the Audi A4 (B7), made from 2006.5 to 2008, with the 2.0TSI engine. They're probably $10-25k used now.

leasing is a pretty huge commitment...I'd only do it for a car like this if the leasing companies allowed trading leases through sites like leasetrader etc

They need to keep making the roadster.

I spoke with a representative at their Santa Monica dealership. The Roadster was a joint venture with Lotus (who manufactured the body). Their contract is just about over. As of now, the Tesla Roadster as we know it will not be manufactured any longer. The Model S is an in-house design. After the Model S, they will work on an even larger vehicle, and then a remake of the Roadster, most likely built on the Model S platform. The Roadster will likely be back, but in a different form.

While I appreciate the progress and ever-decreasing costs of EVs, does anybody else wish some car manufacturer would produce, you know, a normal-looking electric car in the $25k-$35k range? Most EVs resemble futuristic sex toys more than they do conventional automobiles.

Edit: I should point out that the Tesla Model S has a tasteful look, but is a bit too fancy pants for me at the moment.

Agreed. I can afford to own a nice-ish ($40-50k) vehicle but I would rather not attract undue attention to myself, nor do I want to pay an assload of money in car insurance, so I drive a relatively POS subcompact that is great on gas and easy to park on packed city streets.

I'm in the same boat, but the solution I found was to drive a old-ish entry-level German car. As badly as I wanted to lease a new M3, six months ago I got a 2005 Audi A4 ("Special Edition" meaning it was factory lowered) instead. It looks snappy and sharp, but does not scream "look at me and my money!"

(I also had it chipped, but that's for sheer driving pleasure and isn't visible by looking at it, obviously).

> old-ish entry-level German car... 2005 Audi A4

Funny... I just bought a new-ish German luxury sedan: 2004 Audi A4. It is newest and most expensive car I have ever owned.

Perspective is a weird thing...

Not at all. Mine's the same design as yours (B6 chassis), and I'd say they're both equally "new" or "old." When I started looking, I thought 2002+ was "new" until I saw the used car market, and that's when I realized that when you're talking about money (and that's really what counts), then only 2009 (possibly 2008) is actually "new" meaning that you'll pay the "new model" premium.

I love my A4. I'm glad I made the "compromise" and got it.

BTW, my primary reason for getting the A4 is because the B6 design is (IMHO) the only 2002-2005 family of cars that actually do not look even remotely dated. Non-car-enthusiasts would not recognize a B6 design as being 10 years old. Audi really did a great job getting ahead of the curve with that design, esp. when (today) you compare a 2002 BMW/Mercedes/Lexus/Infiniti to the 2002 Audi models, you see what I mean: the latter group is distinctly "older looking."

I have a 2006.5 a4 (b7), and I'm always amazed driving around to like the b6 just as much. The only thing keeping me from driving this car until it completely falls apart in 10y is the relatively dated navigation system, lack of realtime traffic, etc. I'll probably get a model s and keep the a4 for road trips and a second car for my girlfriend to drive.

Haha, I want to do the same. Model S is sooooo sexy, and I'd keep the B6 for road trips.

WRT the navigation: just get a 100 dollar Nuvi w/ realtime traffic. My B6 doesn't have the in-dash navigation in the first place, but the Garmin's a really nice product.

In SF, you can't leave anything in the cabin of the car, or meth faeries will break in (costing hundreds to replace windows) and stealing a $1-2 item. Removing and replacing the nav system every time I use the car would get really annoying, or if I loan it to someone else who doesn't do so, so I'd have to factor in the inconvenience of replacing the glass several times per year.

Plus, the internal inputs into built-in nav are a big plus; it works a little bit better than the aftermarket stuff, and having turns on the driver information display is worth it to me too.

What would really make sense is a Model S for around here, and then getting a TDI (I wish they sold the A4 TDI in the USA, but a VW Passat or A3) for really long trips. I get about 28-30mpg on highways at 75mph in my A4 (with APR chip, and about 100k miles), but that's with premium fuel. But I guess depreciation dominates fuel cost for a while longer.

Funny how Chicago gets such a bad rep, but I have no problem leaving the GPS in the car if I just turn it off (stupid how German cars still can't power down the 12V outlet when you turn off the engine.. that and cup holders.)

What would make for a great long-distance car here in the States would be the 335d. If you get the Model S in 2013 or so, a 5 year old 335d should be around the right price for the taking. I got my A4 chip'd as well, seeing the same mileage. Four dollars at the pump seems like a fair enough tradeoff for me (15 gallons at ~25 cents more).

Yeah, I'd have a 335d if they made it in coupe form in the USA. 335d sedan is a nice car too, but the 335 coupe is just so beautiful. With military/contractor discounts, BMWs in Europe (which then get shipped back to the USA) aren't a bad deal new, either.

My real long-term (5-10 year) goal is to make enough money and have enough time to have a CH-801 (STOL piston, diesel engine) aircraft, about $100-200k, for flying SFO to Reno or Oregon, and then eventually a HondaJet to fly to Vancouver, central Washington, dive sites in Socal, etc.

My point was that your "entry level" car was the same as my "luxury sedan".

My previous ride was a 1990 BMW 535I and before that a 1982 Mercedes. Both purchased when they were over 15 years old and both for less than $3k so paying closer to $10k was quite. Move up.

And I agree that the b6 is the pinnacle of Audi style (at least currently). The b7 and b8 front ends are uglo-cars IMHO. I'm hoping to keep this car for as long as I can. I'm even looking to pick up a spare motor in case mine blows up (I'm getting current one chipped next week).

Oh. "entry-level" is objective, not subjective. Meant 3-series vs 5/7-series and A4 vs A6/A8.

Here ya go: The Mitsubishi Miev is $22-25K( http://i.mitsubishicars.com/?cid=PS_100611_GoogleiMiev_20111... ). It only goes 60 miles on a charge, but it's a good start...

I'm not sure that quite qualifies as "normal looking"...

The batteries are massively expensive to make, so the cost of making the cars high end is nothing compared to the price of batteries.

Really, these Tesla 50k cars are probably around 35k battery, 10k frame and body, 5k everything else. It is why the 240 mile and 300 mile versions are each respectively 10k more expensive.

One thing nobody seems to be talking about is how these vehicles have much shorter livespans than a well maintained gas guzzler. The batteries only have around 100k charge cycles, and I read somewhere that the reality is the batteries of electric cars half their charge life in 5 years, and probably need replaced by 8.

> One thing nobody seems to be talking about is how these vehicles have much shorter livespans than a well maintained gas guzzler. The batteries only have around 100k charge cycles, and I read somewhere that the reality is the batteries of electric cars half their charge life in 5 years, and probably need replaced by 8.

You ignore that modern gas engines require fixing/replacement of clutches, transmissions, engine rebuilds etc. that an electric vehicle don't need/have. Those things wear out faster than a HV battery.

I know folks with 10+ year old Prius who still get 45+ MPG.

Finally Tesla warranties the battery for 8 years [1]. So after 8 years you might have to replace the battery, and the cost of which (given the rise of electric cars) will have gone down considerably.

[1] http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/model-s-update-pricing-and-o...

Make a convertible option and I'll buy one.

Does this figure include government subsidies? Let's just say that I'll believe it when I see it.

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