I've heard some talk that some of the PG&E caused fires are due to the grids not getting enough time to cool and accelerating failures. Note that this doesn't excuse their lack of investment in infrastructure.
Basically, we need to hugely over provision the grid to handle 24/7 loading without the current failure modes. That will require a complete rethink on what constitutes the base load, how solar can help and how it can't, etc.
Source?
It seems plausible but I have nothing more than that.
Edit: I don't think the grid being hot would cause a fire, to be clear. I'm under the impression that it causes the lines to sag, increasing the occurrence of the primary mode of wildfire cause, vegetation contact. Further, running the transformers hotter shortens their life (as it does with most electrical equipment).
The transmission infrastructure needs cooling off time, not the generation.
Base load has to be completely changed if we consider charging EV's at a population level, which changes how we look at renewables that aren't around the clock (i.e. solar).
To be clear I'm 100% behind getting rid of ICE, coal, gas, etc. as soon as we can. That doesn't mean there aren't assumptions that won't have to be challenged.
As for my background and experience, I worked in Nuclear Power generation. I'm not a complete domain expert, but neither am I speaking from a place of no experience.
IIRC, the big concern with cooling off time was not simply due to high loads, but rather high loads combined with high ambient temperatures at night. I.e. it wasn't so much of a concern in places that dropped below 80F overnight.
In either case I don't see it as a big deal. Power companies exist to sell us power, they'll figure it out.
That implies the issue is far worse than you seem to think.
Also, a glib "they'll figure it out" is less than a step removed from sticking your head in the sand. You don't have to be a domain expert to learn and understand the first order principles at issue here.
The limit is regulation, not technical. Often the law doesn't allow them to build the lines where they need to.
If every car in Germany would be an EV the battery capacity could power all of Germanys electric power needs for two days.
Things are more complex than they seem to be at first sight.
Your claim of batteries powering a gigawatt scale grid for two days does not pass the smell test. Something is off so it might help to show calculations or sources.
What smell test? What doesn't specifically sound right?
I might have miscalculated of course,
50M cars x 50kwh = 2500Gwh = 2.5Twh
Germany Electricty usage:
561,8 Twh/ year -> /365 = 1.54Twh / day
So two days ~3TwH, Battery capacity ~2.5Twh
I would be interested in any corrections, especially as you are a renewable energy researcher and I'm just a coder.
Wires themselves last longer, but the poles, insulation (a big problem underground), transformers, breakers, and all the other parts don't and get replaced all the time.
Most neighborhoods.are fine, with just smaller taps to bring more power in. They have years to fix this.
https://insideevs.com/news/436665/24-million-evs-limit-curre...
2021 sales were less that 1% of that. At what point does the bottleneck kick in? I would imagine electric utilities have a huge incentive to make this work given that demand has been flat at ~4 trillion kWh for over a decade.
I don't know about the US, but in the UK electricity demand has dropped ~20% in the past 10 years. (10% in 7 years if you want to avoid covid etc) Adding in the fact that EVs are more likely to be charged off peak and I'd be surprised if it made any appreciable difference.
Your observation is correct - the grid as designed is indeed a bottleneck and this will become increasingly obvious in northern climates as more services switch to electric - heat and transportation are good examples. An excellent case in point is the trans canada highway which has failed to electrify large sections due to insufficient grid capacity. Before people point to a map from an auto maker, do those maps show instances where the power feeding EV chargers has overloaded a circuit causing multiple hours of no charging?
Cheaper electricity should indeed be a short term goal.
They have these devices for AC units already, but it could be so much smarter.