There's going to be more to the "EU-U.S." situation, like if you're doing anything energy intensive, need petrochemical feed stocks or natural gas to make fertilizer, you might do like BASF started some time ago and expand in the US instead of the EU or U.K. The latter's natural gas market reached crisis level in September 2021 as we can see from CF Industries shutting down their fertilizer plants.

And if the EU plus U.K. deindustralizes and can't afford fertilizer for their farms that "importing more goods" from them is likely to reverse. They could even become even less reliable than the PRC.

According to the fine article there's more going on, Vietnamese exports are also suffering, a likely big factor is demand destruction from much of the world going into recession. Going back to my energy theme and this is also hitting the US, households paying a lot more for energy have less money for goods made in East Asia.

The other interesting data point is:

"Germany’s exports to the U.S. were almost 50% higher in September year over year. Germany’s mechanical engineering sector has boosted its exports to the U.S. by almost 20% in a year over year comparison of the first nine months of 2022, according to Project 44."