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The logic worked for 29999 years, which is the whole point. It's like the German Tank Problem[0], but for lifespans.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_tank_problem

that's exactly why it's counter-intuitive! Obviously it can't be right forever, but at any given moment if you need predict the minimum future life span of a book, framework, language, job, country, whatever and you have very limited information it turns out that just predicting the thing's age will often be a reasonable prediction -- probability is hard!

A "good predictor" doesn't need 100% accuracy.

Rather looks like 10% accuracy in this case

Weapon smiths might be gone but weapons manufacturing is as big or even bigger than ever in history. So until humanity does a fundamental shift and stops all armed conflicts, it is as safe job as any.

> Weapon smiths might be gone but weapons manufacturing is as big or even bigger than ever in history

That's called moving goalposts