I bet it’s less than 7 years total and probably serves less than 5. Our justice system is weak on white collar crime and SBF is politically connected.
He'll also be charged federally. There is no federal parole.
Elizabeth Holmes committed worse crimes and got a slap on the wrist--mostly because the was stealing from the elite. People are going to forget all about SBF and he'll get charged in a few years and get forgotten until he times some meager sentence and then re-emerges a few years later as the new Jordan Belfort, probably selling some new get rich quick scheme.
Unless his sentence is commuted, its not possible for a 7 year federal sentence to result in release in 5; there is no federal parole, and good conduct time is limited to 54 days per year.