The more I read about Mastodon, the more I think wont' take off (unless a deep redesign will be done) and the more I think ActivityPub will succeed.

The problem with Twitter and Mastodon is that they both are based on poor abstractions of how humans communicate. They just don't model it well enough. For instance, they completely ignore the basic fact that one person can have multiple interests and communicates with different groups of people depending on interests. Humans are multifaceted things, after all.

Another problem is with monetization. There must be paid instances of Mastodon or whatever federated it will be replaced with. Techno-communizm won't work, we've seen it so many times. Yet, here we are again.